Investments and the stock market are in demand like rarely.

Even people are interested in investments who have ignored them for decades.

This is partly welcomed because people have finally recognized the opportunities that investing offers.

But with some old hands on the stock market, the queasy feeling of déjà vu increases.

For example with Björn Heissenberger, asset manager from Zurich.

Regardless of whether it is soft criteria such as high interest on the stock market or solid figures: "Every feature of a bubble is fulfilled," says Heissenberger.

Martin Hock

Editor in business.

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Mostly it is of no interest whether the market is a little more expensive or cheaper.

“But now almost all indicators are at record levels.

Stocks in the US are valued immensely.

More purchase options on individual shares are acquired there than shares themselves. Credit-financed securities purchases have increased significantly.

Above all, however, more money has flowed into American stocks this year than in the previous two decades. "

"Everyone wants to be there where the greatest growth takes place"

In Germany, too, some observers start pondering. The so-called Contracts for Difference (CFD), with which investors with low capital investment but increased risk can speculate on share prices, had a record year. According to the CFD Association, the trading volume had never been higher in the third quarter. The average volume per transaction increased and the number of transactions decreased. So investors took more risk.

The bad thing is that everyone bought the same thing, says Heissenberger: “Everyone wants to be there where the greatest growth occurs. In this way, immensely high prices are paid, which in most cases can only end in disappointment. ”The so popular ETF now contains a large number of expensive companies whose valuation is primarily driven by high demand for purchase options. “But stocks are still shares in real companies. If you buy a share for 50 times earnings, you have to expect low returns in the years to come. The whole striving to absolutely want to be there has something compulsive about it. "

The current situation is very similar to the bubble year 2000. Actually, it is even worse, since the profit expectations are even higher than then. "Currently, a long-term increase in profit a year averaging 19 percent is being priced in," says Heissenberger. "This has never happened before. In 2000, at the top of the Internet bubble, it was only 15 percent. ”He believes that growth expectations should actually be lower in view of global debt and demographic developments. Higher raw material prices and freight rates as well as a lack of workers were already eating away at margins.

But again, fundamentals didn't play a big role.

Again, high ratings would be explained with phrases such as that the future belongs to a company.

But that does not justify every price.

“In 2019 Apple was valued at eleven times its profit, today it is around 30 times the annual profit or almost eight times the annual turnover.

The company has stayed the same, only the price has changed.

But only the chances are seen. "

"Even quality in a bubble does not protect against a crash"

Dan Suzuki, deputy investment director of wealth manager Richard Bernstein, complains that some investors see the danger, but acted half-heartedly.

Fear of missing out, many stayed invested in bubble sectors, especially technology stocks.

They tried to make up for this by increasingly buying quality stocks within the overvalued industries.