<Anchor> This is a
friendly economic time. From today (the 6th), I will be with reporter Han Ji-yeon, who has written many good articles necessary for life. Omicron mutations these days are "shocking." Or "Panic." He said that the omicron mutation is having a very bad effect on the global situation enough to say this, and there is a forecast that it will adversely affect the economic growth rate next year.
Yes. There are a lot of negative prospects, but the fear brought about by the omicron mutation is 'uncertainty'.
Currently, it is difficult to estimate how much impact Omicron will have on the global economy as it is in the early stages of its spread, but there is no doubt that it has emerged as a major variable in domestic and international economic conditions.
First, looking at the forecast provided by the Hyundai Research Institute, if consumer sentiment deteriorates due to the spread of Omicron, another economic shock could occur in the first quarter of next year. I'm watching.
Global investment bank Goldman Sachs also lowered its GDP growth forecast for next year to 3.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous 4.2%, stating that Omicron will slow the US economic growth next year.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also predicted that "global economic growth will slow due to Omicron." However, in October, due to the re-spread of the coronavirus, the economic growth forecast was lowered once.
Especially in emerging and developing countries where vaccination rates are low, three years later. Until 2024, the economy will still not recover to pre-COVID levels. I looked it up like this.
A reporter, but on the other hand, the game will improve a bit. Do you have any hopeful analysis like this?
Yes. This is an analysis made by the Bank of Korea. After considering all the major risks that may arise in the future, the global economy will continue to recover next year. I evaluated it like this.
You can feel the temperature difference from the previous forecasts. He said he evaluated factors such as the coronavirus situation, global supply chain problems, and the pace at which China's economy is slowing, the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
I also mentioned Omicron, which is a problem, and although it has become difficult to predict the development of infectious diseases due to this mutation, development of an edible treatment, booster shots in advanced countries, and rising vaccination rates in emerging countries. is likely to be alleviated.
In addition, it was predicted that the supply bottleneck will be resolved by next year as raw material prices soaring to the ceiling and the logistics crisis have calmed down.
A reporter from
said that companies are also in a difficult situation because of this omicron mutation.
Yes. Originally, the end of the year is a time when companies hire executives and set and set business goals and plans for the next year.
However, in a situation where there is already a lot of internal and external uncertainty, such as a rise in raw material prices or instability in the supply chain, an unexpected variable called omicron variation has occurred, making it difficult to plan a business plan for the new year.
As if when the corona epidemic first occurred, it was not expected that the corona situation would be this long and that it would go into a pandemic.
Because of this uncertainty, companies cannot change their existing plans blindly right now.
Take the Hyundai Motor Group as an example.
Even when the delta mutation spread earlier this year, factories in Southeast Asia, which account for 80% of automotive semiconductor production, were shut down several times.
Due to this production setback, we have reduced our sales forecast and investment plan for this year.
He seems nervous again with the occurrence of this Omicron mutation.
In addition, there is a forecast that the executive reshuffle scheduled for the middle of this month will seek stability rather than drastic changes.
LG Group, which has recently completed its executive reshuffle, is said to be reviewing next year's business plan, which was already reported by its affiliates in October.
The airline industry is also reviewing ways to reduce the number of international flights that were supposed to increase due to Corona.
The travel industry continues to suspend overseas products.Keywords: