Hu Zuquan, Associate Researcher of the Economic Forecast Department of the National Information Center——
Economic operation becomes more stable and balanced
The Central Economic Work Conference in 2021 clearly stated that the economic work in 2022 should take the lead and seek progress while maintaining stability.
In 2022, my country's economic operation is expected to become more stable and more balanced.
Specifically, first, the economic growth rate has become more stable during the quarter.
The base effect of the epidemic tends to weaken, and the level of economic growth is mainly determined by potential growth rates and new disturbance factors.
Second, the economic cycle is smoother.
The epidemic's suppression of economic and social activities is expected to weaken, and problems such as supply shortages and poor logistics will be resolved more quickly.
Third, the growth of domestic and external demand is more balanced.
Weak links in domestic demand such as contact consumption and manufacturing investment have steadily recovered, infrastructure investment has moderately advanced, and the vitality of new kinetic energy continues to be released.
As the growth of foreign trade exports becomes more difficult, the contribution of external demand to economic growth will weaken.
Fourth, the development of market entities has become more coordinated.
The development environment for small and medium-sized enterprises has continued to improve, the pressure of rising energy and raw material prices has eased, and market demand has gradually picked up.
Fifth, the distribution of residents' income is more reasonable.
The promotion of the common prosperity policy will accelerate the implementation of the policy, residents' income growth and economic growth will be basically synchronized, the middle-income group will accelerate the expansion of capacity, and the income of low-income groups and those out of poverty will achieve faster growth.
Considering the internal and external environment, development potential, and risk challenges, it is initially estimated that my country's economy will grow by about 5.6% in 2022.
In terms of industries, the primary industry will maintain steady growth.
Agricultural and rural production conditions continued to improve, and grain output increased steadily.
The growth rate of the secondary industry has fallen.
The high-tech manufacturing industry continues to exert its strength, and its ability to drive industry is further enhanced.
The tertiary industry has accelerated its recovery to a normalized level, and its role in stimulating economic growth has been consolidated.
(Compiled by our reporter Xiong Li)
Guan Lixin, Deputy Director of the Circulation and Consumption Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce——
The role of green consumption extends upward
In 2021, the consumer market will continue to recover, and consumption contribution, scale and structure will rise steadily, demonstrating the strong resilience and vitality of my country's consumer market.
Looking forward to 2022, although the uncertainty of the epidemic will put pressure on the recovery of the consumer market, my country's economic resilience is strong, and the fundamentals of long-term improvement in consumption will not change.
Under the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, the state will continue to do a good job in the “six stability” and “six guarantees”, introduce policies conducive to economic stability, maintain economic operations within a reasonable range, and lay a solid foundation for income growth and consumption recovery.
The implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand will further improve the urban and rural circulation infrastructure, enrich the effective supply of consumption, optimize the consumer market environment, and accelerate the pace of consumption upgrading, thereby enhancing consumer confidence, stimulating consumption vitality, releasing consumption potential, and enhancing endogenous driving force for development.
The implementation of a comprehensive conservation strategy will enhance the nation's awareness of conservation, promote the formation of a simple and moderate, green and low-carbon consumption mode, and the role of green consumption will gradually extend upstream, driving the circulation and production fields to promote comprehensive resource conservation, intensive and recycling utilization, and realize the economy Green and sustainable development of the whole chain of circulation.
The in-depth development of the digital economy will provide new momentum for the domestic cycle.
The application of technologies such as cloud computing, big data, Internet of Things, and artificial intelligence will accelerate the digital transformation of traditional industries and create more effective supply and consumption scenarios for the consumer market.
In addition, demographic changes have brought new opportunities to the consumer market.
With the implementation of the three-child policy, the increase of the aging population, and the "Generation Z" becoming the main force of consumption, the consumer market will face more diversified, personalized and service-oriented needs. The people's yearning for a better life and huge domestic market potential are Consumption recovery provides a strong impetus.
(Compiled by our reporter Feng Qiyu)
Wei Hao, Director of the Department of International Economics and Trade, Beijing Normal University——
Accelerate the development of new formats and new models of foreign trade
In 2021, my country's foreign trade will continue to maintain rapid growth, the international market share will also achieve a steady increase, and will continue to maintain its status as the world's largest trading country in goods.
Looking forward to 2022, the development of my country's foreign trade will still have both opportunities and challenges.
In 2021, the global new crown pneumonia epidemic will fluctuate, the shortage of international logistics capacity, high freight rates, rising import commodity prices, and chip supply shortages will not be fundamentally alleviated in the short term. Under the superimposed effect of multiple factors, the market environment for my country's foreign trade development has become abnormal. Complicated, foreign trade operations are facing greater pressure.
However, it should also be noted that in 2022, there are still many new opportunities for the development of my country's foreign trade.
First of all, my country will continue to deepen the expansion of high-level opening to the outside world, further enhance the role of open platforms such as the free trade pilot zone and the Hainan Free Trade Port, actively promote institutional opening, and strive to create a market-oriented, legalized, and internationalized business environment. This will attract more foreign investors to invest in China and promote the development of import and export trade through investment.
Second, my country will actively optimize import and export tax policies, earnestly implement tax reduction policies, vigorously promote the standardization and reduction of import and export related corporate fees, and accelerate the progress of export tax rebates. This will further reduce trade costs and stimulate corporate vitality.
In addition, my country will continue to accelerate the development of new trade formats, add cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones, optimize the import list of cross-border e-commerce retail goods, expand import categories, improve the overseas warehouse network, and increase the use of overseas warehouses in accordance with market-oriented methods. Support for the healthy development of foreign trade comprehensive service enterprises, and steadily promote the development of offshore trade. These new business formats and new models will be new growth points and new highlights of my country’s foreign trade.
(Compiled by our reporter Feng Qiyu)
Ren Rongrong, Director of Comprehensive Research Office, Investment Research Institute, China Academy of Macroeconomics——
Effective investment space continues to be released
Actively and steadily expanding effective investment is an important support for keeping the economy operating within a reasonable range and will provide a good macro environment for the smooth circulation of the national economy.
In 2021, the Central Economic Work Conference put forward the idea of “taking the lead in stability and seeking progress while maintaining stability”. The basic conditions and external environment for investment in my country are getting better, and effective investment space will be expanded and continued to be released.
By rationally arranging moderately advanced infrastructure investment, it will help the overall investment to maintain a reasonable growth range.
Compared with developed countries, my country's per capita capital stock is still relatively insufficient, and there are still many shortcomings in the fields of infrastructure and public services.
Based on the promotion of the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" project, we will appropriately advance infrastructure investment, accelerate the completion of shortcomings in infrastructure, municipal engineering, agriculture and rural areas, and public security, promote coordinated regional development, facilitate the flow of elements, and improve public services. There are both short-term "stabilizing growth" effects and mid- to long-term "increasing kinetic energy" effects.
Continuously deepening the reform of the investment approval system will help fully stimulate the vitality and motivation of social investment.
In recent years, the reform of decentralization, regulation and service in the investment field has achieved positive results.
Relevant reform measures are conducive to the in-depth advancement of the reform of decentralization, regulation, and service in the investment field, and strongly supports the key role of investment in stabilizing economic growth.
Release effective investment space and give full play to the role of investment in building a new development pattern.
For a long period of time in the future, innovation-driven investment, green transformation investment and investment to meet new consumer demand will all have a large investment space.
my country's large-scale domestic demand market and industrial chain advantages will help release the growth potential of innovative investment.
With the implementation of the carbon peak action plan, the green development of the industrial system has nurtured huge investment opportunities.
Using digital dividends to increase investment in new business formats and new models will help promote the positive interaction between effective investment and consumption upgrades.
(Compiled by our reporter Gu Yang)
Guo Liyan, Director of Comprehensive Situation Office, China Academy of Macroeconomics——
CPI has a solid foundation for smooth operation
Looking forward to 2022, there is no basis for a full-scale upward inflation in my country, and the favorable factors for stabilizing the operation of domestic prices have increased significantly.
First, my country adheres to a prudent monetary policy, resolutely refrains from "overflowing" strong stimulus, maintains the continuity, stability and sustainability of macroeconomic policies, and provides a good macroeconomic environment for stabilizing the operation of domestic prices.
Second, the supply-demand relationship between the upstream and downstream of my country's main industrial chains is basically stable. Some blockages and stuck points in some production, supply and marketing chains are expected to be speeded up. The supply and demand cycles, industrial cycles, and market cycles of the national economy will be further smoothed, which is conducive to consolidating the foundation for domestic price stability. .
Third, the current supply of commodities for the people's livelihood is sufficient, and the delivery is unimpeded. They are confident in ensuring the supply and price stability of grain, oil, meat, eggs, milk, fruits and vegetables.
Fourth, although the prices of some raw materials are still running at a high level, due to the long industrial chain and fierce market competition, the influence of downward transmission is gradually attenuated, and the changes in the prices of consumer goods for terminal residents are relatively limited.
