The general direction of economic work in 2022 has been clear.
The Politburo meeting held on December 6 emphasized "stabilizing the word, seeking progress while maintaining stability" and "focusing on stabilizing the macroeconomic market", releasing a strong signal of stable growth.
The meeting clarified the specific connotations of the six aspects of next year's macro policy, micro policy, structural policy, science and technology policy, reform and opening policy, and social policy. For the first time, it proposed "realizing a virtuous circle of science and technology, industry, and finance."
Many experts analyzed that economic growth is the biggest challenge in 2022, and great efforts should be made to stabilize economic growth.
China will continue to implement cross-cycle macro-control policies, and policy formulation and implementation will place greater emphasis on flexibility, precision, efficiency, and goal orientation.
In the statement of the Politburo meeting, before the general keynote of the previous policy of “seeking progress while maintaining stability”, the word “stability is the top priority” was added, and “strive to stabilize the macroeconomic market”, “maintain the stability of the overall social situation”, and reiterated the “six stability”. Six guarantees".
Luo Zhiheng, deputy dean and chief macro analyst of Yuekai Securities Research Institute, told China Business News that steady growth has returned to the primary goal of policy.
Combining recent policies such as maintaining supply and stabilizing prices, real estate regulation and correction, and RRR cuts, stable growth returns to the primary task of policy considerations. A series of policies to stabilize consumption, investment and expand domestic demand will be introduced in the future.
Luo Zhiheng analyzed that the economy was in the process of continuous recovery in the first half of this year. The two-year average GDP growth rate rose from 5.0% in the first quarter to 5.5%. The Politburo meetings held on April 30 and July 30 did not mention " "Six stability" and "six guarantees".
However, since the second half of the year, the downward pressure on the economy has increased, real estate sales and investment have declined rapidly, and the enthusiasm of micro entities has declined.
Lu Ting, chief economist of Nomura China, also believes that "stability" has become the top priority of economic work in 2022, which means that the central government's concerns about economic slowdown have increased.
"Economic growth is the biggest challenge in 2022." Yang Weimin, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, previously stated that to maintain the normalization of the economy, we should make great efforts to stabilize the economic growth rate, because high-quality development also requires the economic growth rate to be kept at a reasonable level. Within the interval.
Liu Shijin, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, recently stated at the 2021 China Iron and Steel Technology and Economic High-end Forum that next year’s economic growth rate may begin to pick up from the second quarter, reaching a high point in the third quarter, and falling slightly in the fourth quarter. China’s economy has basically entered 5%~5.5% or 5% growth platform.
On December 6, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released the "Economic Blue Book: Analysis and Forecast of China's Economic Situation in 2022", which predicts that China's economy will grow by 8.0% in 2021 and is expected to grow by about 5.3% in 2022.
Xie Fuzhan, Dean of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, stated at the Blue Book press conference that the actual growth rate of my country's GDP is expected to reach about 8% in 2021, exceeding the expected target, and the economic growth rate will continue to maintain a leading position among the major economies.
At the same time, we should also be aware that there are still some problems and challenges facing my country's economic operation, which require focused research and proper response.
A report recently released by the China Macroeconomic Forum (CMF) is more optimistic.
The report believes that next year China’s macro economy will reverse the sluggish growth rate of China’s economic recovery in 2021. On the one hand, it will continue the momentum and foundation of the macroeconomic recovery in 2021. On the other hand, it will reposition the macroeconomic policy, readjust the coordination system, and re-adjust the growth rate. With the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and other factors, the downward pressure on the macro economy will be greatly eased.
Next year, the economy will show a trend of low and high, and the growth rate will reach 5.6% in the fourth quarter of next year, and it may reach a level of about 5.5% throughout the year.
Six major policy combinations make precise efforts
Six major policy combinations make precise efforts
The Politburo meeting mentioned six aspects of macro policy, micro policy, structural policy, science and technology policy, reform and opening policy, and social policy in the policy discourse.
Luo Zhiheng told a reporter from China Business News that this year’s policy has broken through the combination of the three major policies of macro, micro and social policies in previous years, and clearly mentioned the six major policies, which are more systematic and detailed, and take targeted and precise measures in different areas. The control ability and accuracy are improving.
Cheng Shi, chief economist of ICBC International, said in a survey conducted by the chief economist of CBN that the three basic characteristics of China's economic operation will be the quality and efficiency of economic development in 2022, the stable and controllable macro leverage, and the convergence of inflation and price differentiation. .
Based on this, China will continue to implement cross-cycle macro-control policies. The policy mix of "money loosening, credit tightening, and fiscal easing" will be maintained for a long time. Policy formulation and implementation will place greater emphasis on flexibility, precision, efficiency, and goal orientation.
Under the general policy tone of "stability and progress", the Politburo meeting called for "macro policies to be robust and effective." Specifically, proactive fiscal policies should improve efficiency and pay more attention to precision and sustainability; prudent Monetary policy must be flexible and appropriate to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity.
Luo Zhiheng analyzed that "improving efficiency" reflects that the current fiscal balance still exists, and the focus of active fiscal policy has shifted from "quantity" to "quality."
