Under the new development pattern, how will China's economy go in the future?

(Economic Observation) Under the new development pattern, how will China's economy go in the future?

　　China News Service, Guangzhou, December 5 (Sun Qiuxia Xia Bin) At present, China is accelerating the construction of a new development pattern in which domestic and international cycles are the mainstay and the domestic and international dual cycles promote each other.

The 18th International Finance Forum (IFF) Global Annual Conference was held in Guangzhou. Participants pointed out that under the new development pattern, stable growth is still the keynote of China's economy, and China will open to the outside world at a deeper level.

　　Huang Qifan, chairman of the IFF Academic Committee and a distinguished professor of Fudan University, pointed out that in the context of internal circulation as the mainstay, China will form a more resilient, more quality, efficient and safer industrial system; China’s economy will shift from being highly dependent on the external circulation international market. Relying more on the internal circulating domestic market and the domestic economic cycle system; shifting from the pursuit of efficient product market circulation to the pursuit of more efficient allocation of factor markets.

　　However, Huang Qifan pointed out that the new development pattern based on internal circulation is not "involved" or "laying flat", but a larger, broader, and deeper opening up to the outside world. It is to form a new pattern of mutual promotion of internal and external circulation. .

　　"China will shift from importing foreign capital mainly to attracting foreign investment and foreign investment. Secondly, it will shift from expanding exports to encouraging both exports and increasing imports. The third will shift from opening up coastal areas to The coastal, border and inland areas have been opened in coordination, as a whole, and opened simultaneously in the east, middle and west." Huang Qifan said.

　　Tang Min, Counselor of the State Council of China, pointed out that in advancing the new development pattern, in addition to making full use of cross-border e-commerce and new retail models to further open up the international market, the industrial chain and supply chain of production and daily necessities should also be transferred to underdeveloped areas in the west. Pay attention to the large market of 1 billion low- and middle-income people.

　　If you want to develop, you can't lose safety. Coordinating the two is a realistic requirement for China's economic operation.

Under the new development pattern, how to coordinate with the new security pattern?

　　Yu Lan, deputy editor-in-chief of China News Agency and president of China News Network, pointed out that from a cyclical perspective, China’s economy is facing new downward pressure, and risks and security issues have become prominent, but the key is to prevent major risks and not affect development due to the pursuit of absolute security. , Because security without development is meaningless security; from a structural perspective, the superposition of development shortcomings and risk points needs to be focused; from a system perspective, within the boundaries of security, we must actively promote domestic and international dual cycles , To give full play to the ballast stone role of economy and trade.

　　Yu Lan believes that in the future, China’s macroeconomic policies will maintain the two-wheel drive of cross-cyclical design and counter-cyclical adjustment. Stable growth, structural adjustment, promotion of upgrades and prevention of risks will still be the main keynotes, and the importance of stable growth will be further enhanced. .

　　Chen Xingdong, China's chief economist at BNP Paribas, also predicts that a major keynote of China's economy next year is to stabilize and maintain growth.

　　According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, in the first, second, and third quarters of this year, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew at 18.3%, 7.9%, and 4.9% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rates were 5.0%, 5.5%, and 5.0% respectively. 4.9%.

　　According to Chen Xingdong, there are many reasons for the current state of China’s economic growth. For example, due to repeated epidemics, China has adopted policies such as “prevention of foreign imports and non-proliferation of the country”, which has imposed demand on China’s economic consumption, especially in the service industry. The impact of growth is huge.

He believes that next year, China needs to increase its policies to restart China's growth momentum.

　　Wang Tao, head of the UBS Asian Economic Research Department, said that under the downward pressure on the Chinese economy, first, the central financial support will continue to increase, and infrastructure investment is expected to rebound; secondly, due to the further enhancement of vaccine injection and vaccination, domestic anti-epidemic measures are Alleviated, accumulated consumption is expected to rebound.

　　When it comes to China’s economic trends, the topic of Sino-U.S. relations and Sino-U.S. cooperation cannot be avoided. Zheng Zhijie, the former president of China Development Bank, believes that the largest infrastructure expansion and modernization plan currently underway in the United States is expected to provide a boost for Sino-U.S. cooperation. Come the opportunity.

The China-U.S. infrastructure cooperation is at the right time and is conducive to promoting global economic stability and prosperity.

At the same time, China-U.S. infrastructure cooperation is conducive to achieving complementary advantages, mutual benefit and win-win results, and conforms to the common interests of the two countries.

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