China-Singapore Jingwei, January 5 (Fu Jianqing) Around New Year's Day, many brokerage companies have released relevant forecasts or outlooks for the whole year of 2022.
On the whole, in the A-share market, many believe that the style of large and small caps will usher in a transformation in 2022.
The forecast is very different, and some brokers see 3000-3200 points on the Shanghai Stock Exchange
Comprehensive research reports show that A shares still have a greater chance of becoming the mainstream voice of securities firms in 2022.
CICC believes that although profit growth has been dragged down by upstream industries, the overall situation may not be outstanding.
However, due to factors such as low overall valuation, support for liquidity, and the gradual fading of the impact of the epidemic, the opportunities for A shares in 2022 may outweigh the risks.
China Securities Securities believes that easing liquidity will hedge the economic downturn, and it is expected that A shares will decline first and then rise.
China Merchants Securities also stated that it expects that A shares will rise stably before and after, and the third quarter will usher in a new starting point for the upward cycle.
Industrial Securities believes that the market is expected to usher in an index-level rise, and even a wave of market similar to the "mini version 2014".
However, there are also brokers who look down on the market.
Guoyuan Securities believes that the stock market may enter the stage of squeezing bubbles in 2022.
The current high valuation industries are caused temporarily or cyclically. If the property market sales recover and the direction of residents' wealth allocation is adjusted again, the valuation of the stock market will usher in an opportunity for adjustment.
In 2022, the valuation of all-A may fall to about 14.8 times (the SSE valuation drops to 11 times), which corresponds to a nominal growth rate of 0-4.8% (corresponding to a decline in SSE profit of 0.9%-10.1%). It may impact the 3000-3200 point range.
Many brokerages mentioned blue chips in the market, and there are many opportunities for consumption and new energy
Although the various securities firms failed to reach a consensus on market trends, they have basically similar paths in stock selection.
CITIC Securities believes that in terms of style, blue chips are the main line of investment throughout the year; CITIC Jiantou Securities pointed out that large-cap stocks have already released some of the risks of economic recession and interest rate decline in the 2021 downturn. These two negative effects in the future The margin is weakened, and the suppression of small-cap stocks by price decline will be fully reflected in 2022; Zhongtai Securities predicts that the bottom-performing blue-chip stocks in 2021 will once again dominate, and the growth style of small- and medium-caps will give way to the value of the large-cap. This switching process It will be completed during the "Spring Disturbance" period.
CICC believes that in the “steady growth” stage of China, the performance of the partial growth sector with large previous gains, high valuations and expectations, and not low positions may be phased in. When growth expectations are stabilized, “steady growth” transactions After cooling down, the market style may still shift to areas that tend to grow.
From the perspective of specific industry opportunities, many are optimistic about consumption and new energy related fields in their forecasts.
CITIC Securities proposes to focus on midstream manufacturing and consumption in the first half of the year, and focus on opportunities in the consumer and technology sectors in the second half of the year.
CICC predicts that the high boom in the electric vehicle industry chain and the new energy industry will spread to related fields; opportunities in the pan-consumer sector may be one of the bright spots in 2022.
Guohai Securities believes that the switch from cycle to consumption is relatively clear, and the switch from growth to finance depends on the resonance of economic trends and interest rates. Consumption is expected to usher in both volume and price increases in 2022, with strong certainty.
Pay attention to food and beverages, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries that are expected to increase prices, as well as automobiles that benefit from the decline in the prices of upstream raw materials and small home appliances that are not affected by real estate.
In addition, the current valuation and prosperity of the financial sector are at the bottom, and it is expected to be repaired in the second half of 2022.
China Merchants Securities believes that looking for sub-sectors, tracks, and individual stocks with marginal improvement logic from the "depressions" with low expectations, low valuations, and low allocations will become an important stock selection strategy and allocation strategy in 2022.
The new energy revolution is expected to develop in depth. Technologies such as green hydrogen, fuel cells, solid-state batteries, and new energy storage systems will become hotspots for transformational investment; Meta Universe, smart cars, and AI + industrial Internet will become the core choice track; the "Mao Index" continues to differentiate, Still a structural opportunity.
China Securities Co., Ltd. has made predictions for many industries: new energy infrastructure is expected to be the focus of policy development; the imbalance between supply and demand of container transportation may continue until the end of 2022; Meta Universe opens a new era; the prosperity of the military industry spreads across the entire industry The chain ushered in great opportunities; new energy operating assets ushered in value revaluation; catering and tourism recovered, and valuation system adjustments in the post-epidemic era.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
(The opinions in the article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)
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