Because of the ambitious goals of the new federal government, 2022 should be a year of electric cars.
After all, according to the coalition agreement, 15 million “fully electric” cars should be registered in Germany by 2030.
Measured against the current figure of 48 million cars, almost a third of the vehicle fleet should be powered by batteries and electric motors in just nine years.
Hybrid drives are not counted in the coalition agreement.
The goal is all the more demanding. At the end of 2020, just 309,000 battery electric cars (BEV) were registered in Germany, 0.6 percent of the total. For the past year, the Center of Automotive Management under the leadership of Stefan Bratzel expects around 350,000 new registrations of all-electric cars. So by the 2030 target, more than 14.3 million electric cars are still missing. Spread over nine years, an average of around 1.6 million new electric cars would have to be registered each year. That would be around half of the new cars that hit Germany's roads every year. For the time being, however, Bratzel's institute expects only 400,000 new electric cars this year.
There are currently many slowing elements ahead of the steep growth curve we are aiming for.
There is a lack of public and private charging stations for the batteries of e-cars, as well as a wider range of electric cars.
In the short term, raw materials for batteries and cars are also scarce.
Under these conditions, car manufacturers also lack the planning security that would be necessary if investments and production were to focus solely on battery-electric drives.
The number of charging stations is increasing too slowly
Above all, the gaps in the charging station network, but also the still slow charging technology, are currently preventing the faster spread of electric cars. Anyone who commutes 20 or 40 kilometers to work by car every day or covers short urban distances, who can also charge the car battery at home or at work, may already find an electric car attractive today. The situation is completely different for those who use their car for long-distance journeys or for drivers who have to reel off a wide-ranging, yet tightly-timed program due to family responsibilities. For such drivers today it seems absurd to take a break of at least 30 or 60 minutes every 200 or 300 kilometers to recharge the car battery.
In addition, users of electric cars still expect to find a free charging station when needed. But soon it is to be feared that waiting time will have to be planned in before the long loading time. Because the number of charging stations is not growing as fast as the number of electric cars. While the number of purely electrically powered cars on Germany's roads more than doubled in 2021, the number of publicly accessible charging stations only grew by 26 percent to 50,901 between the beginning of 2021 and December 1.
In any case, the growth expectations for the spread of electric cars do not (yet) match the infrastructure for charging. Of course, the market would provide more charging stations if there were more of these vehicles on the road, or more electric cars would be bought if battery charging was easier thanks to a large supply. Leaving this development to the market took patience. The development of the demand for gasoline cars and the expansion of the filling station network once took decades. If the new government in Berlin wants to see facts more quickly, it must not only create incentives, but also ensure faster approval processes.
There are many investment projects and risks left to automakers.
You need to develop more powerful batteries that charge faster.
At the same time, they should use less rare raw materials and of course expand the model range - and still leave an option for other drive technologies open as far as possible.
Uncertainty is created by the fact that all-electric cars are still in their infancy in important markets.
While the leading electronics trade fair CES in Las Vegas is once again serving as a stage for future technology for electric cars, the share of registrations in the USA has only recently exceeded two percent.
In this uncertain world, Germany's car companies will still need the funds from their current record profits.
So maybe they shouldn't distribute too much of it to their shareholders.