What will happen to this economy as the infection of the new corona mutant virus "Omicron strain" spreads worldwide?
And where is the Japanese economy heading?
We asked the top management of a company at the New Year's celebration of three economic organizations such as Keidanren, which was held for the first time in two years.
The New Year celebration by Keidanren, the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, and the Keizai Doyukai was canceled last year for the first time due to the spread of infection, but this time the number of attendees was reduced to about one-ninth of the previous time, to more than 200 people. Was held in a significantly reduced size.
On behalf of the organizer, Mr. Sakurada, the secretary-general of the Keizai Doyukai, said, "Omicron strains are rampant all over the world, but there is no doubt that new mutant viruses will continue to emerge." With Corona " Will be a new daily life. "
On that basis, he said that he should see new daily life as an opportunity, solve social issues through corporate innovation, and lead to economic growth.
Then, Prime Minister Kishida said on the stage, "By firmly distributing the fruits of growth, a virtuous cycle of the economy will be created and it will lead to the next growth. Wage increases by companies are extremely important from the viewpoint of future economic growth." Said.
On top of that, "The public and private sectors must firmly grasp the timing when the rebound from the Corona disaster and the challenge to the new era overlap, and make a phase change. In order to give momentum to the phase change of the Japanese economy, take an aggressive stance. I would like to ask for your cooperation. "
After that, the top executives of the three economic organizations held a press conference, in which Chairman Tokura of Keidanren said that Prime Minister Kishida had requested an active approach to raising wages. Companies should give back to society. "
On the other hand, he pointed out, "Wages and allowances will really be consumed if there is anxiety in the future," and asked the government to build a sustainable social security system.
"The economy of this year" to ask the top 10 managers of a company
We asked the top management of the companies that participated in the New Year's celebration to predict what the economy will be like with numbers, and asked them along with the keywords.
▽ If the economy improves, plus 1 to 5
▽ If the economy deteriorates, minus 1 to 5
"Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group" President Ota [Business Forecast +4.5]
The highest forecast [+4.5] was given by Jun Ota, president of the major financial group "Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group".
Regarding the economy of this year, "By controlling the corona, the restrictions on individual behavior will be eased, and along with that, personal consumption will recover, and the Japanese economy will also recover," he said.
On top of that, regarding the expected US interest rate hike, "If the US interest rate rises, the yen will tend to depreciate, but I don't think it will be such a sharp and radical depreciation of the yen. I don't think it will have a significant impact on people's lives, "he said, recognizing that the impact on the Japanese economy is limited.
On the other hand, regarding efforts to realize a carbon-free society that spreads among companies, President Ota said, "Companies have various worries about disclosing information on climate change response and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. I think that by forming a large-scale unit to provide the solution and responding to it, it will lead to new business opportunities for banks as well. " He showed his intention to support.
"Oisix Ra Daichi" President Takashima [Business Forecast +4]
Kohei Takashima, president of Oisix Ra Daichi, a major food delivery company, said [+4].
Regarding the economy of this year, "Many people shared the sense of crisis that Japan is a digital underdeveloped country due to the new corona, but there is a sense of expectation that this will be a big spring. Various changes such as working styles It's an opportunity for companies. "
In addition, regarding the response to the lifestyle that changes due to the corona sickness, "The contents are changing even though the nesting is progressing due to the corona sickness. However, gradually, it has become difficult to make all three meals a day at home. " Shown.
"V-cube" President Mashita [Business forecast +4]
President Naoaki Mashita of V-cube, a startup company that develops private room booths for telework, is [+4].
Regarding the economy of this year, "I think the difference between a company that is getting better and a company that is getting worse will be bigger. He stated that the speed of recovery of corporate performance will differ depending on whether or not he can respond to the changes caused by the corona virus.
On top of that, regarding future work styles, he said, "The younger the generation, the more important it is to be able to choose a work style such as working from home. He expressed the idea that preparing the environment is important for securing excellent human resources.
"Mitsubishi Corporation" President Kakiuchi [Business forecast +3]
Takehiko Kakiuchi, president of the major trading company "Mitsubishi Corporation", is [+3].
Regarding the economy of this year, "I had realized the delay in digitization for a long time, but the Corona sword was a great opportunity to recover such a delay at once. It is a great opportunity to turn disaster into good fortune." Said.
Regarding the impact of the US raising interest rates on the world and Japanese economies, "I think there will be positive and negative movements on both sides temporarily, but if the interest rate hikes are smooth, the US economy will be very strong. I don't expect it to be in a weird state. I think this will have a decisive impact on economic trends. "
On the other hand, regarding the conflict between the United States and China, "It is natural to see that the problem between the United States and China is not a problem that easily converges, and that the conflict will continue. Businesses that rely on China ignore potential risks. It is not possible to do so, and it is necessary to rebuild the production bases and sales bases just in case. "
"Honda" President Mibe [Business forecast +3]
Toshihiro Mibe, president of Honda, an automobile manufacturer, is [+3].
Regarding the economy of this year, he said, "Last year it was cloudy in terms of weather, but it's been a long time since the sun was shining, and I definitely want to make it clearer in the second half of the year." I did.
He also said, "Semiconductor shortages will have an impact until the first half, but we expect that the impact will be less in the second half, so I want to take it to a clear world as soon as possible." , Showed the prospect that it will be resolved toward the second half of the year.
On the other hand, regarding efforts toward the realization of a carbon-free society, President Mibe said, "I want to make sure that we are a company. EV = carbon-neutral by promoting the development of charging infrastructure and power transmission networks that are indispensable for electric vehicles. I think we can achieve this at an early stage, so we would like to actively promote it in cooperation with the national government. "
"ANA Holdings" President Katanozaka [Business forecast +3]
Shinya Katanozaka, president of ANA Holdings, a major airline company, is [+3].
Regarding the economy of this year, "Customers have returned mainly on domestic flights. It has been cloudy from rain until now, but the sun is coming. I am worried that Omicron stocks will come out, but there is no doubt that Japanese companies also We expect that it will be a year in which business performance will improve and the transportation and aviation industries will recover. Since the power of cost reduction so far is the energy, we definitely want to achieve profitability in 2022. " Said.
On top of that, he said about the wage increase in this spring battle, "It is quite difficult to raise the base. Monthly wages are cut and bonuses are zero, but when the company goes into the black, I want to restore the salaries of employees." ..
On the other hand, regarding the decarbonization efforts of the aviation industry, "We also declared that we will achieve carbon neutrality in 2050. Since we rely on imports for bio-jet fuel called'SAF', we will quickly domestically produce and mass-produce it. I would like to switch to this fuel. ”He stated that he would accelerate the switch to alternative fuels that do not use oil.
"NEC" Chairman Endo [Business forecast +3]
NEC Chairman Nobuhiro Endo is [+3].
Regarding the economy of this year, "Omicron strains are a problem all over the world, but it is important to be able to properly deal with vaccines that can suppress Omicron strains and medicines for drinking," he said. He acknowledged that if the economy progresses, exchanges between various people will resume and the economy will improve.
On top of that, regarding the key to survival in "With Corona", "DX = It is necessary to have a stronger awareness of digital transformation. Also, when DX occurs, standardization will occur, so take positive leadership on that standardization. Is very important. "
Regarding the increase in wages for this spring battle, "Wage increases are a very important area, but social security is solid in Scandinavia and other countries. People, including social security, have a better life. I think it's important to get the feeling that it will change to, "he said, saying that it is necessary to find ways to enrich people's lives, including not only raising wages but also social security."
"ENEOS Holdings" Chairman Sugimori [Business Forecast +3]
Tsutomu Sugimori, Chairman of ENEOS Holdings, a major oil retailer [+3].
Regarding this year's economy, "Although there are downside risks such as the expansion of Omicron stocks and rising energy prices, the Japanese economy is on a gradual recovery trend with the resumption of socio-economic activities. Investment in the fields of decarbonization and digital transformation If the expansion progresses, it may proceed to a full-scale recovery. "
Regarding efforts toward the realization of a carbon-free society, he said, "Last year, I was devoted to carbon neutrality, but I think this trend will accelerate further. The government will reduce greenhouse gas emissions to virtually zero by 2050. To achieve our goals, we must change energy, change the structure of industry, and change the lives of the people. We must fundamentally change society and take on bold challenges. " He expressed his intention to focus on popularizing hydrogen and ammonia, which are expected to be used as next-generation energy, including renewable energy.
