China News Service, Guangzhou, December 5 (Sun Qiuxia) At the 18th Global Annual Meeting of the International Finance Forum held on the 4th, Wang Tao, head of the Asian Economic Research Department of UBS, said that China’s financial support will gradually increase in the future and stabilize Growth and macroeconomic stability are the main keynotes, and infrastructure investment will gradually recover. Next year, China's economic growth rate will still exceed 5%.
Wang Tao pointed out that China’s economy has slowed down in recent months. This is mainly due to the tightening of fiscal policies, the prominent effect of epidemic prevention and control on consumption restrictions, the downturn of the real estate industry, and the combination of multiple factors such as energy shortages and power cuts. result.
In Wang Tao's view, the real estate downturn has many factors working together.
On the one hand, in terms of the speed of urbanization, the growth rate of rural migration into cities, the aging of the population, and the housing ownership rate, the growth rate of rigid demand is slowing down.
On the other hand, the "three red lines" that began last year, as well as this year's price restrictions, purchase restrictions, and tightened controls on mortgage loans are also tightening.
How will the future change under the pressure of the economic downturn?
Wang Tao believes that first, the central financial support will continue to increase, and infrastructure investment is expected to rebound; secondly, due to further strengthening of injections and vaccination, domestic epidemic prevention measures have eased, and accumulated consumption is expected to rebound; again, with high consumption In the off-season of energy product production, coupled with the downturn in real estate, power cuts next year will not become a factor restricting growth.
"If real estate begins to decline, then demand for steel, coal, cement, and construction machinery will decline. The first quarter of next year will generally be the off-season for the production of these high-energy-consuming products. Coupled with the decline in real estate, there will be no more power cuts next year. It will become a factor restricting growth." Wang Tao said.
Regarding the future trend of China's real estate market, Wang Tao believes that in the coming months, the government's policies will gradually be adjusted, including certain support for mortgage loans and normal financing required by developers.
In addition, local governments may adjust policies and increase the construction of public rental housing and rental housing.
In addition, Wang Tao pointed out that fiscal policy will continue to increase. In addition to liquidity measures such as RRR cuts, it is very important to adjust credit conditions.
"For example, there are now more restrictions on mortgages, developer loans, financing platform loans and other credit. If the restrictions can be slightly eased, credit growth will bottom out and rebound. Our prediction is that it will bottom out and rebound by the end of this year. There will be a slight rebound next year." (End)