China News Finance, December 30th (Fu Yumei, Yan Shuxin) The Central Economic Work Conference has set "stableness and advancement" as the main keynote of China's economic work in 2022, and pointed out that the domestic economy is facing shrinking demand and supply. Impact and expected weakening are triple pressures.

　　So, how should these triple pressures be understood?

How to deal with it?

　　"I think this triple pressure is a kind of truth-seeking and pragmatic mind, mind, and courage. It actually shows China's courage to deal with it." On the 30th, Cheng Shi, chief economist of ICBC International, was present at the 2021 China Singapore Finance and Economics Conference. Said in the cloud summit.

　　Zong Liang, the chief researcher of the Bank of China Research Institute, also mentioned that the three pressures summarized by the Central Economic Work Conference are accurate judgments of the current economic situation.

"Just like seeing a doctor, first find out the condition and cause of the disease."

　　Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, believes that these three pressures are closely linked.

"Due to the decline in demand and supply shocks, the expectations of some production and market entities have weakened. If the expectations of market entities weaken, they will have no confidence in the future, and demand will decrease, which will also affect the production of supply. Therefore, we must solve the current threefold The pressure should also be resolved one by one."

　　As for how to deal with it?

Zong Liang believes that first, we must stabilize the expansion of demand, expand the consumer market on the basis of epidemic prevention, and at the same time do a good job in employment, income, security, etc.; second, we must increase supply, but it must be based on technological innovation, even in traditional industries. It is also necessary to achieve transformation and upgrading to achieve healthy development of the supply-side dynamic; third, it is necessary to adhere to economic construction as the center, let the market play a decisive role, and the government to play a better role, use more economic and market methods, and less use of laws. Means, the means of the government, truly create a benign environment that allows market players to be more assured.

　　In Wen Bin's view, stabilizing expectations and building confidence are the prerequisites and foundations for the next stage of work.

From the perspective of supply, it is necessary to maintain supply and stabilize prices.

In addition, stabilizing external demand and expanding domestic demand are also the basis for work next year.

　　Wang Jun, chief economist of Centaline Bank, also believes that the core of the triple pressure is shrinking demand, which may be highlighted in these two aspects in 2022: First, the continued exposure of real estate risks may trigger a continuous decline in real estate investment. The investment angle drags down economic growth, on the other hand, it will also weaken the driving force of related consumption; second, the decline in exports, along with the misalignment of opening up or recovery at home and abroad, may cause fluctuations in China's export market share in 2022.

　　Cheng Shi believes that to deal with the triple pressure, we can start from two dimensions: one is to make a good combination of punches in the short-term; the other is to use the killer in the long-term.

In the short term, the economic situation is very complicated. A series of risks are intertwined and intensified. A single policy cannot solve it.

"In the Central Economic Work Conference, we proposed a more proactive fiscal policy, a stable and flexible monetary policy, an efficient employment policy, and a sufficient guarantee policy. I believe that all these policies together can help China face up. To this complicated situation."

　　In the long run, China is entering a period of high-quality development.

"In this process, what is China's killer feature?" Cheng Shi said, "It is the continuous improvement of total factor productivity. The transformation of a series of policy concepts such as science and technology, education, industry, new development concepts, and policy actions Implementation will help China find new momentum in its long-term development in the future."

　　Wang Jun said that although the Central Economic Work Conference still has a "positive + prudent" keynote for macroeconomic policies, it has also made fine adjustments to maintain the necessary expansion and marginal easing to support the real economy.

"Fiscal policy will be more proactive, the intensity of expenditure will be greater, and the progress of expenditure will be faster."

　　"The employment problem of young people has also become more prominent. The state must continue to provide policy support in terms of employment. At the same time, it must provide necessary assistance to specific industries and specific groups of people, such as real estate, education and training and other industries that are heavily affected by policies." Wang Jun said.

(Finish)