In 2021, more than 80 equity funds have a return rate of over 50%, and the fund industry ushered in a "big year of performance"

  Guimin "Raising Chickens" Guide: Which funds can cross the bulls and bears?

  With the end of the market in 2021, the annual investment report card of equity funds has also been released.

The equity fund income list shows that in 2021, the average return rate of equity funds will reach 8.82%, which is higher than the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, and slightly lower than the ChiNext Index.

What is the most important factor affecting the annual return of the fund?

Which funds can cross the bulls and bears to achieve medium and long-term returns?

  Doubling and slashing

  Depends on the direction of the tuyere

  Statistics show that in 2021, more than 80 equity funds have a return rate of more than 50%. It can be said that 2021 is the "big year of performance" for the fund industry.

Similar to 2020, the funds with leading performance in 2021 are mostly deployed on high-prosperity tracks, including new energy, national defense and military industries.

  Especially the new energy theme funds that stand on the upper hand.

Most of the new energy theme funds achieved relatively good profits. The two new energy theme funds of Qianhai Kaiyuan Public Utilities and Qianhai Kaiyuan New Economy A both recorded double returns.

Qianhai Kaiyuan Public Utilities and Qianhai Kaiyuan New Economy managed by Cui Chenlong won the first and second place in equity funds in 2021, and Baoying Advantage Industries jointly managed by Xiao Xiao and Chen Jinwei won the third place in equity funds.

  On the contrary, once you stand in the wrong direction and choose a leeway, the fund's income will hardly escape a sharp retracement.

For example, affected by negative news such as anti-monopoly, QDII funds have seen a retracement of large declines. Many funds have fallen by more than 40%. This theme fund has the worst performance in the entire 2021.

Data treasure statistics show that equity funds in QDII funds will fall by an average of 1.03% in 2021.

The poor performance of Hong Kong stocks and Chinese concept stocks was the main reason for the larger decline of some QDII funds.

Bank of Communications China Securities Overseas China Internet plunged 46.8% in 2021, ranking first on the list of declines; E Fund China Securities Overseas Internet ETF also fell more than 40%; China Universal Hong Kong Advantage Selection, E Fund Asia Selection, Yinhua ICBC Southern The yields of many QDII funds, including the East British Standard & Poor's China New Economy Industry ETF, fell by more than 30% last year.

  Bull market and bear market

  Public fund performance does not rely on "gambling"

  One of the characteristics of public funds in 2021 is that most star funds in 2020 have lost their aura and their performance has declined significantly.

From the perspective of industry insiders, it is relatively easy for a certain annual performance to rank high, but it is quite difficult to maintain a stable performance and ultimately bring investors a high return on investment in a long-term perspective.

In fact, many well-known celebrity fund managers, most of them cannot withstand the "baptism" of the market, and eventually become a "shooting star" in the market.

  So, does the performance of public funds depend on "gambling"?

Did you eat by luck?

Judging from the performance of partial equity funds in the past, the funds that rank the top and bottom each year are basically betting on the right spot in the industry.

For example, in the previous bull market on the ChiNext, as long as the TMT sector was overweighted for two to three years, there was no need to dig deep into individual stocks, and the fund's performance ranking would definitely be quite high.

  However, in the face of the high volatility of the A-share market, a group of funds have always maintained a high position and achieved a crossing of bulls and bears. This is precisely due to the selection of high-quality company stocks and patient holdings.

When most investors frequently exchange shares, a group of fund managers hold positions in an "year" cycle.

In fact, from a longer-term perspective, publicly offered active equity funds still provide investors with long-term good investment returns with obvious excess returns.

With a three-year cycle, SDIC UBS, ABC-Agriculture, and HSBC Jinxin Fund have all produced funds with 5 times the return.

Most of these funds are flexible allocation funds or stock funds.

  In the A-share market in the past five years, with the frequent switching of market styles, the bulls and bears in the sector have been constantly rotating.

Active equity funds with the highest holding positions have average yields of up to 139% in the past five years, and partial-equity hybrid funds are 129%. The average returns of active equity funds and hybrid funds over the same period have also exceeded 100%. The excess returns are very high. considerable.

