China-Singapore Jingwei, December 15 (Xue Yufei) On the 15th, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in November 2021.
In November, the property market in 70 cities continued to cool down. In terms of quantity, there were 9 cities where the price of new homes rose month-on-month, and only 3 cities where the price of second-hand homes rose month-on-month.
Industry insiders believe that the number of cities with rising prices of new and second-hand houses has fallen to single digits, which is rare in the housing price data of 70 cities in recent years.
However, we must also note that the market has shown signs of bottoming, and first-tier cities with strong demand are likely to take the lead in stabilizing.
The number of cities with rising housing prices fell to single digits
Data map: sand table of the sales department.
Photo by Xue Yufei, Sino-Singapore Jingwei
“In November, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities continued to decline from the previous month, and the year-on-year increase continued to fall.” As for the housing price data of 70 cities, Sheng Guoqing, chief statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, explained.
The number of cities where housing prices have risen and fallen in 70 large and medium-sized cities from the previous month is a measure of how cold the property market is.
Since the second half of this year, among the 70 cities, the number of cities where the sales price of newly-built commercial housing has risen from the previous month has continued to decrease, with 55, 51, 46, 27, and 13 from June to October, and until November, more It is down to nine.
At the same time, the number of cities where the sales price of newly-built commercial housing has fallen from the previous month has gradually increased. From June to October, there were 12, 16, 20, 36, and 52 respectively. By November, it rose to 59.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, analyzed China-Singapore Jingwei that the price of new houses in 59 cities fell month-on-month, which was the largest decline in housing prices since March 2015.
The same is true for second-hand housing.
Beginning in April 2021, the number of cities where the sales price of second-hand housing has risen from the previous month has begun to decrease. From April to November, there are 54, 50, 48, 41, 27, 17, 4, and 3 respectively; From June to November, the number of cities where prices fell gradually increased, namely 16, 26, 34, 52, 64, and 63.
According to Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, the number of cities where the sales prices of new and second-hand houses have risen month-on-month has fallen to 9 and 3 respectively, both falling to single digits, which is rare in the housing price data of 70 cities in recent years.
In November, the 9 cities where new house prices increased month-on-month were Sanya (0.7%), Hangzhou (0.5%), Beijing (0.3%), Yinchuan (0.3%), Yueyang (0.3%), Shanghai (0.2%), and Xi’an. (0.2%), Changsha (0.2%), Huizhou (0.1%), the three cities where the price of second-hand housing increased month-on-month were Ganzhou (0.4%), Haikou (0.3%), and Tangshan (0.2%).
Second and third-tier cities have obvious cooling trends
Data map: buildings.
Photo by Sino-Singapore Jingwei Wan Keyi
In terms of city levels, data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in November, the sales price of newly built commercial housing in first-tier cities remained flat month-on-month, while the sales price of second-hand housing fell by 0.2% month-on-month, and the rate of decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.
Zhang Bo, Dean of 58 Anju Guest House Industry Research Institute, told Sino-Singapore Jingwei that from the above data, it can be seen that the cooling trend in first-tier cities has slowed down. Housing prices can clearly see that although the downward trend of housing prices in first-tier cities remains unchanged, the rate of decline is narrowing.
In November, the sales prices of new homes and second-hand homes in second-tier cities fell by 0.4% month-on-month, and the rate of decline was 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points larger than the previous month.
The sales price of new houses in third-tier cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month, the same rate of decline as last month; the price of second-hand houses fell by 0.4% month-on-month, and the rate of decline was 0.1 percentage point higher than the previous month.
Zhang Bo believes that the cooling trend in second- and third-tier cities is clearly accelerating.
The month-on-month decline in the prices of new and second-hand houses in second-tier cities has further expanded. Among them, cities in North China and Northeast China, such as Shijiazhuang, Taiyuan, Harbin, and Changchun, have performed particularly well. This is also an important reason why such cities have frequently introduced policies to boost the property market recently.
Judging from the recent policies of these cities, it is a point-like exploratory policy that will have a certain decelerating effect on the downward trend, but it is difficult to reverse the trend of market cooling.
Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst at the Shell Research Institute, also said that the weaker second-tier and third- and fourth-tier cities continue to expand in decline. The overall support for housing demand in these cities is weak, and it will take longer for market expectations to build a bottom and improve.
First-tier cities may be the first to stabilize
Data map: sand table of the sales department.
Photo by Xue Yufei, Sino-Singapore Jingwei
Regarding the market performance in November, Xu Xiaole believes that the overall decline in housing prices is due to the fact that the current market transaction boom is still at the bottom of the adjustment period, and buyers have a strong voice; on the other hand, some banks have released mortgage loan lines towards the end of the year. , The demand for housing has recovered. In this context, the supply side has lowered prices in order to sell houses as soon as possible before the end of the year. For example, there are more price cuts among second-hand house owners, and housing companies have cut prices in the early stage for promotion.
But the market is not frozen at this point. Several interviewed experts judged from the data in November that first-tier cities may be the first to stabilize.
Based on the comprehensive data of Sino-Singapore Jingwei, from the transaction volume of second-hand housing in November, the transaction volume in Beijing reached 11,851 units, an increase of 26.9% from the previous month; the transaction volume in Shanghai was 150.5 million units, an increase of 12.35% from the previous month; and the transaction volume in Guangzhou was 6,044 units, an increase of 15.1 from the previous month. %; Shenzhen's trading volume exceeded 2347 sets, an increase of 32% from the previous month, ending a 9-month consecutive decline.
But it should also be pointed out that due to the National Day holiday in October, the transaction situation in that month will be lower than the normal month.
“Demand in first-tier cities is strong. After the rapid downward adjustment in July-October, some home buyers have seen a stabilization trend and started buying homes. In addition, credit policies have gradually eased and home buyers can trade normally. On the whole, with credit and other various With the emergence of the policy of stabilizing the property market, first-tier cities are expected to take the lead in stabilizing." Zhang Dawei said.
Xu Xiaole predicts that the decline in housing prices will gradually narrow in the later period.
According to data from the Shell Research Institute, the second-hand housing transaction volume of Shell 50 City continued to rebound from October to November, showing signs of bottoming in the market.
According to the basic law of "quantity comes before price", the initial bottoming of the quantity will lay the foundation for the later price to stop falling.
Zhang Bo said that the downward trend is not expected to change sharply in December this year. The market will continue to cool down before the Spring Festival, but the cooling rate will narrow. Among them, the first-tier cities may usher in a slight increase in 2022.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
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