CPI in 31 provinces announced in November: 14 land prices rose lower than the whole country, this land rose the slowest

　　China-Singapore Jingwei, December 14 (Xiong Siyi) The National Bureau of Statistics announced that the consumer price index (CPI) of 31 provinces in November showed that the November CPI increase in 14 provinces was lower than that of the whole country, and the lowest increase in Yunnan was 0.8%.

14 Land prices have risen lower than the national price

　　Data show that in November 2021, the national CPI rose by 2.3% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month.

Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician in the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that the year-on-year increase has increased significantly, not only because of the new price increase that month, but also mainly due to the low base of the same period last year.

　　Comparing data from 31 provinces, Yunnan and Tibet’s November CPI increased by less than 1% year-on-year, 0.8% and 0.9% respectively; Hainan, Chongqing, Guizhou, Xinjiang, Hunan, Sichuan, Henan, Gansu, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hubei, Guangxi 12 The CPI of the provinces in November increased by more than 1% year-on-year, but lower than the national level; the CPI of the remaining 17 provinces increased year-on-year higher than the national level, of which Tianjin and Ningxia increased by as much as 3%.

　　Huatai Securities pointed out that in November, the national CPI rose significantly from 1.5% in October to 2.3%. The

　　The National Bureau of Statistics pointed out that from a year-on-year perspective, the price of pork fell by 32.7%, 11.3 percentage points lower than the previous month; the price of fresh vegetables rose by 30.6%, an increase of 14.7 percentage points from the previous month; eggs, freshwater fish and food Vegetable oil prices rose by 20.1%, 18.0% and 9.7% respectively.

Meat and vegetable price rises are unsustainable

　　According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from December 3 to December 10, the

month-on-month

, down 39.1% year-on-year; the average price of 19 kinds of vegetables was 5.12 yuan/

Kg, a month-on-month decrease of 3.7% and a year-on-year increase of 37.1%.

　　Dong Lijuan pointed out that due to factors such as seasonal growth in consumer demand and short-term tight supply of fat pigs, the price of pork has turned from falling to rising.

Various localities have taken multiple measures to ensure the supply of "vegetable baskets". With the gradual increase in the number of vegetables on the market, the price increase of fresh vegetables has fallen.

　　Looking forward, China Securities Investment believes that since December, the supply and demand pattern of pork has been loose, prices have a slight correction trend, and the supply and demand situation of vegetables will also improve further to ease.

　　Guotai Junan said that with the acceleration of the production of fat pigs and the launch of seasonal vegetables, vegetable prices have been markedly adjusted, and pork prices have also shown signs of peaking. It is expected that the probability of short-term meat and vegetable prices continuing to rise is low.

　　Huachuang Securities believes that the recent increase in vegetable prices, pork prices and oil prices is unsustainable or even declines, and the possibility of subsequent sharp increases is unlikely.

How will CPI go in the future?

　　Looking forward to December, both Huachuang Securities and CITIC Construction Investment believe that there is a high probability that the CPI in December will fall below 2% year-on-year.

Zheshang Securities also said that with the weakening of the carryover factor, the CPI will fall in December.

　　"Combined with previous price trends and a series of related factors, it is expected that the year-on-year increase in CPI in December will be the same as that in November, and the annual CPI increase is expected to remain at about 2%." Professor Cao Heping from the School of Economics of Peking University said in an interview with the media.

　　In addition, Guotai Junan predicts that the CPI will be low before high in 2022, and the upward momentum will mainly be the pig cycle rebound and the transmission of PPI to CPI.

　　On December 6, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released the "Blue Book of Economics" for 2022. It is expected that prices will rise moderately in 2022, PPI growth will decline, CPI growth will increase, PPI will rise about 5%, CPI will rise about 2.5%, and the scissors gap between the two will be significantly reduced. .

　　Li Xuesong of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences pointed out that in the context of the uncertainty of the epidemic and the insufficient and unstable recovery of household consumption, the CPI will be in a moderate range in 2022, and the possibility of full-scale inflation risk is unlikely.

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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