"JSR" Honorary Chairman Koshiba [Business Forecast +3]
Honorary Chairman Mitsunobu Koshiba of JSR, a major chemical manufacturer, is [+3].
Regarding this year's economy, he said that the economy will improve compared to last year as trade will become more active due to RCEP = Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, in which Japan and China, which came into effect this month, will participate.
On the other hand, regarding the keywords of the Japanese economy, he mentioned the phenomenon that the price of goods related to decarbonization rises, "green inflation" that combines green and inflation, and "There is concern about unintentional uncontrollable inflation. If this happens, it will be negative. If Japanese companies do not pass on prices successfully as decarbonization progresses, there is a risk of economic slowdown.
Regarding the impact of the conflict between the United States and China, Honorary Chairman Koshiba said, "I think that the US and China will be more conscious of the trends in their domestic economies, so the US-China conflict will not escalate further." I showed you how to look at.
On top of that, regarding the response of companies such as economic security, "It is not possible to completely divide a company's production bases in the United States. And the awareness of governance will make a big difference between companies. "
"Mori Trust" President Date [Business forecast +2]
Miwako Date, president of the real estate giant "Mori Trust", is [+2].
Regarding the economy of this year, "Although the possibility of the sixth wave due to the new mutant strain, Omicron strain, has emerged, due to the start of the third inoculation of the vaccine and the development of the oral medicine, compared with the period of spread of infection so far. Personal consumption will not decline. "
On top of that, regarding the wage increase led by the Kishida Cabinet, President Date said, "I appreciate that the government has adopted a new system with a strong will. On the other hand, the tax system is temporary and wages will rise. In order to ensure proper allocation continuously, it is necessary to review the special Japanese-style employment system. How to develop human resources and allocate wages in society as a whole, including institutional review Shouldn't we go? "
In addition, President Date, who manages office buildings and hotels, said about the lifestyle that changes due to the corona disaster, "With the emergence of a new lifestyle of working while enjoying leisure time such as worcation, tourist areas will also capture demand on weekdays. On the other hand, it has become an era in which the ideal way of offices is being questioned, such as restrictions on office attendance for corporate office demand, and an era in which the purpose of coming to the office and working is reconsidered. I've come, "he said, recognizing that it is necessary to respond to major changes in the business environment.
Maybe this is a “price increase”?
Mr. Nagano, a commentator in charge of economics who is familiar with "News Shibu 5 o'clock" and "Crispy economic Q & A", sees the Japanese economy as follows.
Deflation that has plagued the Japanese economy for a long time.
However, it has been pointed out that prices may rise.
One of the keywords to understand is "weak yen and strong dollar".
The world economy has been hit hard by the new corona, but demand for goods has increased as the economic activities of people and businesses have recovered, and prices have skyrocketed, especially in the United States.
For this reason, the Federal Reserve Board, the central bank of the United States, has begun to work towards normalizing monetary policy.
First of all, we will end the "quantitative easing" that supplies a large amount of dollars to the market in March.
In the future, we expect to stop the "zero interest rate" and raise interest rates in stages.
Then, in the foreign exchange market, it becomes easier to buy dollars with interest rates and sell yen.
In other words, it is the view of many market participants that the "weak yen and the strong dollar" may further progress.
The depreciation of the yen is positive for the Japanese economy because it enhances the profitability of exporting companies.
However, if the depreciation of the yen is added to the high price of raw materials such as crude oil, purchasing costs will rise further for companies.
The current situation is that many companies do not pass on the transaction price for fear of losing customers, but on the other hand, there are increasing voices saying that "it can no longer be absorbed by our own efforts alone".
For this reason, it has been pointed out that a wave of price increases may spread to a wide range of products and products.
Prices of foods that are familiar to us, such as soy sauce and some frozen foods, are scheduled to rise, and we are worried that GDP = the recovery of personal consumption, which accounts for more than half of the gross domestic product, will be hindered.
In order to dispel such concerns, it is important to expand the movement to raise wages.
The government is required to control the spread of infection, lead the Japanese economy to a strong growth trajectory, and create an environment where individuals can spend their money with peace of mind.