Musk called you to have a baby! "The low fertility rate is one of the greatest risks to human civilization"
Many people are powerful!
This time, it is the world's richest man, innovative pioneer, and Tesla CEO Elon Musk who screamed for the "birth of a baby".
He recently participated in the CEO Summit of The Wall Street Journal.
Wearing a "self-cutting hairstyle" on his head, he bluntly stated that one of the biggest risks facing human civilization is the low fertility rate.
Musk said seriously: "Please remember what I said today, the problem of humans has never been too much population, but not more people are born."
When Musk made the above remarks, more and more countries around the world are facing the problem of low birth rates, and many young people decide not to have children.
Studies have found that factors such as climate change, inequality, and high living and education costs are the main reasons for the low fertility rate of modern people.
"Too many very good and smart people think that there are too many people in the world, and population growth is out of control." Musk said, "But in fact, not enough people are the biggest risk. I can't emphasize enough. There are not enough people. many!"
If there are no children, civilization will collapse
Musk said that if people look at historical statistics, they will find that if people don't have more children, civilization will collapse.
Musk is the father of six children, and he also named the recently born child a Martian.
Musk said that he is trying to set an example of a good father, and he said that people must work hard to implement the fertility policy from now on.
Why are people increasingly reluctant to have children?
There may be multiple factors working together.
As early as 2018, studies have found that climate change has directly and indirectly accelerated the decline in global fertility.
Researchers at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) revealed the impact of extreme weather on the population.
According to Alan Barrera, a professor at the UCLA Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development (Alan Barrera) team, the number of births in the United States has fallen within nine months after the extreme heat event.
Other reasons for the lower birth rate associated with climate change may be due to air pollution affecting fertility.
A study of nearly 20,000 couples in China last year showed that climate change, especially particulate pollution, may affect 20% of the fertility rate.
In addition, Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a report to investors in July this year: “Due to climate change concerns, calls for encouraging infertility are gradually rising, which has more impact on the global fertility rate than in the past. Any time."
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released preliminary statistics earlier this year, showing that the number of births in the U.S. will be 3.6 million in 2020, which is lower than the 3.74 million in 2019, a year-on-year decrease of 4%; the general fertility rate (calculated by all women of childbearing age) The fertility rate), that is, the fertility rate per 1,000 women of childbearing age (15 to 44 years old) is 55.8.
Since 2014, the general fertility rate in the United States has continued to decline at an average annual rate of 2%.
According to historical data, it is expected that the birth rate in the United States will also drop significantly in 2021.
The Brookings Institution of the United States predicted in December 2020 that the number of newborns in the United States will be reduced by about 300,000 in 2021, and the United States will experience a large-scale and long-lasting fertility depression.
According to the 2020 U.S. Census data, the total population has increased by only 7.4% over 10 years ago, which is the second lowest level in history since the Great Depression in 1930.
American media analysis believes that, unlike the 1930s, in the 10 years after the end of the Great Depression, the total population of the United States rebounded strongly, achieving a growth of 14.5%.
The slowdown in the total population growth this time is a long-term trend, and the main reasons behind it are the aging of the population, the decline in fertility and the lack of immigrants.
Fertility and the economy
The demographic structure has laid the cornerstone of a country's economic development, and more and more social problems have highlighted the lack of motivation for population growth, which will inevitably lead to a lack of motivation for economic development.
“Population is a very important contribution to the economy.” Zhang Jun, Dean of the School of Economics at Fudan University, told a reporter from China Business News. “After industrialization, with the advancement of technology, population has become an asset. Malthusian trap. However, as the economy develops and people’s income levels increase, the concept of fertility and willingness to give birth in modern society are also changing."
The "Malthus trap" theory believes that population growth is based on a geometric progression, while survival data only grows based on arithmetic progression. The increased population will always be eliminated in some way, and the population cannot exceed the corresponding agriculture. The level of development.
Zhang Jun told a reporter from China Business News: "After economic development, as people's income levels increase, the opportunity cost of childbirth has increased. Therefore, many people are unwilling to have children, and the fertility rate has declined at this time. China is also a typical example. "He believes that if the fertility rate continues to decline over time, the size of the population will decline.
