China's economy is stable and far-reaching
China is still the largest contributor to global economic growth in 2021
"The attractiveness of China's financial market to foreign companies is huge, and it will only get bigger and bigger."
Norov Vladimir Imamovich, secretary-general of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, said at a recent forum that China will be the country with the largest foreign direct investment flow in 2020. Investment Opportunities".
——————————
After taking the lead in effectively controlling the new crown pneumonia epidemic, China's economy continues to lead the global recovery.
On December 4, at the 18th Global Annual Meeting of the International Finance Forum (IFF), IFF released its first global finance and development report.
The report predicts that the global economy will grow by about 5.9% in 2021, and China will still become the largest contributor to global economic growth with a share of 26.3%.
The trend of continued global economic recovery remains unchanged
IFF is known as the "F20 (Finance 20)" in the global financial field. Its annual global annual meeting attracts attention. It is an important platform for exchanges and prospects of economic policies between China and the world. The theme of this year is "Sustainability under Global Challenges" Development: competition, change, cooperation".
Zhuang Juzhong, chief economist of the IFF and former deputy chief economist of the Asian Development Bank, said that while countries around the world continue to work hard to deal with the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the global economy has experienced a strong rebound in the first half of 2021, mainly due to the scope of vaccination. The expansion of the epidemic, the strengthening of epidemic prevention and control measures, and the continuous fiscal stimulus and monetary easing policies.
He said that although the more contagious "delta" mutant strain has broken out in many parts of the world, the momentum of economic growth will be weakened in the second half of 2021, and the pace of recovery of various countries will still vary, but the trend of continued global economic recovery has not changed. .
The IFF report predicts that the global recovery will continue to advance in 2022, and the fiscal and monetary policies of various countries will continue to support economic recovery-although fiscal sustainability and inflationary pressures are taken into account, support will be reduced.
Under the premise of large-scale promotion of vaccination in various countries and a smooth transition of monetary policies in developed countries, the global economy is expected to grow by 4.7% in 2022, of which developed economies will grow by 4.2%, and developing economies will grow by 5%.
As the gap between supply and demand narrows, global inflation is expected to fall to 3.8% in 2022.
Although the current global economic recovery is gaining momentum, Zhuang Juzhong still has many worries about the future.
He said: "There are still significant downside risks in economic development in the coming year."
The scholar who has studied the world economy for a long time said that if the progress of vaccination is slower than expected, especially in developing countries, or the emergence of new and more infectious mutated strains of the new crown virus, it will cause the global epidemic to intensify and force governments to restart Implement strict control measures to slow down the pace of economic recovery.
At the same time, higher and longer-lasting inflation will cause a sudden shift in the monetary policy of developed countries, leading to substantial adjustments in asset prices and macroeconomic instability. In developing countries, it will also cause capital outflows and currency market fluctuations, thereby disrupting the recovery process. .
In addition, geopolitical tensions, such as trade, technology and other frictions among major powers, will also have a negative impact on the global recovery.
The IFF report believes that the new crown pneumonia epidemic that is currently raging around the world will leave lasting scars on global society and human development.
As low-income families are more vulnerable to the impact of the epidemic, the outbreak of the epidemic has hindered the process of poverty reduction and exacerbated income inequality.
At the same time, the epidemic in many countries has also led to the reduction of education expenditures, the erosion of the human capital of the unemployed, and the delay of green investment.
All these will slow down the global process of achieving the Sustainable Development Goals and make the implementation of the goals of the Paris Agreement more challenging.
"Everyone must seize the investment opportunities that China brings"
"Our world is experiencing various vibrations. In addition to economic vibrations, there are vibrations in other fields." Ali Shahbana, Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Secretary of ESCAP, said that the current economic recovery is very different in different countries. Unbalanced. At the same time, 89 million people in the world will return to extreme poverty due to the impact of factors such as the epidemic.
At present, the world economy is facing various uncertainties.
The recurrence of the new crown pneumonia epidemic has brought new uncertainties to the global economic recovery. The slow progress of vaccination in developing countries has cast a shadow on the economic recovery, and the inflationary pressure faced by major economies has also brought about the direction of their monetary policy. Many variables.
With the in-depth development of economic globalization, the ties between countries today are getting closer. This also means that in the face of many global challenges, the world needs to be based on unity and prioritize cooperation.
Keirat Klimbertov, Chairman of Astana International Financial Center and former Deputy Prime Minister of Kazakhstan, pointed out that the economic structure of each country is different. More developed countries are doing very well now, but they are developing. The country also needs to obtain stable energy to be able to further develop the industry. "We need to solve the problems of each country in this regard, but we must work together on a global level."
Keilat Klimbertov said that before the epidemic, inequality problems existed among countries. These problems have been further intensified due to the epidemic. For example, in terms of the acquisition of vaccines and the acquisition of technology, developed countries and development The needs of Chinese countries are different. Developed countries have advantages, but the financial and monetary support given to emerging markets is not sufficient.
He suggested that under the current crisis situation, the world’s major economies should try to use a circular currency and financial policy to support and help the development of the world economy, and “regional organizations and multilateral banks should play an important role in this process. A greater role".
At the 18th IFF Global Annual Conference, many heads of regional and international organizations talked about how to better play China's role in the recovery of the global economy.
Norov Vladimir Imamovich, Secretary-General of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, gave an example: Due to the continuous deepening of opening up, China's capital market has attracted more and more foreign capital in recent years.
In 2020, a study conducted by the Peterson Institute for International Economics showed that China’s financial services market is estimated to be 47 trillion U.S. dollars. Given this huge volume, if foreign institutions can increase their market share in it, it means With huge profits.
Therefore, "the attraction of China's financial market to foreign companies is huge, and it will only get bigger and bigger."
In 2020, China will be the country with the largest foreign direct investment flow. "Everyone must seize the investment opportunities that China brings."
In addition, Imamovic also mentioned China's "One Belt One Road" initiative.
He said that China hopes to promote the common development of countries along the route, and also hopes to better help different SCO member states to overcome the negative impact of the epidemic and promote economic recovery.
"In this regard, China will continue to share market opportunities. The SCO will continue to promote open economic development, strengthen multilateral mechanisms, and better combat the obstacles and obstacles faced by sustainable development and other prosperity goals. difficulty."
Arroyo, former president of the Philippines and co-chairman of the Silk Road International Alliance, affirmed China's various achievements over the years.
She said that from poverty alleviation to rural revitalization, countries along the “Belt and Road” should learn from China’s experience to establish a long-term vision and determination to advance firmly.
It is hoped that countries along the Belt and Road will strengthen further cooperation in key areas such as the Sanitation and Health Silk Road, the Digital Silk Road, the Green Silk Road, and renewable energy.
The severe test of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on the world continues. Arroyo said that in the era of globalization, the interests of countries and the future are closely linked. "Global threats and global challenges require a strong global response."
China Youth Daily · China Youth Daily reporter Zhang Junbin Source: China Youth Daily
Edition 05 on December 07, 2021