Covid-19: the economy has "good resistance" to the Omicron wave

Europe 1 with AFP 10:42 p.m., January 11, 2022

The French economy has "good resistance" to the wave of the Omicron variant, despite fears of business disorganization, and activity is expected to stabilize in January, according to the Banque de France economic report published on Tuesday.

Growth on the rise

Growth amounted to 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2021 compared to the previous one, confirming the forecast of an increase in gross domestic product of 6.7% for the whole year, also indicated the director. general of the central bank, Olivier Garnier, during a press briefing.

According to the results of the last monthly survey carried out among 8,500 business leaders from December 20 to January 6, gross domestic product (GDP) should be in January, as already in December, 0.75% higher than its level of early 2020, before the health crisis linked to Covid 19.

But the uncertainty indicator is on the rise again, especially in services.

This indicator is produced using a “text mining” algorithm which identifies “words which indicate uncertainty” in interviews between investigators and business leaders, explained Olivier Garnier.

The outlook nonetheless remains favorable.

Strong disparities

For the month of January, "in the industry as in the building one always has order books which are well above the historical average", according to him. He nevertheless notes that in the automobile industry, as well as in computers and electronics, we expect "a decline in activity which is not directly attributable to the Omicron wave but to the persistence of supply difficulties. , in particular in the field of semiconductors ".

For services, the economic report forecasts a slight decline in activity, with strong disparities between "temporary work and business services, which are well oriented", and conversely accommodation, catering and the sector. of events, which report a "strong deterioration in connection with the health context".

Thus, for accommodation, activity should stand at 64% of the pre-crisis level at the start of the year, against 80% in the fourth quarter of 2021, while in catering, it would decrease at the same time by 85% to 75%.

For the month of December, the survey revealed growth in both industry and services, as well as, to a lesser extent, in construction.

In industry, the production capacity utilization rate is higher in November and December than the 15-year average in all sectors, except automotive and aeronautics.