China News Service, Guangzhou, December 4 (Reporter Wang Enbo) The "International Financial Forum 2021 Global Finance and Development Report" was released on the 4th during the 18th Global Annual Conference of the International Financial Forum in Guangzhou.
The report predicts that the scale of the global economy should be able to return to the level before the 2019 new crown pneumonia epidemic by the end of 2021, and China will still become the largest contributor to global economic growth.
According to the report, although the momentum has eased, the global economy continues to recover.
The currently widely accepted market expectation is that the global economy will grow by approximately 5.9% in 2021.
Developed economies will grow by 5.2%, contributing 37% to global growth; developing economies will grow by 6.4%, contributing 63%.
From the perspective of countries, China will still become the largest contributor to global economic growth with a share of 26.3%, followed by the United States and India with 16.7% and 11% respectively.
The report predicts that by 2022, the global recovery will continue.
Fiscal and monetary policies will continue to support the economic recovery-although considering fiscal sustainability and inflationary pressures, support will be reduced.
With the weakening of the base effect, the global economy is expected to grow by 4.7% in 2022, with developed economies growing by 4.2% and developing economies by 5%.
At the same time, as supply chain bottlenecks have been eased, commodity prices have stabilized, and fiscal and monetary stimulus has weakened, global inflation expectations in 2020 will gradually fall to 3.8%-advanced economies will fall from 2.7% to 2.2%. Developing economies will fall from 5.5% to 4.9%.
The report also reminds that there are downside risks in the aforementioned outlook.
Among them, the biggest risk is the large-scale comeback of the new crown pneumonia epidemic caused by the slow progress of vaccination or the emergence of new mutant strains of the new crown virus.
In addition, the instability of the macroeconomic and financial system may also hinder economic recovery.
Higher and longer-lasting inflation may cause a sudden adjustment of their monetary policies in advanced economies, leading to a sharp correction in asset prices, capital outflows from emerging markets, and exchange rate fluctuations.
The report recommends that in order to end the new crown pneumonia epidemic as soon as possible, reduce the risk of global recovery, and enhance the inclusiveness and sustainability of development, countries need to prioritize the following policy options through multilateral efforts: accelerate the advancement of vaccination and eliminate the vaccine gap; ensure that A smooth transition of monetary policy; ending trade tensions; promoting a green recovery; strengthening support for low-income countries.