Among them, Cinda Australia's new energy industry managed by Feng Mingyuan has a yield rate of 427%, which is the champion fund in the past five years.

Zhao Hao's ABC-CA Industrial has also returned more than 400% in the same period.

  If you look at the longer 10-year cycle, the data shows that the Bank of Communications Advanced Manufacturing managed by Liu Peng made a huge profit of 1056.44%, which is the only 10-fold fund in the past 10 years.

Many funds, such as Yinhe Innovation Growth managed by Zheng Weishan and Xingquan Herun managed by Xie Zhiyu, have also gained more than 8 times the increase in 10 years.

  Investment and income

  Long-term holders have higher returns

  Funds make money, but non-profit making has become a pain point in the fund industry.

How do investors get out of the vicious circle of "funds make money, but citizens don't make money"?

In order to solve this "stubborn disease", various aspects of the market are making various efforts, such as the issuance of "floating management fee funds", "no money no management fees" funds, fund investment advisory business pilot projects, and so on.

However, fund losses are still the norm.

  A recent survey report on fund investors by Tiantian showed that as of December 28, 2021, 53% of the Christians have a negative rate of return, 35% of the Christians have a return of less than 10%, and 9% of the Christians have a return rate of less than 10%. The rate of return is between 10% and 30%, and only 2% of the citizens have a rate of return of more than 30%.

  The China Fund News "2020 White Paper on Individual Investor Research of Equity Funds" surveyed nearly 600 million Christian respondents. Data shows that long-term holders have higher returns, and the shorter the holding period, the higher the possibility of loss.

Among the respondents whose average holding time of a single fund is less than half a year, more than half of the number of people who lose money is significantly higher than the overall loss probability of 38.6%.

If held for more than half a year, more than half will be profitable, and the longer the holding time, the more profitable people will be.

  Three large equity fund companies, Invesco Great Wall Fund, Wells Fargo Fund, and Bank of Communications Schroder Fund, jointly released the "Public Equity Fund Investor Earnings Insight Report" on October 20, 2021.

After collecting statistics on 129 active equity fund products, 46.82 million customers and 565 million transactions, the report systematically sorts out and analyzes the overall profitability, customer investment behavior, and the risk-return characteristics of the fund.

  The report data shows that the longer the holding time, the higher the average return rate of investors, and the three-month holding time can be said to be a "barrier."

Among them, when the holding time is less than 3 months, the average return rate is negative, and the proportion of profitable customers is only 39.10%; when more than 3 months, the proportion of profitable customers greatly increases to 63.72%, and the average return rate also turns from negative to positive.

When the holding time continues to increase from 3 months, with the accumulation of time, the average return rate of customers becomes more and more impressive, and the proportion of customers' profitability also shows a steady upward trend.

  A fund manager said that due to the improper timing of ordinary investors, it is easy to buy at a relatively high point in the market and sell at a relatively low point, and it is difficult to obtain long-term returns from the long-term operation of the fund.

  On December 22, 2021, Ant Fund and 43 fund companies released the "2021 Fund Manager Thousands of Survey Report".

Regarding the loss, 59% of the loss-making Christians believe that the main reason is the impact of the overall market trend.

In addition, they also believe that the unselected pairs of fund managers' investment targets, untimely adjustment of positions, failure to stop profits in time, short holding time, unbalanced asset allocation, chasing ups and downs, and frequent trading are also important factors that cause losses.

  The report is based on a total of thousands of surveys conducted on more than 100 fund managers in the past year. The results show that 75% of stock fund managers believe that the A-share market will achieve positive returns in 2022, and 60% of fund managers expect that the return range will be Between 0 and 10%.

Among them, the performance of the technology and manufacturing industries is the most anticipated.

In this regard, the fund manager recommends that investors should appropriately "lower income expectations", "establish a mid-to-long-term holding mentality," "make profit after reaching the investment target," "balanced allocation and fixed investment" and so on.

  Text/Reporter Zhu Kaiyun

  Coordinator/Yu Meiying