China-Singapore Jingwei, December 31 (Wang Yongle) Today (31st) at 24:00, domestic refined oil prices will be "the last adjustment" this year.
Comprehensive agencies predict that after the "three consecutive declines", domestic refined oil prices will rise in this round of price adjustment cycles.
Sino-Singapore Jingwei noted that this may be the 15th increase in refined oil prices during the year, more than two months after the last increase, during which oil prices "one stranded and three consecutive declines".
New latitude and longitude in the data map
During this round of pricing cycle, the international oil prices generally fell first and then rose.
In the early morning of December 30th, Beijing time, international oil prices hit a new high in nearly a month. The New York Mercantile Exchange's light crude oil (WTI) futures prices for delivery in February 2022 rose by 0.58 US dollars to close at 76.56 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.76%. ; The price of London Brent crude oil futures for delivery in February 2022 rose 0.29 US dollars to close at 79.23 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.37%.
In terms of inventory, on December 29, local time, data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that as of the week of December 24, US commercial crude oil inventories were 420 million barrels, a month-on-month decrease of 3.6 million barrels.
According to analysis by Wang Luqing, a refined oil analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, as the awareness of Omi Keron variants continues to increase, air travel and restrictions are gradually lifted, international oil prices continue to recover from low levels.
Pan Wenjing, an analyst at Zhongyu Information, pointed out that the supply and demand side has also provided impetus to the upward movement of oil prices, including OPEC+'s decision to maintain the established production increase plan without adjustments, and the interruption of crude oil production in Ecuador, Libya and Nigeria, which has resulted in the overall tightening of crude oil supply.
According to calculations by Zhuo Chuang Information, as of the close of December 29, the reference crude oil change rate for the ninth working day in China is 2.75%, and it is expected that gasoline and diesel will increase by 115 yuan/ton.
The data calculated by Jinlianchuang shows that as of the ninth working day on December 30, the average price of reference crude oil was US$75.48/barrel, and the rate of change was 2.57%. The corresponding retail price of domestic gasoline and diesel should be increased by RMB 120/ton.
Wang Luqing said that the increase in the retail price limit of refined oil products is a foregone conclusion. It is estimated that 92# gasoline and 0# diesel will increase by about 0.1 yuan per liter. It is expected that a full tank of 50L 92# gasoline will cost about 5 yuan more.
For consumers, the cost of oil will increase slightly.
According to statistics from Sino-Singapore Jingwei, since the beginning of this year, domestic refined oil prices have undergone 24 rounds of adjustments, with a total of “14 ups, six downs, and four strands”. Gasoline prices have been increased by 1,345 yuan/ton, and diesel prices have been increased by 1,295 yuan/ton.
If this adjustment is implemented, the price adjustment of refined oil products throughout the year will assume a pattern of "fifteen ups, six downs, and four strands".
In accordance with the "ten working days" principle, the next round of price adjustment window will be opened at 24:00 on January 17, 2022.
Liu Bingjuan, a refined oil analyst at Longzhong Information, believes that the current international oil prices are gradually getting rid of the influence of the Omi Keron variant, and favorable factors once again have the upper hand. It is expected that the probability of the next round of refined oil price adjustments will be higher.
Pan Wenjing analyzed that crude oil price trends are strongly related to the supply and demand side. In the context of the current supply tightening, crude oil will fluctuate upward in the short term, but the market will remain vigilant because the supply and demand sides of crude oil are uncertain.
In addition, for the medium and short-term international oil price trends, the Zhuo Chuang Information research team believes that it is mainly affected by three types of scenario factors such as economic scenarios, financial (currency) scenarios, and supply and demand scenarios.
The research team recently predicted that in the first three months of 2022, international oil prices (monthly average prices) will fall month by month, at US$69, US$68 and US$67 per barrel respectively.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
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