Just now, Ren Zeping responded to the suggestion that the central bank should print an extra 2 trillion yuan: not a temporary initiative

　　Sino-Singapore Jingwei, January 10th. On the 10th, the #economist suggested that the central bank print more than 2 trillion# topic rushed to the hot search, with over 80 million readings. Ren Zeping, who initiated the proposal, proposed to establish an encouragement fund as soon as possible, and the central bank to print more 2 trillion. In 10 years, the society will give birth to 50 million more children, and solve the problem of population aging and low birth rate.

　　In response to the online controversy, Ren Zeping's latest response said,

　　In response to the proposal to establish a fertility encouragement fund and "print money to have babies", Ren Zeping responded to the hotly debated questions as follows:

1. How did the 50 million born in the next 10 years come from?

That's an extra 5 million births every year.

In 2021, the comprehensive fertility rate will be 1.1, and the number of newborns will be around 10 million, while the intergenerational balance needs to be 15 million per year, that is, 5 million more births per year.

2. How to calculate the 2 trillion printed by the central bank?

OECD countries encourage family social welfare expenditures related to childbirth to account for 2%-3% of GDP. China's GDP is 110 trillion, so the encouragement fund should be 2 trillion. At least, note that an additional 2 trillion is printed every year to encourage childbirth.

3. Why is the central bank printing 2 trillion yuan instead of out of the fiscal budget?

Because of the current epidemic, the downward pressure on the economy, and the sharp decline in land finance, the government, enterprises and families have no money, so they print money to have children.

4. Will it lead to inflation and rising house prices?

No, it's for exclusive use.

In the short term, it will help increase demand and stabilize growth, and in the long run, it will contribute to social vitality and long-term healthy economic development.

5. Will there be unfairness?

No, there is a cost to giving birth to a child, and the child born is the future builder of the country. It is unfair not to give encouragement support and cash subsidies.

Isn't it rewarding for not having children?

Specifically, it can be different for different income families. High-income families receive less childcare subsidies, while low-income families receive more childcare subsidies.

6. This suggestion is not a temporary initiative. It is based on our previous research in the "China Population Situation Report", "China Fertility Report", "China Population Forecast Report 2021 Edition", "German Population Report", "Japanese Population Report" and "US Population Report". The result is obtained after years of research and exploration and comparison with international experience, and it has been scientifically demonstrated.

Encouraging fertility funds, printing money to have children, it sounds very exciting at first, but it makes sense when you think about it.

Just like our call for "letting go of the third child" in 2020, 560 million readings on the entire Internet have moved from academic discussion to social consensus and public policy.

7. The solution to low fertility has been found, and it will be implemented as soon as possible.

With the spirit of a scientist and a constructive attitude, conduct research with warmth, compassion and responsibility.

　　On January 10, Ren Zeping's team issued a document saying that a fertility fund should be established as soon as possible, and 50 million children should be born in more than 10 years.

The article emphasizes that we must seize the time window of 75-85 years, and promptly introduce a fertility encouragement fund. If it is not introduced, it will be too late.

The reason is also very simple. This group of people from 1975 to 1985 still has the concept of having more children and more blessings, and "post-90s" and "post-00s" don't talk about having a second or third child. Many people don't even want to get married. .

　　In his early years, Ren Zeping served as the deputy director of the Research Office of the Macro Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council. In May 2014, he joined the macro team of Guotai Junan. He became famous for shouting "5000 points is not a dream".

In June 2016, Ren Zeping left Guotai Junan and joined Founder Securities.

A year later, Ren Zeping joined Evergrande Group as chief economist (vice president level) and president of Evergrande Economic Research Institute. At that time, it was rumored that his annual salary reached 15 million yuan before tax.

Since March 2021, Ren Zeping has resigned from Evergrande and served as the chief economist of Soochow Securities.

(Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)