Monetary policy to support the real economy will have to work
harder Dong Ximiao
Monetary policy is an important part of my country's macroeconomic policy. In 2022, my country's monetary policy has attracted much attention from the market.
Judging from the central bank’s monetary policy committee’s fourth quarter regular meeting in 2021 and the central bank’s 2022 working meeting, my country’s monetary policy in 2022 will be more forward-looking, precise, and autonomous, and will give full play to the dual functions of aggregate and structure, and be more proactive and effective. Great support for the real economy.
It is foreseeable that the monetary policy in 2022 will provide stronger support to the real economy and market players.
The Central Economic Work Conference requires that in 2022, economic work must take the lead and seek progress while maintaining stability.
Therefore, a prudent monetary policy must be flexible and appropriate to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity.
Based on various factors, the monetary policy in 2022 will be more forward-looking, precise, and autonomous while maintaining continuity, stability, and sustainability.
Forward-looking, that is, to study and judge the external situation within a period of time in the future and make policy adjustments in advance to better respond to changes, hedge risks, and maintain stable economic operations.
If the downward pressure on the economy tends to increase, then the timing of policy adjustments should be advanced and the adjustment intensity should be greater than expected.
Accuracy means that while the monetary policy is more flexible and appropriate, it does not engage in flood irrigation, and better uses structural monetary policy tools to accurately drip irrigation in key areas and weak links of economic development.
Independence means that in the face of a highly uncertain internal and external environment, the monetary policy must adhere to the principle of self-centeredness, maintain a fixed force, and actively adjust according to the needs of my country's economic and social development, make good policy reserves, and strictly prevent imported financial risks.
In addition to the above-mentioned characteristics of monetary policy in 2022, there are two other important aspects worthy of attention.
From the perspective of policy thinking, the organic combination of inter-cyclical and counter-cyclical adjustment may be an important feature of monetary policy in the future.
Counter-cyclical adjustment is mainly reflected in the "reverse", that is, adopting policy measures to smooth out the fluctuations caused by the economic downturn cycle and alleviate the downward pressure on the economy.
Since the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, monetary policy has increased its counter-cyclical adjustment efforts to promote the stable recovery of the economy and society.
However, the economic recovery situation is not stable yet, and cross-cyclical adjustment policy measures are still needed.
Inter-cycle adjustment is mainly reflected in "span", that is, span a certain period in a time span, such as inter-annual arrangements for certain policies.
The organic combination of cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical control policies must not only be based on current difficulties and problems, but also focus on pressures and challenges in 2022 and beyond.
From the perspective of policy operations, the combination of aggregate tools and structural tools may be an important feature of monetary policy in the future.
On the one hand, we should make good use of aggregate tools at the right time to maintain a moderate increase in the money supply and enhance the stability of the growth of aggregate credit.
At present, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of my country's financial institutions is 8.4%, and there is still room for reduction.
In the next step, we can also consider continuing to reduce the deposit reserve ratio, provide financial institutions with long-term low-cost funds, and drive down the quoted interest rate of the loan market.
On the other hand, highlight the role of structural tools, do a good job of addition, and increase targeted "blood transfusion" in certain fields, industries, and enterprises.
In the next step, we will apply targeted RRR cuts, refinancing, and inclusive small and micro loan support tools, highlighting support for “specialized, new,” small and medium-sized enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households; use carbon emission reduction support tools to support clean and efficient coal Use special re-lending and other tools to support financial institutions to accelerate the development of green finance and promote the realization of the "dual carbon" goal.
In short, in the next stage of monetary policy, both aggregate tools and structural tools should be used appropriately; it is necessary to do a good job in the "addition" of structural incremental tools, and to play the role of structural price tools. Steady character and progress while maintaining stability will promote economic operation within a reasonable range.
(The author is the chief researcher of Zhaolian Finance)
Dong Ximiao