China News Service, Beijing, December 5th. The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released data on the 5th, showing that China's bulk commodity index in November 2021 was 99.2%, a decline for two consecutive months.
Entering December, the decline in demand in the off-season will continue. At present, the domestic macroeconomic operation is stabilizing and the short-term market sentiment is optimistic, but the downward pressure on the domestic manufacturing industry still cannot be ignored.
In November 2021, China's Commodity Index was 99.2%, falling for two consecutive months, falling to the lowest level since February 2020, and the market continued to bottom out.
Among the sub-indices, the supply index fell to its lowest level in 21 months for five consecutive years, the sales index fell to its lowest level since September for two consecutive years, and the inventory index rebounded to its highest level in nearly three months.
Judging from the changes in the index this month, as the weather turns cold, environmental protection production restrictions are fully promoted, and the epidemic repeats, it will affect both supply and demand. In particular, the coming of the off-season has made the market demand more obvious. The market has just been established in the early stage. The tight balance between supply and demand was broken, signs of oversupply in the market appeared, and commodity inventories began to build up.
From the perspective of the current driving factors of the bulk commodity market, the market is facing a long-short game. The influencing factors include the stable domestic economic operation, short-term supply decline, slow inventory recovery, and with the deepening of the low season of consumption, the decline in real estate and stagflation in the mid-term Under the background of the slowdown in demand, coupled with the peaking of liquidity and the squeezing out of financial premiums brought about by the upward movement of the US dollar, overall, downside risks in the later market are continuing to accumulate, and the center of gravity of commodity prices is expected to further fall.
According to the analysis, judging from the changes in the data this month, the current domestic commodity market supply and demand are out of balance, commodity inventories have begun to accumulate, and market downside risks have begun to accumulate.
In December, as the temperature continues to drop and construction site shutdowns increase during the heating season, it is expected that the domestic bulk commodity market will further shrink in the later period, and commodity prices will further weaken.
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