China News Service, Beijing, December 8th (Reporter Pang Wuji) Since the beginning of this year, the steel market trend has been "high and low".
The price of steel saw a sharp rise for a while, and has since dropped significantly, and is still at a relatively high level.
How will the steel market go next year?
At the recently held "2021 (Tenth) China Iron and Steel Technology and Economic High-end Forum", Qu Xiuli, vice chairman and secretary-general of China Iron and Steel Association, pointed out that in the future, as policies gradually return to normal, comprehensive consideration of domestic and foreign macroeconomics and steel For the downstream manufacturing indicators, the demand for the steel industry will be relatively stable and weaker next year. Crude steel output lacks the basis for substantial growth, and it is difficult for steel prices to reproduce significant growth.
This year, my country's iron and steel industry policy has undergone major adjustments. The iron and steel industry has implemented dual control of production capacity and output. At the same time, the steel export tax rebate has been cancelled.
Beginning in June, monthly crude steel output has achieved a year-on-year decline for four consecutive months.
From January to October this year, my country's crude steel output declined slightly year-on-year.
Qu Xiuli pointed out that on the one hand, the decline in output promotes the return of iron ore prices and reduces the costs of steel companies; on the other hand, it forces companies to strengthen reform and innovation and take the road of high-quality development.
Since the beginning of this year, the performance of steel enterprises has improved, and the asset-liability ratio has fallen.
She pointed out that drastic fluctuations in market conditions are not conducive to corporate development.
Next year, the steel industry should balance supply and demand to stabilize the market when demand is relatively stable or slightly weakened. This is the most important prerequisite for the stable operation of the industry.
Li Xinchuang, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chief Engineer of the Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute, also said at the same forum that my country’s steel production has entered the peak platform area and will fluctuate at a scale of 1 billion tons for a long time. Double control of production capacity and output may become the norm. Policy.
Li Xinchuang pointed out that through analysis, the per capita crude steel consumption of typical developed countries such as the United Kingdom, France, the United States, Germany, Japan, and South Korea all entered a decline stage after reaching their peak.
In the medium and long term, with the deepening of my country’s transformation of economic development mode and adjustment of industrial structure, the proportion of the tertiary industry will continue to rise, the proportion of the secondary industry will decline, the role of investment in stimulating economic growth will weaken, and consumption will continue to drive economic growth. , So the intensity of steel consumption will show a downward trend.
Under this trend, the balance of supply and demand may mean a small decrease in output.
In the future, Li Xinchuang suggested that iron and steel companies rationally arrange production rhythms to comprehensively improve their levels of low energy consumption, low carbon, and environmental protection. At the same time, they should strive to increase the added value of products and increase profit margins under the background of stable or even reduced output.
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