Chinanews Client Beijing, December 7th (Zuo Yukun) On the 6th, the E-House Real Estate Research Institute released a report showing that the sales of new houses in 40 cities hit the worst in the same period in the past 10 years, and the growth rate of new house transactions has dropped to a historical level. Near the lowest point, and it is expected that it will continue to bottom in the short term.

Data map: Aerial photography of a newly built residence.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Lu Ming

  According to monthly data, in November, the transaction of newly built commercial residential buildings in 40 typical cities monitored by the E-House Research Institute was 20,400,000 square meters, which was the lowest level in November in the past decade.

In terms of growth rate, in November this year, the volume of transactions fell 4.3% month-on-month, and dropped 39.4% year-on-year.

Since June, the year-on-year growth rate of newly-built commercial residential buildings turned negative for the first time this year, and the year-on-year decline has expanded for five consecutive months.

  From the cumulative data, the cumulative transaction area of ​​newly-built commercial residential buildings in 40 cities from January to November increased by 2.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 5.3 percentage points from the previous month.

It is expected that the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the transaction area of ​​newly-built commercial housing in 40 cities and the country will continue to decline at the beginning of the year. Among them, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the transaction area of ​​newly-built commercial housing in 40 cities at the beginning of the year is likely to turn from positive to negative in December.

Image source: E-House Real Estate Research Institute "November 2021 National 40 Cities Newly Built Commercial Housing Transaction Report"

  In terms of tiers, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of newly-built commercial residential transactions in the first, second, third and fourth tier cities from January to November all slowed down, with the growth rates being 23.7%, 4.9%, and -8.3%, respectively, which were down 8.7 and 8.3% respectively from the previous month. 5.1, 4.7 percentage points, it is expected to continue to fall in December.

  Pan Hongyu, a researcher at E-House Real Estate Research Institute, believes that first-tier cities have the highest year-on-year growth rate due to two main reasons: First, the base figure of the same period last year was low. The speed is relatively fastest, but the overall level is also high; second, there are still price limit orders in first-tier cities, and the new house market is still hot.

  The growth rate of third-tier cities turned negative in October, and the year-on-year decline continued to expand in November.

There are also two main reasons: first, the third-tier cities have the smallest surge in February this year, so the overall growth rate is the lowest at present; second, third-tier cities have a large number of developers, which tend to exceed demand, which makes the market worse.

  "The absolute level of transaction growth in second-tier cities is between the first-tier cities and third- and fourth-tier cities. Based on the current rate of decline, it is likely that December will turn negative."

  Based on a comprehensive judgment, the report believes that the transaction volume of new houses in 40 cities in the next three months may continue to bottom out.

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