"Accurate" reflects that fiscal policies need to spend limited funds on the "knife edge" to better exert structural adjustment functions to serve the country's strategic tasks and overall stability.
The key tasks of next year's fiscal policy may include stabilizing the economy (expanding domestic demand), promoting economic transformation and upgrading, implementing the "dual carbon" goal, promoting common prosperity, promoting technological innovation, "six stability" and "six guarantees", and resolving risks.
"Emphasis on sustainability reflects that my country cherishes every bullet of its policy, not at the expense of overdrawing future fiscal space, and has a sense of historical responsibility. The policy not only considers the present, but also considers the future." Luo Zhiheng said that tax cuts must take into account long-term finances. Sustainability and the rationality of the tax system can stimulate the enthusiasm of market players and local governments, promote high-quality development and green economy, and promote social equity.
The China Financial Research Report believes that the nominal deficit rate may not rise in 2022, but considering that more than 1.8 trillion yuan of unused funds in 2021 will be carried over to 2022, the strengthening of fiscal strength is a high probability event, and it will be mainly through infrastructure, Transfer payments, tax cuts and fee reductions have been combined to promote post-epidemic economic recovery and medium- and long-term structural reforms.
On the basis of a prudent monetary policy, the renewed mention of "flexibility and appropriateness" may mean that in actual operation, it will make discretionary choices and tend to be stable but loose.
On the day of the Politburo meeting, the Central Bank announced that it would lower the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points on December 15, releasing 1.2 trillion yuan in liquidity.
However, institutions generally believe that part of the liquidity will be used to hedge the medium-term lending facility (MLF) that expires on the same day, and there is still some uncertainty in the final net investment volume.
Stimulate the vitality of market players
Stimulate the vitality of market players
The Politburo meeting also mentioned that micro-policies should stimulate the vitality of market players.
The latest data show that the total number of market entities nationwide has exceeded 150 million.
Since the beginning of this year, affected by multiple challenges such as the spread of the epidemic in many places, severe floods, rapid rise in commodity prices, and the once-tight supply of electricity and coal, enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, have increased their cost pressures and increased operating difficulties.
In response, the central government has issued a series of policies to the local governments to further promote tax reduction and fee reduction, guide financial institutions to increase support for the real economy, ensure supply and price stability, strengthen power supply guarantees, support enterprises to stabilize jobs and expand jobs, and provide guarantees. Payments for small and medium-sized enterprises are focused on expanding market demand, encouraging technological innovation, helping enterprises to relieve difficulties and stimulating vitality.
The "14th Five-Year Plan" first mentioned "independent science and technology", and high-level meetings have also mentioned technological innovation many times this year.
The Politburo meeting emphasized that the implementation of science and technology policies should be accelerated, continue to focus on key core technologies, strengthen national strategic science and technology forces, strengthen the position of enterprises in innovation, and realize a virtuous circle of science and technology, industry, and finance.
The "2021 Blue Book of China's Innovation and Entrepreneurship Ecological Development" released on December 7 shows that 102 new innovation-related policies will be added in 2021.
For example, in 2021, the percentage of additional deductions for R&D expenses of manufacturing enterprises will be increased from 75% to 100%. At the same time, the R&D expenses plus deductions and settlement accounting methods will be reformed to stimulate innovation and promote industrial upgrading. It is expected that additional tax reductions will be added for enterprises this year. 80 billion yuan.
This will greatly encourage Chinese manufacturing enterprises to increase investment in technological innovation, and it is expected that more enterprises will pay more attention to technological innovation in the future.
Ma Liang, a researcher at the National Institute of Development and Strategy at Renmin University of China and a professor at the School of Public Administration, believes that technological innovation has always been faced with the artificial fragmentation and "medium obstruction" of policy, R&D, industry and finance, and it is difficult to realize the transformation of technological innovation results and industry. Linkage cycle of development.
It is necessary to open up government-industry-university-research funds to make policies more precise and targeted, to provide policy support for scientific research and industrial docking, for industries to have scientific research support and capital inflows, and for finance to have policy support and venture capital projects to truly "realize technology and industry , A virtuous circle of finance".
Chen Daofu, deputy director of the Institute of Finance of the Development Research Center of the State Council, recently stated at the 2021 Macroeconomic Forum and Innovation Summit that China has reached a critical period in which industry, technology, and finance need to be transformed into a virtuous circle. The quality and efficiency of China's development in the new era will allow these three to form a virtuous circle. Building a platform to promote the cycle may be the key to the future.
Chen Daofu emphasized that in order to realize a virtuous circle between technology, industry and finance, it is also necessary to "see" and "understand" each other.
Compared with other fields, many outstanding achievements in the three fields of technology, industry, and finance are equivalent to "black boxes".
Therefore, in order for finance to support technological innovation, it must first "see" scientific and technological achievements, "understand" and be able to assess the potential market value of scientific and technological achievements in the future.
At this time, a bridge is needed, that is, a bridge between technology and industry, or between technology and finance, or between industry and finance.
Author: Zhu YanranKeywords: