The Tokyo foreign exchange market on the 4th when the first transaction was made this year.

The yen depreciated rapidly, reaching the level of depreciation for the first time in about five years.

From the view that the interest rate differential between Japan and the United States will widen, the yen has been depreciating recently, but in fact, other factors have been pointed out.

That is "dollar shortage".

What does it mean to run out of dollars?

(Hiroshi Nakazawa, Reporter, Ministry of Economic Affairs)

The 4th when the first transaction was made this year.



The Nikkei Stock Average was off to a good start with a rise for the first time in four years, so I was worried about the movement of the stock price, but shortly after the morning transaction was over, 1 dollar = 1 dollar in the foreign exchange market The yen depreciated rapidly until the latter half of the 115 yen range.

Personally, I hadn't experienced the big movement of the yen during the lunch break, so I immediately interviewed the market participants.



Then, I heard "dollar shortage".

A dollar shortage is a condition in which the supply and demand of the dollar are compared and the demand is excessive.



Looking at the ratio of trade transactions by currency announced twice a year by the Ministry of Finance, the ratio of dollar settlement to the trade in the first half of last year was 47% for exports from Japan and imports to Japan. Then 66.6%.

In other words, assuming that imports and exports are about the same, the movement of exporters to sell dollars and buy yen is roughly 1.4 times larger than the movement of importers to sell yen and buy dollars. is showing.



Moreover, since August last year, Japan has had a trade deficit for four consecutive months against the backdrop of high crude oil prices, and imports have continued to exceed exports.

There is also a view that this trend will continue, and it is expected that demand for the dollar will increase further.

We rely on imports for much of our energy, food and metals, many of which are settled in dollars.

Airlines, food makers and others have to raise dollars to buy fuel and flour, no matter how much the yen depreciates to keep their business going.

According to estimates by Daisaku Ueno, chief exchange strategist of Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, the "dollar shortage" = excessive demand for one year is estimated to be about 12 trillion yen, and the calculation is 6 yen for one year. It means that it will be a scale that will lead to a degree of depreciation of the yen.



In addition, Mr. Ueno points out that this dollar shortage is also the reason why the yen's exchange rate shook significantly during the lunch break on January 4.



At that time, the long-term interest rates in Japan and the United States did not move, and there were no dignitaries' statements that would affect the market.

Mr. Ueno suspects that domestic importers may have begun to buy the dollars needed for payment during this time.



The depreciation of the yen due to the shortage of the dollar is usually inconspicuous, but the factors at the bottom of the market will have a significant impact on the yen's exchange rate on an annual basis.



The depreciation of the yen in the midst of high global resources and food prices will accelerate the rise in import prices.



The prices of foods that are already familiar to us have been raised one after another, and there are deep-rooted concerns about the "bad yen depreciation", which has more disadvantages, so this year is likely to be a year in which we cannot take our eyes off the trend of the yen.

Scheduled to pay attention

On the 11th, it will be announced which market of Prime Standard Growth companies have chosen before the TSE market restructuring in April.

About 90% of the current 2100 companies in the first division are expected to be the highest prime.



In addition, following bilateral talks between the United States and Russia over the situation in Ukraine, where military tensions continue, NATO = North Atlantic Treaty Organization and Russia will also hold talks.

It will be interesting to see if it will help mitigate geopolitical risks.