Approaching the end of the year, the international community looks forward to the economic situation in 2022-


Optimistic about China's economic performance next year (Sharp Finance)

  As the end of the year is approaching, the international community is looking forward to the economic situation in 2022.

Among them, China is particularly interesting.

On December 22, the latest report released by the World Bank showed that after a strong rebound in the first half of 2021, the actual annual growth rate of the Chinese economy will reach 8%, and the growth rate in 2022 will reach 5.1%.

  Analysts believe that despite the triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shocks, and weakening expectations, the fundamentals of China’s economic stability and long-term improvement remain unchanged. China’s economy has sufficient potential, great resilience, strong vitality, and large room for maneuver. The basic characteristics of many policy tools have not changed, and the advantages and conditions of China's development in many aspects have not changed.

These are the deep logic behind the outside world's optimism about China's economy.

  Key indicators "Progress in stability"

  There are many voices optimistic about China's economic performance in 2022.

  Moody's of the United States pointed out that compared with other countries, China's strong economic growth prospects and policy support for foreign investment make China still attractive to foreign investment.

Argentina’s “Clarion” reported that facts have proved that China’s economic development goals can be achieved as scheduled, and the recent series of measures have strengthened the confidence of the outside world.

Claudia Vernodi, head of the Belgian China-Europe Digital Association, said that although the current global epidemic is tumultuous and economic recovery is challenging, China’s economic growth momentum is strong and the characteristics of high-quality development are more distinctive, and it continues to become the largest global economic growth. driving force.

  Why does the outside world continue to be optimistic about China's economy?

The performance of key economic indicators played a role.

  Looking at the growth rate, in the first three quarters of this year, China’s economic growth rate was 9.8%, which was significantly higher than that of major economies in the world. Looking at employment, from January to November, 12.07 million new jobs were created in cities and towns across the country, exceeding the annual target; In terms of commodity prices, from January to November, the national consumer price rose by 0.9% year-on-year, which was within a reasonable range; looking at foreign investment, the country absorbed RMB 1042.2 billion in foreign investment from January to November, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%; looking at foreign trade, from January to October, the country’s investment The total export value was 31.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%, a record high in the same period in history...

  Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said in an interview with our reporter that in 2021, despite the complex situation of increasing risks and challenges at home and abroad, China has actively explored and responded in a timely manner to effectively resolve the risks and challenges and achieve economic and social development. "Progress in stability."

  “Some time ago, my country’s coal and other bulk commodities experienced price fluctuations affected by the domestic and foreign situation. After the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments took relevant measures, coal inventories were quickly replenished and the supply of energy and bulk commodities improved. By November, national industrial producers The ex-factory price index (PPI) year-on-year increase has fallen back. This fully proves that the Chinese economy has a strong ability to adjust in the face of disturbances." Zhang Liqun said.

  Continuous improvement of development quality

  The optimism of the outside world is inseparable from the increasing quality of China's economic development.

  According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, from 2012 to 2020, China's industrial added value has increased from 20.9 trillion yuan to 31.3 trillion yuan, the number of Internet users has increased from 564 million to 989 million, and the Internet penetration rate has increased from 42.1% to 70.4%.

At the same time, as the only country in the world that has all the industrial categories of the United Nations Industrial Classification, during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, it has further formed a large-scale and technologically advanced production capacity in many industries, and has more than 40% of the world's 500 major industrial products. Its output ranks first in the world.

  Since the beginning of the year, China’s industrial economy has worked hard to overcome the impact of unfavorable factors at home and abroad, and has generally continued a steady recovery. From January to October, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 10.9% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 6.3%. The growth rate continued in major economies. Stay ahead.

In November, the output of new energy vehicles, industrial robots, and integrated circuits increased by 112%, 27.9%, and 11.9% respectively year-on-year, reflecting the rapid development momentum of high-tech industries in China.

  "Our country is in the stage of rapid development of new industrialization, informatization, urbanization, and agricultural modernization. With the accelerated implementation of the strategic deployment of building a new development pattern, comprehensive deepening of reforms and high-level opening up to the outside world continue to advance, the development potential of industry and informatization is huge and there is room for Broad." Xiao Yaqing, Minister of Industry and Information Technology, said that China's economy has shifted from a stage of rapid growth to a stage of high-quality development. Traditional competitive advantages and growth momentum have gradually weakened, and it is urgent to accelerate the transformation of development momentum.

In the future, it is necessary to maintain a basically stable proportion of the manufacturing industry, vigorously improve industrial innovation capabilities, enhance the stability and competitiveness of the industrial chain supply chain, accelerate the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure, accelerate the cultivation and growth of high-quality enterprises, and pragmatically promote the sustainable and healthy development of the digital economy and further deepen Reform and expand opening up, and accelerate the construction of a mutually beneficial and win-win global industrial chain supply chain division and cooperation system.

  Facing difficulties and going up with more stamina

  Ning Jizhe, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission and director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said: "'Stability is the first, and progress is made while stability' means to focus on stabilizing the macroeconomic market and continuously making new progress in promoting high-quality development. In the specific work, We must adhere to the principle of standing first and then breaking, steady and stable, and by grasping the timeliness and effectiveness of adjusting policies and promoting reforms, we must achieve a benign interaction and dynamic balance of stability and progress."

  Lowering the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points, issuing a limit of 1.46 trillion yuan for new special bonds in 2022 in advance to all localities, and guiding banks to innovate products such as insurance policy financing in accordance with the needs of foreign trade enterprises... In Zhang Liqun’s view, the newly launched one A series of steady growth measures are highly targeted and forward-looking.

  "Whether it is'appropriately advance infrastructure investment', or'promoting the construction of affordable housing', or'making and implementing a ten-year plan for basic research,' a series of scientific deployments made by the Central Economic Work Conference have released stronger stability. Growth signals. With the implementation of relevant measures, China's economy is expected to achieve a stable start, steady improvement and quarterly recovery in 2022. At the same time, new momentum is also expected to grow further, demonstrating the resilience and stamina to overcome the'triple pressure'." Zhang Liqun said.

  Our reporter Wang Junling

Keywords: