Domestic production growth, import and alternative grains increase -
corn supply and demand continue to improve
. Our reporter Liu Hui
For the domestic corn market, 2021 is an extraordinary year.
At the beginning of the year, the relationship between supply and demand of corn was tense, and the price fluctuated, which aroused great concern.
Subsequently, the state comprehensively used a series of measures to develop corn production, increase the import of corn and its substitutes, and promote the reduction and substitution of feed grains, and achieved remarkable results. The relationship between supply and demand of corn gradually improved, and the price gradually returned to a reasonable range.
Domestic corn production continues to increase
At the end of 2021, although the price of corn in Northeast China has increased compared with the initial stage of listing, it still did not meet the psychological expectations of farmers.
Hou Gang, chairman of Yongxin Farmers Professional Cooperative in Tiexi District, Siping City, Jilin Province, told reporters that the cooperative will plant 10,000 mu of corn in 2021, with a yield of more than 1,600 catties per mu, which is higher than the previous year.
The price of local corn rose from 0.9 yuan per catty to 1.01 yuan per catty when it was just listed.
"In 2021, the prices of pesticides and chemical fertilizers will rise sharply, and the average cost of growing grains will increase by about 100 yuan per mu, which will basically offset some of the gains from rising grain prices." Hou Gang said.
Although the current corn price is still running at a high level, it has dropped compared with the same period last year.
Li Xigui, director of the Grain and Oil Monitoring Division of the National Grain and Oil Information Center, believes that the continuous improvement in the relationship between supply and demand is an important reason for the fall in corn prices.
From 2020 to 2021, my country will implement measures to stabilize the supply and supply of feed grains, make overall use of two markets and two resources, enhance the country's macro-control capabilities, and ensure the supply of domestic feed grain markets.
Affected by multiple factors such as the increase in domestic corn production, the increase in imported corn and substitute grains, and the increase in the substitution of domestic wheat and rice, the relationship between domestic corn supply and demand has been improved in stages.
With the support of national policies, the sown area and output of corn have continued to increase in the past two years.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, my country's corn output in 2021 will be 272.55 million tons, an increase of 11.9 million tons or 4.6% over the previous year. The gap between corn production and demand shows a narrowing trend.
The National Grain and Oil Information Center predicts that domestic corn production will increase from 2021 to 2022, the supply and demand situation will be further improved, and the domestic feed grain supply will be guaranteed.
At the same time, the state actively encourages food imports.
Data from the General Administration of Customs shows that in the first 11 months of 2021, my country imported 27.02 million tons of corn, 8.71 million tons of sorghum, and 11.46 million tons of barley.
Shen Hongyuan, director of the Research and Forecasting Department of Zhengzhou Grain Wholesale Market, believes that a moderate amount of imports of corn and its substitutes can quickly meet domestic consumption and processing needs and improve the structure of domestic corn reserves.
Through the actual arrival and shipment information of imported corn, the expectation of tight market supply and demand is improved, and the market supply and demand circulation can return to a healthy development track.
From the perspective of domestic wheat and rice substitution, the price of corn has been far ahead of the price of wheat and rice since 2020, making it possible for wheat and rice to replace corn as feed.
"Recently, the price comparison between wheat and corn has improved, which is conducive to expanding the amount of corn forage. Using more corn can not only ease the pressure of autumn grain purchases in Northeast China, protect farmers' enthusiasm for growing grains, but also help ensure food ration security." Li Xigui said.
Unfavorable impact of international price volatility
Affected by the raging epidemic, extreme weather, international capital speculation and other factors, global food prices will rise sharply in 2021, and my country's food import costs will increase significantly.
In the first 11 months of 2021, the average global corn trade volume is about 189 million tons, and my country imported 27.02 million tons of corn, accounting for about 14% of the global corn trade volume.
In August 2020, the international corn price rose sharply, and the Chicago corn futures price in the United States was more than 800 yuan per ton.
Affected by factors such as poor logistics caused by frequent epidemics, rising commodity prices, and climate disasters in major producing countries, the price of Chicago corn futures in May 2021 will rise to a maximum of 1,842 yuan per ton.
At present, the supply in the global corn market is relatively loose, creating favorable conditions for my country to fully utilize the two markets and two resources to meet domestic demand.
According to data from the United States Department of Agriculture, global corn production has shown a steady upward trend in the past 10 years, and is expected to reach 1.208 billion tons in 2021.
"The continuous increase in corn production in my country not only helps to improve the relationship between domestic supply and demand, but also makes an important contribution to maintaining the stability of the world corn market." Shen Hongyuan said.
Build a diversified feed supply system
In recent years, the consumption of feed grains in my country has continued to grow, and now it has exceeded 40% of the total consumption of grains.
With the further upgrade of residents' consumption, the problem of feed grain shortage has become more and more prominent.
Experts suggest that a multi-pronged approach should be taken to solve the problem of feed grain shortages.
To solve the shortage of feed grains, it is necessary to stabilize the area and output of corn.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has clearly put forward the agricultural production goals of "stabilizing grain rations, stabilizing corn, expanding soybeans, and expanding oil crops", which means that my country's corn sown area and output will not only not decline in 2022, but may continue to increase.
From the central to the local level, it is necessary to maximize the potential for stable and increased corn production, and at the same time, try to reduce the cost of food production, and mobilize and protect farmers' enthusiasm for growing corn.
Experts suggest that multiple measures should be taken to reduce the use of feed grains.
Vigorously develop silage, actively promote cattle and sheep breeding, and adjust the structure of meat consumption, so as to moderately reduce the consumption of feed grains.
Improve feed formulations and reduce soybean meal feed requirements.
Gradually build a diversified feed grain import pattern to reduce the risk of grain import.
On the one hand, to promote the diversification of feed grain import sources.
In addition to importing grain from major grain-producing countries such as the United States, Brazil, and Argentina, the quantity of imports from countries along the “Belt and Road” should also be increased.
On the other hand, it is necessary to promote the diversification of imported food varieties.
Expand the variety of imported feed grains, such as expanding the import of sorghum, barley, broken rice, dried cassava, distiller's grains, etc., to ease the purchasing pressure in the international market.
Enhance global food supply chain management capabilities.
Actively encourage and support domestic grain enterprises to "go global", develop overseas planting and processing, seed industry research and development, and enterprise shareholding in countries along the "Belt and Road", and build a global grain industry supply chain.
Taking advantage of my country's super-large market, combined with modern grain trading markets such as the futures market and the spot market, it is promoted by variety, and efforts are made to enhance my country's grain pricing power.