New energy vehicles will usher in explosive growth

　　Our reporter Liu Jin

　　On December 2, at the media communication meeting of the China Electric Vehicles Association, Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicles Association, predicted that domestic sales of new energy vehicles could reach 3.3 million units this year; new energy in 2022 Automobile sales will reach about 5 million, and the market share will exceed 20%.

He said that this is still a conservative prediction made under the constraints of batteries, chips and production capacity. If we look at the demand completely, the data will be even higher.

　　"China's new energy automobile industry is about to enter a new stage of market-oriented development." This is a new definition of the new energy automobile industry that has been developed by the Chinese Electric Vehicles Association for 10 years.

　　The market is hotter than expected

　　Ouyang Minggao made the above-mentioned expectations against the background of the current continued hotness of the new energy automobile industry.

　　It is reported that the sales of many new energy car companies increased by more than 100% in November, setting a record high.

"Now the new energy vehicle market has entered a period of steep growth. The main reasons for the market outbreak are technological progress, rich products, and powerful policies. Although it exceeds expectations, it is logical." Ouyang Minggao said that the effect of subsidies on consumption is gradually fading. The proportion of car purchases based on market consumption has risen to nearly 75%.

　　Zhang Yongwei, vice chairman and secretary-general of the China Electric Vehicles Association of 100, analyzed that China's new energy vehicle industry has entered a new stage.

In recent years, the new energy vehicle industry has gone through a development phase from policy-driven to policy- and market-driven two-wheel drive. With the decline of all subsidies for car purchases next year, consumer demand and acceptance of electric vehicles have become market-driven. This is a milestone node in the development of new energy vehicles.

　　In 10 years, new energy vehicles have emerged from nothing, from not being taken seriously to a hundred schools of thought, from short battery life and slow charging to an era of long battery life, slow charging and fast charging and battery replacement. Potential to inject fresh blood into the automotive industry.

　　"Since this year, the sales and penetration rate of new energy vehicles have increased rapidly month by month. In the first 11 months, the sales of new energy vehicles are expected to be close to 3 million, and the total annual sales are expected to reach 3.3 million." Ouyang Minggao analyzed, according to the S-shape The empirical judgment of the growth curve shows that the global automotive electrification has broken through the critical point and entered a period of steep growth.

　　Ouyang Minggao predicts that by 2025, China's annual sales of new energy vehicles will reach 7 to 9 million; in 2030, it may reach 17 to 19 million.

From the perspective of the number of new energy vehicles, it will exceed 30 million in 2025, close to 100 million in 2030, close to 200 million in 2035, and close to 300 million in 2040.

　　Focus on low-carbon intelligent network connection

　　At the just-concluded Guangzhou Auto Show, vehicle companies have launched models equipped with solid-state lidars, ultra-high-definition cameras, millimeter wave radars, and long-distance ultrasonic sensors.

Many booths also exhibited cutting-edge vehicle technologies including smart cockpits, smart car operating systems, visual interaction, face recognition, voice artificial intelligence, and smart wearable device interconnection.

　　Especially in outdoor venues, some car companies have brought self-driving vehicles to the scene for audiences to experience.

The landing of autonomous vehicles on the road marks the gradual formation of an intelligent networked industry chain surrounding autonomous driving. Intelligent networked products have become the focus of industry competition, and a new era of change will begin again.

　　In this regard, Chen Qingtai, chairman of the China Electric Vehicles Association, said that the first half of the automotive revolution is electrification, but it is not limited to electrification. In this process, it provides many opportunities for other industries, especially high-tech industries, to promote automobiles. The industry is accelerating the transformation from electrification to low-carbon, connected and intelligent.

　　Chen Qingtai believes that the current high-end chip market, such as automotive AI chips and other products, has not yet solidified the production capacity, and the networked and intelligent industrial chain has not been solidified. "Therefore, my country will connect sensors, radars and other networked and intelligent products. The core parts and components related to chemical industry can reach the world, and even reach the highest level in the world."

　　In his view, on a global scale, China's level of connectivity and intelligence is not lagging behind.

China accounts for approximately 30% of global automobile production and sales, and is the world's largest producer and consumer.

Therefore, for the auto industry, the issue of the industrial chain may be even more important.

The impact of the epidemic has had a huge impact on the auto industry, and it also brings opportunities.

　　"It is definitely not right to be closed, but the safety of the industrial chain must be guaranteed. How to properly grasp the balance between the two is a very important issue." Chen Qingtai pointed out that we should not repeat the chip in the sensor, radar, etc. A controlled story.

The integration of networked and intelligent parts and components will bring great benefits to the safety of the industrial chain.

For example, a group of high-level companies have grown up that can produce the world's leading core components, so that even if the key components are "stuck", they have the strength to use exchange methods to crack them.

　　International brands compete on the same field

　　At present, my country's new energy vehicles maintain a good momentum of development in terms of market size and development quality. The private consumer market continues to grow, and the sinking market potential is gradually released. The Chinese auto market has become a battleground for global auto companies.

　　At the Guangzhou Auto Show, the lineup of new energy joint ventures is stronger than last year.

According to the statistics of the Guangzhou Auto Show Organizing Committee, the total number of cars on display at the Guangzhou Auto Show this year has reached 1,020. Auto companies at home and abroad exhibited a total of 241 new energy vehicles, of which 88 were exhibited by foreign brands.

　　"Since this year, the world's major car brands have entered China's new energy vehicle market one after another. In terms of fuel vehicles, China is a global market for competition. Now China's new energy vehicle market has evolved from the original competition from Chinese car companies to a global market. Car companies participate in the competition." Chen Qingtai said.

　　Ouyang Minggao also expressed the same view.

He believes that the joint ventures will collectively exert their efforts in the next year and the competition between Chinese and foreign brands of new energy vehicles will enter a fierce period in 2023.

　　International brands have undergone electrification transformation. Fortunately, China's new energy brands have already made arrangements in advance.

Last year, when the Chinese brand Huaren Express launched the 600,000 yuan high-heavy HiPhi X, many people found it incredible; this year, people seem to have become accustomed to the high-end Chinese self-owned brand electric vehicles.

　　Ouyang Minggao analyzed that from the perspective of core technology, domestic brands are strong.

The first is battery technology, which accounts for 60% of the technical content of electric vehicles. The current generation of battery technology in China is dominant; the second is that electric drives and power electronics are comparable to foreign countries, and the technical strength of some car companies Leading in the world.

　　From the perspective of the supply chain, my country's power battery industry chain is complete, 70% of the world's battery production capacity is in China, and products are supplied to the world.

Of course, chip supply has become a problem recently, but automotive chips only account for about 10% of all chips. At present, the problem of cyclical supply and demand imbalance is mainly caused.

In addition, automobiles have lower requirements for chip integration than mobile phones and other products. In the medium term, my country's independent technology is not difficult to solve the problem of new energy automobile chips.

　　From the perspective of vehicle brands, the outbreak of new energy vehicles is a challenge for old brands and an opportunity for new brands.

The vigorous development of new car-making forces in recent years has also created a new world for China's own brand of new energy vehicles in terms of brand image.

　　From an enterprise perspective, the rise of new energy vehicles has triggered a technological revolution in the automotive industry.

Independent brand enterprises are innovating and enterprising, new car-building forces are full of vitality, and joint ventures are gaining momentum and will soon be fully deployed.

In the next 5 years, the market will grow rapidly and competition will continue to be fierce.

　　Ouyang Minggao said that the upgrade of independent brands is much better than expected. "It is estimated that under the new wave of electrification and intelligence, Chinese brands will account for 60% of the Chinese market in 2030."