Chinanews client, Beijing, December 7 (Reporter Li Jinlei) The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 6 to analyze and study economic work in 2022.

The meeting set the tone for how China’s economy will do in 2022. Among them, there are some new formulations that release important signals and are worthy of attention.

Next year's economic work must take the lead and seek progress while maintaining stability

  How to do economic work next year?

The overall tone is very important.

The meeting emphasized that

next year's economic work must take the lead and seek progress while maintaining stability.

  Compared with the previous years of "seek progress in stability", this time there are four more words: "Stability is the head".

What signal does this release?

  Observers believe that more emphasis on stable growth is a realistic requirement under the current downward pressure on my country's economy.

Data map.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Bin

  The "Economic Blue Book: Analysis and Forecast of China's Economic Situation in 2022" released on December 6 pointed out that in 2021, under the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, my country's economy will generally show a good recovery trend, but it is uncertain and unstable. In the epidemic and the external environment, the downward pressure on the economy has increased, and there are more risks and challenges in maintaining the smooth operation of the economy.

It is estimated that China's economy will grow by 8.0% in 2021, and China's economy will grow by about 5.3% in 2022.

  Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the Economic Policy Committee of the Chinese Academy of Policy Sciences, said in an interview with Chinanews.com's "China New Observation" column that the current downward pressure on the world economy is relatively high, and the Chinese economy is also the same. Therefore, to curb the downward trend, more attention must be paid to stability. increase.

In particular, the world economy is expected to slow down next year, and external demand will shrink. This year, the good day of China's foreign trade growth of more than 20% may be difficult to reproduce next year.

Therefore, it is necessary to seek progress while maintaining stability, and strive to achieve high-quality development, so as to calmly cope with the current and future international and domestic challenges.

Fiscal policy pays more attention to precision and sustainability

  The meeting emphasized that the macro policy should be sound and effective, and continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy.

A proactive fiscal policy must improve efficiency and pay more attention to precision and sustainability.

A prudent monetary policy must be flexible and appropriate to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity.

  The proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy have not changed.

However, the fiscal policy clearly "pays more attention to precision and sustainability." From the outside world, this formulation means that the focus has changed.

  Xu Hongcai believes that "precision" means more targeted regulation and "drip irrigation", focusing on key and weak links such as small and micro enterprises, agriculture, rural areas, and people's livelihood; "sustainability" means doing what we can, and not excessive leverage , To prevent too much debt and focus on preventing risks.

Data map: Bank cash counter at work.

Photo by Ai Qinglong

  Feng Xuming, director of the Macro Policy Research Office of the Institute of Quantitative Economics and Technical Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told reporters on the "China New Observation" column of Chinanews.com that under the current downward pressure on the economy, fiscal policy needs to continue to be active and improve efficiency.

On the one hand, it is necessary to continue to maintain an appropriate deficit scale and move the pace of fiscal expenditure forward appropriately; on the other hand, it is necessary to optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure and increase support for the construction of “two new and one heavy”, technological transformation, and green production capacity. Expenditures help the supply side consolidate its capital and cultivate its value, while at the same time expand supply and improve quality in public service fields such as education, culture, sports, elderly care, and medical care.

Promote the healthy development and virtuous circle of the real estate industry

  For next year's real estate, the meeting emphasized the need

to promote the construction of affordable housing, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promote the healthy development and virtuous circle of the real estate industry.

  There are new changes in the central government’s tone for real estate next year. Compared with last year’s “promoting the steady and healthy development of the real estate market”, this time it has added a new goal, namely a virtuous circle.

Data map.

Photo by Chinanews reporter Li Jinlei

  Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of the E-House Research Institute, told reporters from the China News Network "China New Observation" column that this statement is very important and is a signal of clear support for real estate.

It shows that the virtuous circle of the real estate market is critical. A bad market will cause the risk of thunderstorms for real estate companies, and the risks of real estate companies will be passed on to home buyers.

Therefore, the mention of the "virtuous circle" this time is an important expression of the real estate industry chain and has a very strong signal significance.

  Xu Hongcai believes that the real estate adjustment has been relatively large since the beginning of this year. Some companies that have been blindly expanding in the past and have lax financial discipline and self-discipline have stumbled in this adjustment. The real estate market must gradually restore calm and stability to prevent major ups and downs. This is very important. After all, real estate plays an important role in the economy.

  Feng Xuming said that recently real estate investment, sales, land transfer and other indicators have shown signs of slowing down, and the real estate market in fourth- and fifth-tier cities must be carefully managed to stabilize housing prices and expectations to avoid a hard landing.

In particular, it is necessary to avoid excessive price cuts for real estate companies to supplement liquidity under the pressure of the "three red lines", triggering downward pressure on housing prices in some fourth- and fifth-tier cities, and further aggravating the debt risk of the real estate industry.

Realize a virtuous circle of technology, industry, and finance

  In addition to real estate, there is also a virtuous circle that has also received attention.

  The meeting emphasized that the implementation of science and technology policies should be accelerated, continue to focus on key core technologies, strengthen national strategic science and technology forces, strengthen the position of enterprises as the mainstay of innovation, and

realize a virtuous circle of science and technology, industry, and finance.

  Xu Hongcai pointed out that to realize a virtuous circle of science and technology, industry, and finance is to change the fragmented state of the three in the past, forming a trinity and forming a linkage.

It is impossible to emphasize scientific and technological innovation, how to strengthen industrial transformation and upgrading, and how to improve the multi-level financial service system and improve the effectiveness of financial services in finance. However, the three have formed a linkage and a smooth cycle. This is the first time that it has been proposed. .

Data map: A number of leading international chip manufacturing companies showcase their latest equipment and products.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Hengwei

  Chen Daofu, deputy director of the Institute of Finance of the Development Research Center of the State Council, recently stated publicly that China has reached a critical period in which industry, technology, and finance need to be transformed into a virtuous circle. Efficiency, allowing these three to form a virtuous circle, and building a platform to promote circulation may be the key to the future.

  Chen Daofu believes that in order to realize a virtuous circle between technology, industry and finance, it is necessary to "see" and "understand" each other.

Compared with other fields, many outstanding achievements in the three fields of technology, industry, and finance are equivalent to "black boxes".

Therefore, in order for finance to support technological innovation, it must first "see" scientific and technological achievements, "understand" and be able to assess the potential market value of scientific and technological achievements in the future.

At this time, a bridge is needed, that is, a bridge between technology and industry, or between technology and finance, or between industry and finance.

Promote the implementation of the new fertility policy and take effect

  The meeting pointed out that social policies should maintain the bottom line of people's livelihood,

implement the employment priority policy, promote the implementation of the new maternity policy, promote the national overall planning of basic endowment insurance

, and improve the basic public service system provided by permanent residence.

  In Xu Hongcai's view, the meeting specifically mentioned "promoting the implementation of the new fertility policy to be effective", which is a highlight.

The implementation of the new fertility policy is related to the long-term development of the Chinese nation. It is a big problem that the birth rate of our country’s population cannot rise. Therefore, the implementation of the new fertility policy as soon as possible will have a profound impact on the medium and long-term economic and social development.

Data map: The teacher leads the children to play in the classroom.

China News Agency reporter Zhang Yuanshe

  Recently, family planning regulations have been intensively revised in many places across the country to increase maternity benefits and extend maternity leave.

Many provinces have extended maternity leave from the past 30 days to 60 days, and some provinces have extended maternity leave by 60 or even 90 days and increased parental leave.

  As usual, the Central Economic Work Conference will be held soon after the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee.

By then, the context of China's economic work in 2022 will be clearer.

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