Chinanews Client Beijing, December 7th (Zuo Yukun) On the 6th, the property market ushered in two good news!
The central bank announced a comprehensive RRR cut: it will lower the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points on December 15 (excluding financial institutions that have implemented a 5% deposit reserve ratio). The RRR cut will release a total of about 1.2 trillion long-term funds Yuan.
On the same day, the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting and proposed “to promote the construction of affordable housing, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promote the healthy development and virtuous circle of the real estate industry”.
Data map: real estate.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Bin
Two-way benefits for real estate enterprises and buyers
By the end of the year, behind the constant "price war" of real estate companies, the real estate market has cooled down more and more.
From the second half of the year, the downturn in the real estate market has caused some real estate companies to have cash flow tightness and even default.
"After the RRR cut, when market participants, including real estate, have contact with banks, there is more room for obtaining loans and greater convenience. This also allows real estate companies to relieve the pressure on funds more quickly, which has a positive effect. "Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, said.
"The financing environment of real estate companies is expected to continue to improve marginally, and the reasonable financing needs of real estate companies are met, which will help reduce the debt risk of real estate companies." Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst at Shell Research Institute also believes that for home buyers, the problem of difficult loans may also be It will be alleviated, "With the benefit of lowering the RRR and releasing liquidity, mortgage interest rates have fallen and the rate of lending has accelerated."
“As the loan capacity is enhanced, the pace of launches of real estate companies will also accelerate, which will at least make subsequent housing sales not too pessimistic.” Yan Yuejin believes that, in the first quarter of next year, some projects will combine loose housing loan conditions to sell The pace will accelerate, which will have a positive effect on the activity of the real estate market and the accelerated return of funds from real estate companies.
Data map: A real estate development under construction.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Bin
Conducive to the release of rigid demand and improved housing demand
In addition to the central bank's RRR cut, the statement of the Politburo meeting of the Communist Party of China that "support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promote the healthy development and virtuous circle of the real estate industry" is also considered by the industry that the next loan environment will be more friendly.
"'Supporting the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers' marks the determination of the inflection point of the previous high-pressure and tightening control policies. Combined with the current RRR cut to release liquidity, it will bring benefits to the real estate market." Xu Xiaole believes.
The Shell Research Institute's research shows that under the loan restriction policy, the low total price rigid demand group will be the most affected.
Firstly, it takes longer to obtain loans. Secondly, because of the strict implementation of housing subscription and loan policies in various places, the replacement demand of selling one buying one is regarded as buying multiple sets, which also inhibits the release of demand for improved house swaps.
"If these demands are suppressed for a long time, it will cause the market to shrink rapidly, and there may be concentrated release in the future, which is not conducive to the stable development of the market. It is expected that there will be better policy support for first-time home purchases and improved house swaps in the future." Xu Xiaole said.
"The word'support' has already given a very strong signal. It is more valuable than'encouragement' and is a major benefit for the real estate market." Yan Yuejin also believes that since support is mentioned, it is expected that the follow-up will include land, finance, and house purchase. , Taxes and fees and other policies are supported.
Yan Yuejin also pointed out that in the past, real estate policies were mainly aimed at "stable and healthy development".
The development goal of the "virtuous circle" is proposed for the first time, and it is an important expression of the real estate industry chain. "It shows that the virtuous circle of the real estate market is the key."
Li Yujia, the chief researcher of the Guangdong Provincial Housing Policy Research Center, also believes that this formulation has released two important signals: one is that big ups and downs are not healthy, and smooth operation also includes the stable supply of funds, rather than capital tightening that leads to industry fluctuations; the other is benign The cycle is a virtuous cycle of land supply, development, and sales, which also requires financial support.
Data map: inside a sales office.
Photo by Zhang Yuhuan
Is the window for buying a house here?
In fact, since October, the "living water" flowing to real estate is increasing.
On September 29, the Central Bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly held a real estate finance work symposium to guide major banks to accurately grasp and implement the real estate financial prudential management system, maintain the stable and orderly distribution of real estate credit, and maintain the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.
On December 3, a spokesperson for the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission stated that at this stage, it is necessary to focus on meeting the mortgage needs of first homes and improved housing, reasonably issuing real estate development loans and M&A loans, and increasing support for affordable rental housing based on different local conditions. Promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate industry and market.
As the property market frequently welcomes heavy benefits, especially the relaxation of key credit policies, Xu Xiaole believes that this will consolidate the bottom-of-November recovery situation, which is positive for the real estate market in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year.
At the same time, after the RRR cut, the bank lending environment is relatively loose, and the amount of loans available for loans increases, which may drive down the short- and medium-term mortgage interest rates.
The China Index Research Institute predicts that in the future, the first home mortgage interest rate in some hot areas is still expected to be lowered, and the bank lending cycle is further shortened; at the same time, the previous tight local policies are expected to usher in fine-tuning to promote the healthy development of the real estate industry.
(over)