Vegetable prices this winter will return to a reasonable range
Our reporter Huang Junyi
Recently, the temperature in many places has fluctuated sharply, and the price of vegetables has risen rapidly.
What is the supply and price situation of the national vegetable market this winter?
In this regard, a reporter from the Economic Daily conducted an interview.
"The price of vegetables has risen since late October, mainly due to bad weather and transportation. Recently, the price of vegetables has begun to fall." said Zhang Jing, chief analyst of the vegetable market analysis and early warning team of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.
Monitoring data from the "Domestic and foreign agricultural product market dynamics" weekly report of the Department of Market and Information Technology of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed that from November 22 to November 28, the weekly average price of 28 kinds of vegetables under monitoring was 5.67 yuan per kilogram, down 1.9% from the previous month. , An increase of 27.7% year-on-year.
Zhang Jing told reporters that the average weekly price of vegetables has fallen for two consecutive weeks, mainly due to the gradual recovery of vegetable supply.
As winter vegetables in Central China, Southwest and East China have been concentrated on the market, the supply capacity of "Southern Vegetables Transported to the North" has increased. In addition, the weather in most major northern winter vegetable production areas has been fine recently, and the impact of strong cold air is limited, and the amount of installed vegetables on the market has gradually increased. In November, the listing of 28 kinds of vegetables in major national wholesale markets increased by 2.2% year-on-year.
At present, roads across the country are basically unblocked, the impact of the transportation link on the supply of vegetables on the market has dropped significantly, and prices have begun to loosen up and fall.
On November 29, the wholesale price 200 index of the “vegetable basket” products of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 132.31, a decrease of 1.9% from 134.87 on November 11.
Recently, vegetable prices in Beijing's Xinfadi Agricultural Products Wholesale Market have also gradually declined.
On November 26, the weighted average price of vegetables at the Xinfadi market in Beijing was 3.70 yuan/kg, a drop of 2.37% from the previous week.
There are three sources of vegetables sold in the Beijing market in winter: one is winter storage vegetables, the other is northern facility vegetables, and the third is southern vegetables.
At present, the prices of winter storage vegetables have basically remained stable, and the supply of vegetables in northern facilities began to decline late last week.
"The primary reason for the fall in vegetable prices is that the southern winter vegetables have begun to be sold in large quantities." said Liu Tong, manager of the statistics department of Beijing Xinfadi Agricultural Products Wholesale Market. .
"The excessively high prices of some vegetables have also restrained demand, leading to a loosening of prices in production areas and market prices," Liu Tong said.
Recently, the wholesale market for agricultural products in Xinfadi in Beijing has even experienced price inversions-the market sales prices of celery, cauliflower, beans, cabbage, cucumbers, and leeks have remained the same as the loading prices at the origin, and the price of beans was once lower than the origin price.
"The price of beans has dropped across the board, mainly because the vehicles that were stranded on the road in the early stage concentrated on entering the market, while the subsequent vehicles are still pouring into the market, resulting in short-term oversupply, and merchants are forced to reduce prices and promote sales, which depresses the market. Price." Liu Tong said.
Not long ago, the National Bureau of Statistics released the national CPI (Consumer Price Index) for October this year. The CPI rose from the same level last month to a month-on-month increase of 0.7%.
Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician in the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in October, the price of fresh vegetables rose by 16.6%, which affected the CPI increase by about 0.34 percentage points, accounting for nearly 50% of the total increase.
So, will vegetable prices continue to drive up the CPI this winter?
Zhang Jing said that from a long-term perspective, vegetable prices show a volatile upward trend, and the increase rate is higher than the CPI increase.
Affected by the continuous increase in costs, the average wholesale price of 28 vegetables monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has grown at an average annual rate of 3.4% in the past five years.
In the last 36 months, the CPI has increased within 1.5% year-on-year, while the fresh vegetable price index has fluctuated from -4% to 15.9% year-on-year.
From historical data, fresh vegetable prices fluctuate frequently, but the overall CPI operation is relatively stable.
It is estimated that fresh vegetables account for only 2.1% of the CPI weight, which has a limited impact on CPI.
"The increase in vegetable prices has a significant impact on the month-on-month increase in CPI in October, which is an abnormal phenomenon in some special periods." Zhang Jing said.
This anomaly stems from an abnormal jump in vegetable prices caused by extreme weather.
This fall has significantly more rainfall than normal, especially after the end of September, when the north has continuous rainfall over a large area, and the temperature has dropped rapidly.
Affected by large-scale and long-term continuous rainfall, vegetable fields have been flooded in many northern vegetable production areas such as Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi, and Shaanxi. Vegetable harvesting is difficult, and purchase costs have increased significantly.
The market volume of fresh and tender vegetables dropped significantly in October, the average price of some varieties rose sharply in October, and the overall vegetable price also showed a jump.
Whether vegetable prices will continue to significantly drive CPI this winter depends on whether there will be extreme weather in the future.
Zhang Jing said that in November, most of the north experienced several rounds of strong cold air, and vegetable prices rebounded once again.
On the one hand, there are some production areas with heavy snowfall and obvious temperature drops, rising facility insulation costs, hindering vegetable harvesting, slowing the growth of vegetables in the field, and short-term increase in field purchase prices; on the other hand, heavy snowfall has caused some highway sections to be closed. There are many vehicles on the way, which affects the terminal supply of some fresh and tender vegetables, leading to continued price adjustments at a high level in the short term.
Regarding the supply of winter vegetables, Zhang Jing believes that it will gradually turn to looser.
Considering that vegetable prices are generally high this year and growers have strong intentions to expand their crops, the country’s current vegetable area in the country is 103 million mu, an increase of 4 million mu compared to the same period last year. It is expected that the vegetable supply will reach 200 million tons in three months, an increase of 700. Million tons.
From a regional perspective, the vegetable area in the 13 provinces of the "Southern Vegetables Transported to the North" base and the main production areas of northern facilities reached 91.3 million mu, an increase of 3.5 million mu compared to the same period last year. As these areas enter the peak season for vegetable harvesting, they will effectively increase And guarantee the supply of vegetables in the market.
In terms of varieties, the national fast-growing leafy vegetables expanded by more than 3 million mu in October, and the number of marketed vegetables will increase later, which is conducive to adjusting the surplus. The area of cucumbers, eggplants and other eggplants and root vegetables such as radishes and onions has also expanded.
As the weather continues to improve in various places, the increase in vegetable prices has narrowed in November.
It is expected that after December, winter greenhouse vegetables and "Southern vegetables" will enter the stage of centralized listing. The tight supply pattern of some vegetable varieties will be effectively alleviated, and vegetable prices will gradually return to a reasonable fluctuation range.
Liu Tong believes that the short period of difficult vegetable supply has passed, and the current situation is gradually improving, and a slow downward trend in vegetable prices has begun to take shape.
The supply capacity will be further enhanced in the later period, and the downward channel for the overall price of vegetables has been opened.
"Although the increase in vegetable prices has a significant impact on the month-on-month increase in CPI in October, the overall impact will be limited in the future." Zhang Jing said.
Our reporter Huang Junyi