Forward-looking economic data:
The CPI in December 2021 may fall slightly year-on-year, and the annual GDP growth rate is expected to exceed 8%
Our reporter Bao Xing'an
Trainee reporter Yang Jie
According to the work schedule of the National Bureau of Statistics, CPI and PPI data for December 2021 will be released next week.
Experts interviewed by a reporter from the Securities Daily predict that due to the base and the effects of the domestic policy of maintaining supply and stabilizing prices, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in December 2021 may drop slightly to about 2%, and the year-on-year growth rate of PPI will drop slightly to 11%. , The annual GDP growth rate is expected to exceed 8%.
In addition, the GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2022 is expected to achieve more than 5.3%.
“CPI is expected to rise by 1.6% year-on-year in December last year, a significant drop from 2.3% in November.” Luo Zhiheng, deputy dean and chief macro researcher of the Yuekai Securities Research Institute, analyzed in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily that on the one hand, The tail-lifting factor is disturbing. On the other hand, the supply of pork and vegetables is sufficient, and prices have fallen. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, non-food prices may rebound, forming a hedge against it.
Luo Zhiheng said that with the policy correction and adjustment, the policy of ensuring supply and price stabilization took effect, and the prices of coal, non-ferrous metals and other commodities fell in December last year.
The manufacturing PMI ex-factory price index in December last year was 45.5%, a further drop from November's 48.9%.
Therefore, PPI is expected to rise 11% year-on-year in December, continuing the downward trend since November.
Regarding the economic situation for the whole year of last year, CITIC Securities Co-Chief Economist clearly stated to the "Securities Daily" reporter that the real GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2021 will continue to fall to about 4% under the influence of the high base in the same period in 2020. The two-year average growth rate is about 5.2%, which may be slightly better than market expectations.
Therefore, the actual GDP growth rate for the whole year of 2021 may slightly exceed 8%.
Luo Zhiheng also holds the same view. He believes that China's economic growth rate will be high and low in 2021, and downward pressure will increase significantly in the second half of the year. It is expected that the annual GDP will grow by 8.1% year-on-year.
Looking ahead to the economic situation in the first quarter of 2022, Luo Zhiheng said that there will be greater pressure for stable economic growth in the first quarter of 2022. First, the rebound of the epidemic in some regions of the country will cause disturbances to consumption and production; second, weak real estate sales investment; third, infrastructure investment The intensity and changes in the export situation are still unclear.
However, as the macroeconomic policies continue to exert force, the economy will bottom out and stabilize, and the annual trend will show a trend of low before and high afterwards.
"In the first quarter of 2022, the economy will still have a certain degree of demand contraction pressure, which is mainly reflected in domestic demand. Real estate investment demand and consumption and service demand under the disturbance of the epidemic are facing certain pressure. There is no need to worry about external demand. Exports are expected to remain strong. "Obviously, it is clear that with more foreshadowing in the early stage, the counter-cyclical adjustment of the policy will respond in a timely manner, and the GDP growth rate in the first quarter of this year is expected to achieve 5.3% or more.
Talking about how to make efforts to stabilize growth in the future, Luo Zhiheng suggested that the counter-cyclical adjustment of macroeconomic policies should be strengthened.
A prudent monetary policy must be flexible and appropriate, and guide financial institutions to increase support for the real economy, especially small and micro enterprises, technological innovation, and green development.
Proactive fiscal policies must improve efficiency, ensure the intensity of fiscal expenditures, speed up the progress of expenditures, implement new tax and fee reduction policies, strengthen support for small and medium-sized enterprises, individual industrial and commercial households, manufacturing, and risk mitigation, and moderately advance the foundation of development Facility investment.
"At the same time, it is recommended to actively promote consumption and expand effective investment." Luo Zhiheng predicts that the new round of consumption promotion policies and the implementation of superimposed policies are expected to release savings and boost consumption.
Stabilizing investment will become the focus of work at present and for a period of time in the future. Real estate investment has stabilized, infrastructure investment has increased, and manufacturing investment has continued to rebound.
Luo Zhiheng also suggested that a package of policies should be adopted to stimulate the vitality of market players.
The central government has rectified some policies and has continued to issue various policies to support the development of SMEs.
In the future, we will continue to increase financial support for relief efforts, further promote tax cuts and fee reductions, flexibly and accurately use a variety of financial policy tools, promote the alleviation of rising costs, strengthen power guarantees, support enterprises to stabilize their jobs and expand their jobs, and ensure payment for small and medium-sized enterprises. Etc., effectively boosting market confidence and vitality.
"Steady growth must firmly grasp the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand, focusing on both consumption and investment." Mingming said that from the point of view of importance, the most important thing to expand domestic demand is to expand consumption.
Some policies introduced last year have shown a certain "contraction effect" in the short term. This year, more industrial policies that promote consumption and policies with an "expansion effect" may be introduced.
Judging from the sequence of policies, expanding investment has a relatively direct and effective boost to domestic demand. In particular, budgetary investment and infrastructure are the most powerful means for the government to carry out macro-control. It is highly certain that the government will launch its efforts in the first quarter of this year.
In addition, taxation, credit and other preferential measures can be used to encourage increased investment in green industries, emerging industries, high-tech enterprises, and “specialized, special-new,” small and medium-sized enterprises.
(Securities Daily)