On Thursday, December 30, the Russian currency depreciates on the Moscow Exchange.

By the middle of the day, the dollar rate rose by 1.1% - up to 74.89 rubles, and the euro rate - by 0.9%, up to 84.64 rubles. 

At the same time, the outgoing year was largely successful for the ruble.

Natalya Milchakova, deputy head of the Alpari information and analytical center, expressed this point of view in an interview with RT.

“Over the year, the Russian currency has strengthened by about 8% against the European one, and relative to the American indicators have practically not changed.

The situation looks quite good when compared with the dynamics of the Turkish lira and a number of other emerging market currencies.

In the past year, of course, there were periods of volatility, but on the whole, the ruble showed quite a decent result, ”Milchakova emphasized.

Note that in 2021, the national currency met near the marks of 73-75 rubles per dollar and 90-92 rubles per euro.

Already at the beginning of spring, the indicators dropped to 72.5 and 86.5 rubles, but after that they began to grow sharply.

So, in April, rates rose to 78 and 92.8 rubles, respectively.

The achieved values ​​were the highest in the current year.

“At that time, the weakening of the ruble was associated with the general strengthening of the dollar on the international market, the worsening situation with the pandemic in the world, as well as the risks of introducing lockdowns in a number of countries.

Additional pressure on the Russian currency was exerted by the growing tension in relations between Russia and Ukraine, "Mikhail Shulgin, head of the Otkrytie Investments global research department, explained in a conversation with RT.

In addition, as experts note, investors were seriously alarmed by the news about possible US sanctions against the Russian national debt and Nord Stream 2.

However, the fears of market players ultimately did not materialize.

On April 15, Washington imposed new restrictions on Moscow and banned its financial institutions from buying Russian federal loan bonds (OFZ).

Meanwhile, the sanctions turned out to be less harsh than anticipated.

The measures affected only the primary market for Russian debt securities.

At the same time, American investors retained the opportunity to purchase new bonds through intermediaries.

Moreover, the ban did not affect European and Asian buyers of OFZ.

Later it became known about the refusal of the United States to impose new sanctions against Nord Stream 2.

President Joe Biden motivated this decision by the fact that the gas pipeline was almost completely completed, and additional restrictions would become counterproductive for relations between the United States and Europe.

“When it became clear that the threat of tougher sanctions would not materialize, investors sighed more calmly.

By that time, optimism had already returned to the financial markets of the world, and from mid-April the ruble began to move in a general direction.

The players were also reassured by the agreement on a meeting between the presidents of Russia and the United States, which took place in June, "said Mark Goikhman, chief analyst of TeleTrade Group, to RT.

Support for currency

During the summer and most of the fall, the Russian currency was mostly strengthening on the Moscow Exchange.

At the same time, at the end of October, the dollar and euro rates for the first time in a year and a half fell below 70 and 81 rubles, respectively.

According to Mark Goikhman, the rise in world oil prices provided significant support to the national currency.

So, if back in January 2021 the price of a barrel of the Brent benchmark was fluctuating at the level of $ 50-55, then in October the indicator renewed its three-year maximum and exceeded the $ 86 mark.

The skyrocketing prices could also be observed in the gas market, especially in Europe.

At the beginning of 2021, fuel in the EU was traded at $ 230 per 1,000 cubic meters, and in October quotations came close to $ 2,000 per 1,000 cubic meters.

This happened for the first time in the entire history of observations.

This state of affairs additionally pushed the Russian markets and the currency to growth, emphasized Mikhail Shulgin.

“It is difficult to imagine a more favorable external environment for an oil and gas exporter country.

Companies paid generous dividends, and in general, the Russian stock market, after the decrease in the degree of geopolitical tension, looked extremely attractive for international and local investors, ”the expert noted.

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  • © Nasser Nuri

Also, support for the national currency was provided by the policy of the Bank of Russia, says Mark Goikhman.

In 2021, as part of the fight against inflation, the regulator raised the key rate seven times and raised it from 4.25 to 8.5% per annum.

“The actions of the Central Bank increased the profitability of ruble assets, made them more attractive to investors, which also increased the demand for the Russian currency.

This was one of the main reasons that the dollar rate dropped below 70 rubles, ”explained Goikhman.

Market cold snap

In November, under the influence of a number of external factors, the Russian currency began to weaken again.

So, during the month, the dollar and euro rates rose to 75.9 and 85.7 rubles, respectively.

“At the beginning of the month, the US Federal Reserve, which has been pouring printed money into the economy for a year and a half, announced the start of curtailing its stimulus programs.

The prospect of a reduction in the inflow of money led to a decrease in demand for commodities, securities, currencies of emerging markets and, in particular, for the ruble, "explained Mark Goykhman.

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  • © Maxim Blinov

In addition, at the end of November, a new strain of the omicron coronavirus was identified, and many states again began to impose quarantine restrictions.

Against the background of heightened concerns about the prospects for the global economy, investors began to actively sell off raw materials and emerging market currencies.

At the same time, oil prices dropped below $ 66 per barrel.

At the same time, investors began to worry about another round of tensions between Moscow and the West, said Mark Goikhman.

So, according to him, the United States and the EU have increased the sanctions rhetoric in connection with the emergence of news about the allegedly impending Russian invasion of Ukraine.

“Nevertheless, the situation has softened somewhat since December: the presidents of Russia and the United States again talked, but this time in the format of a video conference.

The emotional decline in oil prices turned out to be excessive, and they returned to $ 80 per barrel.

Another increase in the key rate of the Central Bank also played a role.

As a result, the ruble against the dollar returned to the same values ​​from which it began 2021, ”concluded Goikhman.