China News Service, Beijing, December 5th (Liu Wenwen) In response to the new crown epidemic, large-scale fiscal stimulus has led to a continuous increase in global debt. The ultra-loose monetary policies and zero interest rates in developed countries have also caused inflation to rise, and it is rapidly spreading across the world. Spread within.

Under this circumstance, how should different economies face risks and meet challenges?

  The 18th International Finance Forum (IFF) continued to be held on the 5th. Chief economists at the meeting conducted in-depth discussions on the impact and response of global inflation, debt and economic risks.

  Gita Gopinat, chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said that the current downturn risk of the world economy is very obvious.

The global recovery in 2021 will continue, but it will encounter more and more contrarian trends and there will be obvious faults.

On the one hand, some countries have recovered fairly quickly; on the other hand, some countries are facing the risk of high inflation.

  Taking the United States as an example, Geeta pointed out that US inflation rose further in October. In the United States, inflation is no longer limited to certain areas, but a very widespread phenomenon.

But the US economic recovery is very strong, basically close to the level before the epidemic.

She expects that US inflation will slowly decline in the next few years.

  Peng Wensheng, chief economist of China International Capital Corporation, said that the latest data show that the US broad money M2 has increased by more than 10%, which is much higher than normal growth. This is caused by fiscal stimulus policies and the Federal Reserve’s Treasury Bond Purchase Program. .

  Peng Wensheng said bluntly, "In my opinion, inflation in the United States is expected to remain at a high level until 2023. This is a great challenge for the United States and the global economy."

  In contrast, Eric Boglov, chief economist of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, is concerned about inflation in emerging economies.

"The situation in developed countries does have an important impact on the entire world, but many times people do not realize that the current growth rate of the emerging world is expected to be lower than the economic growth rate of developed countries. This is the first time this has happened in many years. And the emerging world may not be able to return to the level of growth before the epidemic in the near future."

  This coincides with Gita's view.

"The rate of economic recovery varies greatly from place to place. The U.S. economic recovery is very strong. From a medium to long-term perspective, U.S. inflation will not cause much problem. But for many emerging economies, it will take a long time to struggle. Some countries’ GDP It hasn't fully recovered yet, but inflation has exceeded expectations," she said.

  Gita further pointed out that each country is different in terms of national conditions and inflation. This means that monetary policy must be formulated in accordance with the specific conditions of each country, while ensuring the credibility of the monetary policy and fiscal policy framework.

  She reminded that the current recovery situation is not particularly stable, and a relatively loose fiscal policy must be maintained.

In addition, central banks of various countries also need to maintain communication on policies to prevent market panic.

  What is the impact of global inflation on China?

  Chen Xingdong, chief economist of China at BNP Paribas, pointed out that as Fed Chairman Powell changed his view on the "temporary nature of inflation", some people began to expect that the time for the Fed's quantitative easing contraction might be shortened, and the time for raising interest rates might go ahead. This puts a certain amount of external pressure on China’s monetary policy adjustment, but this should not become a resistance.

  "The People's Bank of China has always emphasized the need to provide sufficient liquidity to the market. The key is how to understand the ample liquidity. If loan conditions become tighter, economic vitality will inevitably decline, and the total scale of social financing will definitely decline. Therefore, it is necessary to Adjustment." Chen Xingdong said.

  In Chen Xingdong's view, it is necessary for China's economy to regain stable growth next year, maintain growth, restore China's economic growth momentum, and provide a good economic environment.

  In terms of macro policy control, he reminded that after the policy is released, it must be evaluated. Sometimes every single policy is correct, but when combined, it puts pressure on economic growth.

In addition, in the process of policy implementation, it is necessary to strengthen communication with the market.

(over)

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