On the whole, the fundamentals of my country's economic resilience and long-term improvement will not change.
With the steady implementation of various measures to ensure the supply and price stabilization of primary products, it is expected that the prices of most industrial products will fall.
The supply of goods and services in the consumer sector in my country is generally abundant, and there is a solid foundation for maintaining the stable operation of the CPI in 2022.
(Compiled by our reporter Xiong Li)
Feng Wenmeng, researcher of the Development Research Center of the State Council——
Take precautions to consolidate the basic employment market
The 2022 class of college graduates is expected to reach 10.76 million, and both the scale and increment will hit a record high.
In addition, the impact of the epidemic on employment continues, and there are still many uncertainties in the employment demand in the job market.
Comprehensive research and judgment show that the employment situation in 2022 is complex.
At the same time, we must also see that my country's economy is resilient, the fundamentals of long-term improvement have not changed, and the foundation for stabilizing employment remains solid.
To this end, it is necessary to plan ahead to make specific arrangements for stabilizing employment, and implement a package of measures to stabilize employment, so as to maintain a stable employment scale and situation for a period of time in the future.
The first is to continue to increase policy support for small, medium and micro enterprises, and through a series of policies such as tax cuts, fee reductions, and reduction of financing costs, to help small, medium and micro enterprises continue to gain growth momentum and consolidate the overall employment base to the greatest extent; second, sound and flexible Employment, labor and employment policies, while vigorously promoting the development of the platform economy, must appropriately regulate working hours, labor intensity, labor protection and other social security issues; third, in the face of the huge scale of college graduates, it is necessary to strengthen departmental linkage and coordination. Closely monitor the employment situation, provide employment information through multiple channels, and provide employment services in all directions, so as to maximize the smooth employment of college graduates.
From the perspective of economic structure, the proportion of employees in the tertiary industry is increasing.
It is necessary to increase the cultivation of emerging service industries, dig deep into the diversified consumer needs of the masses for elderly care, health, etc., and continue to expand the new space for employment.
(Compiled by our reporter Han Bingzhi)
Cai Zhibing, Associate Professor of the Department of Economics, Central Party School (National School of Administration)
Resident income growth is guaranteed
Income growth is one of the results of economic growth, and the degree of economic development determines income growth to some extent.
In 2022, there will be a solid policy guarantee for the sustainable growth of residents' income.
Further recovery of the macro economy is an important prerequisite for residents' income growth.
In 2022, many places have clearly stated that it is necessary to plan a number of major investment projects that lay the foundation, benefit the long-term, and support high-quality development around key areas such as major transportation, energy and water conservancy, and new infrastructure. The macroeconomic situation will further recover. An important prerequisite for supporting the continuous growth of residents' income.
The collective effort of macro-control policies is an important driving force for residents' income growth.
The 2021 Central Economic Work Conference proposed a policy control system including macro policies, micro policies, structural policies, science and technology policies, regional policies, and social policies.
The concerted efforts of these policies will bring huge positive spillover effects to economic growth and are the driving force for the continuous increase of residents' income.
(Compiled by our reporter Li Yanzhen)
Chen Yang, Director of Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center——
Promote a virtuous circle in the real estate industry
The development situation of the real estate industry in 2022 and in the future can be summarized in three key words: focus, transformation, and circulation.
Focus on the prominent problems of housing in big cities, not only because the contradiction between housing supply and demand in big cities is more pronounced, but also because big cities and their metropolitan areas will be the core engines of economic development.
This means that there will be more opportunities for real estate development in big cities and metropolitan areas.
There are many opinions about the transformation of the real estate industry, and attention should be paid to the positive effects of affordable rental housing.
This type of housing is not an affordable housing packaged by the government, but is more open to the market, and has become an important supplement to the commercial housing market.
The 2021 Central Economic Work Conference proposed to promote a virtuous circle in the real estate industry, which gives the market more confidence.
The central government’s requirements for “stabilizing land prices, housing prices, and stabilizing expectations” correspond to different entities. “Stabilizing land prices” requires local governments to get rid of financial dependence on land, “stabilizing housing prices” requires companies to price pragmatically and steadily marketing, and “stabilizing expectations” encourages residents Rational consumption.
The "virtuous circle" is a systematic project. It is believed that more policies involving finance, land, public services and other fields will be introduced in the future to jointly promote the rational and healthy development of the real estate industry.
(Compiled by our reporter Kang Shu)