How about the "scissors gap" narrowing future price trends?
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 9th, in November, the PPI (industrial producer's ex-factory price index) rose by 12.9% year-on-year, 0.6 percentage points lower than the previous month, and the same month-on-month; CPI (national consumer price index) rose by 2.3% year-on-year %, the increase was 0.8 percentage points higher than the previous month, and the month-on-month increase was 0.4%.
The "scissors gap" between PPI and CPI's year-on-year increase in the month narrowed.
"In November, as the implementation of the policy of ensuring supply and price stabilization continued to increase, the rapid rise in the prices of coal, metals and other energy and raw materials was initially curbed, and the PPI growth rate fell." said Dong Lijuan, senior statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics.
Egg prices rose by 20.1% year-on-year
Mainly affected by the low base in the same period last year, in November, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased year-on-year.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 9th, in November, the CPI rose by 2.3% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, but the month-on-month increase dropped 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Domestic prices generally maintained a stable operation.
From a year-on-year perspective, the price increase of CPI "basket" commodities in November has mostly expanded.
Among them, the price of food changed from a 2.4% year-on-year decrease to an increase of 1.6% year-on-year.
In food, the price of fresh vegetables, eggs, freshwater fish and edible vegetable oil all increased by more than 9%, of which the price of eggs rose by 20.1% year-on-year.
It is worth noting that due to factors such as seasonal consumption demand growth and short-term tight supply of fat pigs, the price of pork, which accounts for a large part of the CPI, has rebounded significantly. In November, pork prices fell by 32.7% year-on-year, and the rate of decline narrowed by 11.3 compared with the previous month. Percentage points; from a month-on-month decline to an increase of 12.2%.
"Affected by unfavorable weather such as cooling and blizzards in some areas, the production and transportation costs of fresh agricultural and sideline products have increased since the beginning of winter, superimposed on the festive consumption and procurement towards the end of the year, the demand for food increased seasonally, and the prices of vegetables, fruits, pork, etc. all appeared to be different. The increase in the degree has led to the expansion of the CPI increase." Guo Liyan, Director of the Comprehensive Situation Office of the China Academy of Macroeconomics, analyzed.
However, from a month-on-month perspective, the price of fresh vegetables that the society paid attention to in the early stage has dropped significantly.
As various localities take measures to ensure the supply of "vegetable baskets", the quantity of vegetables on the market has gradually increased. The month-on-month increase in fresh vegetable prices in November dropped sharply by 9.8 percentage points from the previous month.
The reporter learned from the Shandong Shouguang Dili Agricultural Products Logistics Park, the hometown of Chinese vegetables, that China's vegetable price index, known as the "barometer" of vegetable prices, has fallen for three consecutive weeks. Recently, vegetable prices have been on a downward trend as a whole.
He Xiaojie, an analyst for China's vegetable price index at Shouguang Dili Agricultural Products Logistics Park, said that according to the forecast of the meteorological department, there will be a snowfall in some northern areas in the near future, but this will have little impact on the main vegetable producing areas such as Shandong and Yunnan at this stage, and southern dishes will Entering the concentrated listing period, the market supply will gradually be sufficient, and it is unlikely that vegetable prices will rise in the short term and will maintain a slight downward trend.
Statistics show that since October, the year-on-year increase in CPI has continued to expand.
Wang Likun, an associate researcher at the Institute of Market Economy of the Development Research Center of the State Council, suggested that at present, we must continue to strengthen the supply and price stabilization of important livelihood commodities, speed up the improvement of the linkage mechanism of social assistance and guarantee standards and price increases, and guarantee the basic livelihood of the needy groups.
The effect of ensuring supply and price stabilization in the metal industry appears
Different from the expansion of the CPI year-on-year increase, the year-on-year increase of the National Industrial Producer Price Index (PPI) in November dropped by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the rapid increase in the prices of coal, metals and other energy and raw materials over the past few months has been initially curbed.
Specifically, in November, the year-on-year growth rate of coal mining and processing industry prices fell by 14.9 percentage points, the year-on-year growth rate of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry prices fell by 8.9 percentage points, and the year-on-year growth rate of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry prices fell 3.0 percentage points. .
