Chinanews client, Beijing, December 9th (Reporter Xie Yiguan) In November, along with the upsurge of cured meat, pork ushered in a wave of price increases.

On December 9, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) in November. What will be the trend of CPI growth?

CPI year-on-year increase may return to the 2 era

　　Driven by factors such as rising vegetable prices, the CPI in October rose by 1.5% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. This not only ended the "four consecutive declines" trend, but also set a new high for the year in one fell swoop.

CPI rise and fall chart.

From the National Bureau of Statistics

　　How will CPI increase year-on-year in November?

According to statistics from Flush iFinD, 23 institutions have an average forecast of 2.51% for the year-on-year increase in CPI in November.

If the above average forecast value is fulfilled, the year-on-year increase in CPI in November will continue to expand and continue to hit a new high during the year.

　　"The price of edible agricultural products has continued to rise since the beginning of November, and has declined in late November." Liu Xuezhi, a senior researcher at the Financial Research Center of the Bank of Communications, said.

Among them, pork prices stopped falling and rebounded, and the year-on-year decline narrowed significantly.

　　In late November, a reporter from Chinanews.com noticed in a supermarket in Xicheng District, Beijing, that the front and back price of pork was 15.8 yuan per catty, and that of pork belly was 18.8 yuan per catty.

In mid-October, the front and back price here was still 11.8 yuan per catty, and the price of pork belly was 17.8 yuan per catty.

　　According to the monitoring of the "National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price Information System" of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in November 2021, the average wholesale price of pork (white strips) was 23.98 yuan/kg, a month-on-month increase of 22.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 39.3%.

The average wholesale price of the monitored 19 kinds of vegetables was 5.47 yuan/kg, an increase of 14.3% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 50.7%.

　　"Industrial product price increases are slowly transmitted to end consumer products, and the overall increase in non-food prices may expand. The CPI carry-over factor in November was 0.7%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from October. Combining the above factors, it is expected that the CPI will increase in November year-on-year. It will be expanded and is expected to be between 2.5% and 2.7%, with a median value of 2.6%, returning to the '2 era' after a lapse of 14 months." Liu Xuezhi pointed out.

CPI does not have the basis for a sharp rise

　　According to inspections by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from November 26 to December 3, the average weekly wholesale price of pork was 24.50 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 0.7% from the previous month. It has been rising for 7 consecutive weeks, down 37.9% year-on-year; the average price of 19 vegetables was 5.32 yuan /Kg, the month-on-month ratio continued to fall, an increase of 46.9% year-on-year.

Data map: In a large supermarket in Shijiazhuang City, Hebei Province, citizens are buying vegetables.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhai Yujia

　　"Combined with previous price trends and a series of related factors, the year-on-year increase in CPI in December is expected to be the same as in November, and the annual CPI increase is expected to remain at about 2%." Professor Cao Heping from the School of Economics of Peking University told a reporter from Chinanews.com.

　　“In the next stage, my country’s grain production is expected to have another bumper harvest. Live pig production capacity is currently recovering on the whole. Pork prices are still declining year-on-year, which will slow down the increase in CPI.” Fu Linghui, Director of the National Bureau of Statistics of the Comprehensive Statistics Department, said recently. At the same time, from the overall situation of industrial and service supply, the market supply is still relatively sufficient, and the CPI does not have the basis for a sharp rise.

　　"Combined with these conditions, my country's economy is expected to continue to recover steadily, and consumer prices will continue to rise moderately." Fu Linghui said.

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