But he emphasized that the relationship between population and economy is "non-linear".
The U.S. Federal Census Bureau (The Census Bureau) recently released a new statistical result. Among 130 million households in the United States, there are approximately 23.1 million "nuclear families" composed of married partners and minor children, accounting for only 23.1 million households. 17.8%, the lowest level since 1959.
In 1970, the proportion of nuclear families in the United States was 40%. Last year, the figure was 18.6%, indicating that the family structure is changing drastically.
In addition, the proportion of people living alone in the United States has also increased compared with the past, which has also affected the fertility rate.
At the beginning of 2021, more than 37 million adults across the country will live alone.
In 2011, about 33 million adults lived alone; in the 1960s, as many as 87% of adults lived with their spouses.
U.S. adults living alone say that the reasons they do not want to have children in the future include economic instability or lack of a partner.
The epidemic has also affected the global fertility rate.
The US Centers for Disease Control believes that the psychological pressure caused by the new crown epidemic has caused mental illnesses including anxiety, and has also affected the fertility rate in the United States.
Since 2020, the number of births in many countries has fallen by 10% to 20%.
The number of births in Italy in December 2020 decreased by 22% year-on-year; the number of births in January 2021 in Spain and France decreased by 20% and 13%, respectively.
According to data from the French National Institute of Statistics and Economics, the number of French births has fallen the most since 1975.
According to the National Survey of Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, the downward trend in Japan’s population in 2020 will continue.
At the same time, the number of people in Japan who choose to be single is on the increase. The number of households has increased by 4.2% compared with 2015. The average number of members in a single family has dropped from 2.38 in 2015 to 2.27.
The total population of China's neighbor, South Korea, has shown negative growth for the first time this year.
A statistical data released by the Korean Statistics Office on December 9 shows that the total population of South Korea this year (51.75 million including foreigners residing in South Korea) will decrease by 90,000 compared with 2020 (51.84 million).
In other words, South Korea’s population has experienced negative growth this year after peaking last year.
China's "three-child" policy is fully fired
The Chinese government is vigorously encouraging childbirth.
The "China Statistical Yearbook 2021" shows that the national birth rate in 2020 is 8.52‰, falling below 10‰ for the first time, setting a new low since 1978.
The natural population growth rate (birth rate-death rate) of the country during the same period was only 1.45‰, which was also a record low since 1978.
Census data shows that only 12 million babies were born in China last year, a decrease of 18% from 14.65 million in 2019.
Ning Jizhe, deputy leader of the Seventh National Census Leading Group of the State Council and Director of the National Bureau of Statistics, stated at the press conference of the State Information Office on May 11 that the total fertility rate of women of childbearing age in my country in 2020 The average number of children) is 1.3, which is already at a low level.
The 2020 Vital Statistics released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare on June 4 shows that Japan’s total fertility rate has dropped to 1.34.
However, China's per capita GDP is only one-fourth of Japan's.
Other Asian countries with low total fertility rates include Singapore (1.1) and South Korea (0.84).
The total fertility rate in Europe is about 1.6 to 1.7.
Ctrip co-founder Liang Jianzhang believes that the rapidly aging population and shrinking labor force will affect China's loss of scale.
"Because of its large scale, China has a very efficient supply chain; and when you have only half of the population, innovation capabilities may not be so dynamic." Liang Jianzhang said.
The phenomenon of "late marriage" has become more common.
According to the Yearbook of the National Bureau of Statistics, marriage registrations in China continued to decline for the seventh year last year, to 8.1 million, a 40% drop from the peak in 2013.
To curb the decline in the birth rate, China has introduced a "three-child" policy.
At present, the birth incentive measures introduced in various parts of China also include cash subsidies, real estate subsidies and extended maternity leave.
However, whether these policies can persuade women to give birth is still unknown.
After giving birth, women are often considered to be at a disadvantage in their careers.
The high cost of raising children is also considered to be the core issue affecting China's fertility rate.
Author: Qian Tongxin