From a month-on-month perspective, prices in some major industries have dropped significantly.
According to Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician at the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, multi-sectoral linkages have curbed the irrational rise in coal prices. Coal production and market supply have continued to increase. The price of coal mining and washing has changed from a month-on-month increase of 20.1% to a decrease of 4.9%; The effect of maintaining supply and stabilizing prices in the metal industry has appeared. The price of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries has changed from a month-on-month increase of 3.5% to a decrease of 4.8%.
Industry insiders analyzed that although prices in some major industries fell in November, the year-on-year increase was still relatively high, and the price increase in oil and gas extraction, gas production and supply, and food manufacturing industries increased. At present, there is still a need to strengthen commodity prices. Monitoring, continue to make efforts to ensure the supply of bulk commodities and stabilize prices.
"Currently, prices in many industries such as home improvement have risen significantly, and the trend of commodity prices being transmitted to the prices of some terminal consumer goods may continue. In this regard, targeted measures must be taken to strengthen economic operation adjustments, introduce cost-sharing mechanisms, and increase The support of downstream small, medium and micro enterprises has further eased the transmission pressure of commodity prices." Wang Likun said.
PPI gains are expected to continue the downward trend as a whole
Recently, global inflationary pressures have risen.
In the context of economic globalization, continued global inflationary pressures will affect the operation of my country's prices?
Guo Liyan analyzes that looking forward to a period of time in the future, my country’s grain production will have another bumper harvest, which has remained above 1.3 trillion catties for seven consecutive years. The market for fresh agricultural and sideline products such as vegetables and pork is adequately supplied, production and sales are smoothly connected, and the overall supply of goods and services in the consumer sector Sufficient, the domestic CPI has a solid foundation to maintain stable operation.
With the gradual implementation of various measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices, the prices of most industrial products may tend to fall, and it is expected that the PPI growth rate in the later period is expected to continue the downward trend in general.
"With the precise implementation of cross-cycle macro-control measures, the effects of deepening the supply-side structural reforms have continued to be released, the coordination of economic work has been further enhanced, the supply and demand cycles, industrial cycles, and market cycles of the national economy will be further smoothed, and the basis for stabilizing the overall price level will be More reliable, the annual price target can be achieved smoothly." Guo Liyan said.
analyze
Monetary policy should continue to be "self-oriented"
In November, CPI rose by 2.3% year-on-year.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, pointed out that in November, the increase in the PPI for means of subsistence accelerated, and the price of non-food, especially consumer goods, increased. Although there are certain base reasons, it also reflects the transmission of prices to the downstream.
Liu Xuezhi, a senior researcher at the Financial Research Center of the Bank of Communications, said that from the economic data available in November, first, high-frequency data showed that the prices of industrial primary products have fallen, and structural inflationary pressures are expected to be alleviated; second, efforts to maintain supply and stabilize prices are intensified. , Electricity and production restrictions have become looser, and the production side has recovered.
However, the economic operation is still under pressure, terminal demand is weak, and the impact of spot-like spreading risks on the economy has increased.
In general, experts believe that with the increase in the base number and the implementation of the policy of guaranteeing supply and stabilizing prices, the PPI may continue to fall in the later period, and the subsequent monetary policy should continue to be "self-oriented."
Lian Ping, Chief Economist and Dean of the Research Institute of Zhixin Investment, believes that stable growth should be placed in a more prominent position, and the prevention and control of financial risks should be emphasized. Monetary policy needs to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, promote appropriate expansion of credit, and promote market financing. Costs have fallen and continued precise measures on structural issues.
Wen Bin believes that the central bank will continue to implement a prudent monetary policy in the future, further enhance the autonomy, forward-looking and effectiveness of monetary policy, take into account internal and external balances, continue to use structural and direct policy tools, and increase support for small and medium-sized enterprises and green development. , Scientific and technological innovation and other key areas and weak links of support, promote the economy to climb through the hurdles, and promote economic operation within a reasonable range.
Text combined with pictures/Xinhua News Agency