In 2022, the popularity of the convertible bond market will not decrease, and the convertible bonds below


  100 yuan are hard to find

  In 2022, the convertible bond market will remain hot.

The reporter sorted out and found that there are no convertible bonds below 100 yuan in the current market. According to the data of Oriental Fortune Choice, as of the close of January 11, the current price of convertible bonds is not less than 100 yuan per piece. , 17 convertible bonds have a conversion premium rate of over 100%, and only 8 convertible bonds have a negative conversion premium rate.

  According to the analysis of industry insiders, the overall risk of the current convertible bond market has increased. There are few convertible bonds with low price and low conversion premium rate. It is more difficult to find cost-effective investment targets. Debt, especially high-quality new bonds, new opportunities.

In addition, pay attention to avoiding market risks, but you can also pay attention to the varieties with good upside potential for underlying stocks (such as consumption, new energy, etc.) and low conversion premium rates. Such convertible bonds may have more opportunities for growth.

Text, watch/Wang Chuhan, all media reporter of Guangzhou Daily

  Concern 1: The current price of convertible bonds is not less than 100 yuan, and the overall risk of the market has increased

  The reporter noticed that the data from the choice of Oriental Fortune showed that as of the close on January 11, the current price of convertible bonds was not less than 100 yuan/piece. Among them, Enjie convertible bonds, Jingrui convertible bonds, China Mining convertible bonds, Mingtai convertible bonds The current price of convertible bonds and quartz convertible bonds is as high as 400 yuan/piece.

At the same time, as of the close of trading on January 11, the conversion premium rate of 17 convertible bonds exceeded 100%, and the conversion premium rate of only 8 convertible bonds was negative.

  "At present, the price of convertible bonds has risen to more than 100 yuan, the conversion premium rate of most convertible bonds is above 10%, and the median conversion premium rate of existing convertible bonds has reached 25%. We judge the overall risk of the convertible bond market. There has been an increase, and there are few convertible bonds with low price and low conversion premium rate, and it is more difficult to find cost-effective investment targets." Luo Zhiheng, deputy dean and chief macro analyst of Yuekai Securities Research Institute, reminded.

  Luo Zhiheng analyzed that the current market price of convertible bonds is generally higher, continuing the rising market since November 2021. The structure is reflected in the relatively low price and high conversion premium rate. It reflects the influence of funds and other institutional investors on the increase in the allocation of convertible bonds, and the "profit-making effect" brought about by the recent structural strengthening of convertible bonds.

  The reporter noticed that due to the strength of the secondary market for convertible bonds, investors showed great enthusiasm for the purchase of convertible bonds.

The two convertible bonds issued in the first week of this year have more than 11 million households participating in online new sales.

"Convertible bonds, as corporate bonds that can be converted into stocks, are friendly to newbies, with a bottom in the fall, no top in the rise, and can be attacked and defended, and can obtain higher returns with a lower risk. This is also a manifestation of the high cost-effective value of convertible bonds with unequal risk and return." He Jinlong, general manager of Umily Investments, said.

  Concern 2: Some convertible bonds are facing foreclosure recently in individual industries or showing a phenomenon of killing premiums

  It is worth noting that some convertible bonds are facing foreclosure recently.

On the evening of January 9, Binhua Co., Ltd. issued the sixth reminder announcement on the redemption of "Binhua Convertible Bonds".

According to the announcement, the redemption targets are all holders of "Binhua Convertible Bonds" registered with the Shanghai Branch of China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited after the market closes on January 10, and the redemption price is RMB 100.378 per piece ( face value of the bond and accrued interest for the current period).

  The reporter noticed that as of the close of trading on January 10, Binhua convertible bonds closed at 169.20 yuan/piece. If investors do not sell or convert shares before the market closes on January 10, they will be forced to redeem, and the direct loss will exceed 20%. 40%.

In addition to Binhua Convertible Bonds, "Junda Convertible Bonds" also announced the intention of forced redemption. Zhengyuan Wisdom and Xintian Pharmaceutical also recently announced that if the relevant redemption clauses are triggered in the future, corresponding redemption will be carried out. back.

  "The foreclosure of convertible bonds is the issuer's right. But whether or not to enforce the right depends on the demands of the listed company. Because the interest of convertible bonds is low before and then high, some listed companies are under little financial pressure and may not go Choose redemption to avoid premature dilution of the share capital." said Xia Fengguang, fund manager of the private equity Pai Pai network.

  He Jinlong reminded that investors should pay attention to the risks of convertible bonds that are close to forced redemption. For convertible bonds that are not forcibly redeemed, the market will often give them some premium; on the contrary, once the forced redemption is announced, it will be highly correlated with the underlying stock. Sexuality will gradually bring about an effect of the price returning to the conversion value in the process of the return of the premium rate.

Due to the high correlation coefficient between convertible bonds and their underlying stocks, investors should pay attention to the risk of high-priced bonds falling with the decline of underlying stocks.

Furthermore, the market share conversion premium rate shows a differentiation effect, and it cannot be ruled out that some industries are showing the phenomenon of killing the premium.

  Outlook:

  It is expected that the market will remain high in the first half of the year. Investors need to pay close attention to the fundamentals of the underlying stocks.

  Luo Zhiheng analyzed that the convertible bond market is currently in a stage of high risk and opportunity. Risk one is that the conversion premium rate and pure bond premium rate of convertible bonds have reached historically high levels, and the high valuation level has brought downward pressure.

The second risk is that under the influence of equity market style switching and changes in risk appetite, the underlying stock price has the risk of correction.

The third risk is that some convertible bonds trigger mandatory redemption conditions.

However, the opportunities in the convertible bond market are clearer, and the shortage of supply in the convertible bond market drives prices to continue to rise, mainly due to factors such as the low scale of new issuance, restrictions on holding reductions, and rising allocation demands from institutional investors such as funds.

  Looking forward to the market outlook, Luo Zhiheng said that due to the prominent characteristics of the market in short supply, the convertible bond market is expected to maintain a high level in the first half of this year. If the issuance of new convertible bonds is accelerated in the second half of the year, it may face adjustment pressure.

Investors are advised to focus on seizing new opportunities for newly issued convertible bonds, especially high-quality new bonds, this year.

In addition, individual investors should pay attention to avoiding market risks, but they can also pay attention to the varieties with good upside potential for underlying stocks (such as consumption, new energy, etc.) and low conversion premium rates. Such convertible bonds may have more rises Chance.

  For convertible bond holders, Xia Fengguang reminded that the current convertible bond market has eliminated varieties with a face value of less than 100 yuan, the average conversion premium rate is about 35%, and the yield to maturity is negative 5.4%.

This has shown that the current convertible bond market generally no longer has the protection of the debt bottom, and the linkage with the underlying stock has been greatly enhanced.

Therefore, in the current investment in convertible bonds, it is necessary to pay close attention to the fundamentals of the underlying stock, and also need to study the terms in depth, and make a reasonable choice between the underlying stock and the convertible bond.

As investors pay more attention to the convertible bond market and the size of the convertible bond market continues to expand, it is expected to remain active.

However, it is more difficult to reproduce the large-scale general increase in convertible bonds last year and the general increase in valuation.