The overall level of China's economic prosperity has rebounded (Rui Finance)

  On November 30, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in November this year, the manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI) was 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 52.3%, slightly less than the previous month. Decrease by 0.1 percentage point; the comprehensive PMI output index was 52.2%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month. The three major indexes are all in the expansion range, indicating that the overall economic prosperity of China has rebounded.

Manufacturing PMI has rebounded significantly

  In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, which was above the critical point, and the manufacturing industry returned to the expansion range.

  "Recently introduced a series of policy measures such as strengthening energy supply guarantees and stabilizing market prices have shown results. In November, the shortage of power supply has eased, some raw material prices have dropped significantly, and the manufacturing PMI has returned to the expansion range, indicating that the manufacturing industry's production and operation activities It has accelerated, and the level of prosperity has improved." said Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics.

  From the perspective of enterprise scale, the prosperity of small and medium-sized enterprises has improved.

The PMI of large enterprises was 50.2%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and continued to be higher than the threshold; the PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 51.2%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points from the previous month, which was higher than the threshold; the PMI of small enterprises was 48.5%, which was higher than the threshold. It rose by 1 percentage point last month, which was below the threshold.

  From the perspective of sub-indices, among the five sub-indices that make up the manufacturing PMI, the production index is above the critical point, and the new order index, raw material inventory index, employee index, and supplier delivery time index are all below the critical point.

Among them, the production index was 52%, an increase of 3.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that manufacturing production activities have accelerated.

The new order index was 49.4%, an increase of 0.6 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the manufacturing market demand has improved.

The raw material inventory index was 47.7%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the decline in the inventory of major raw materials in the manufacturing industry has narrowed.

The employment index was 48.9%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in the employment boom of manufacturing enterprises.

The supplier delivery time index was 48.2%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the threshold, indicating that the delivery time of manufacturing raw material suppliers has been extended.

The manufacturing boom has expanded

  From the perspective of industry conditions, among the 21 industries surveyed, 12 were above the critical point, an increase of 3 from the previous month, and the manufacturing boom has expanded.

  Both supply and demand have rebounded.

Zhao Qinghe said that the recent power supply capacity has continued to improve, and the release of manufacturing capacity has accelerated.

Among them, the production index of papermaking and printing, railway, ship, aerospace equipment, electrical machinery and equipment is higher than 56%, and the production activities of the industry have accelerated significantly.

The new order index was 49.4%, an increase of 0.6 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the demand side of the manufacturing industry has improved compared with the previous month.

  The price index fell sharply.

The purchase price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials were 52.9% and 48.9% respectively, which were significantly lower than last month. The ex-factory price index fell below the critical point, indicating that the recent implementation of policies such as ensuring supply and stabilizing prices has been increasing, and prices are fast. The upward momentum was curbed.

From the perspective of the industry, the above two price indexes of the chemical raw materials and chemical products, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries have all dropped significantly, falling below the critical point, indicating the purchase of some basic raw material production industries Prices and product sales prices have dropped significantly.

  The import and export index continued to rise.

Affected by factors such as the continued recovery of the world economy and the approach of the Christmas consumption season abroad, foreign trade prosperity continued to improve last month. The new export order index and import index were 48.5% and 48.1%, respectively, up 1.9 and 0.6 percentage points from the previous month.

Non-manufacturing stable recovery

  In November, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 52.3%, which continued to be higher than the threshold, and the non-manufacturing industry remained stable and recovered.

  Expansion of the construction industry accelerated.

The construction industry business activity index and new order index were 59.1% and 54.2%, respectively, up 2.2 and 1.9 percentage points from the previous month. The construction industry's production and market demand both accelerated the expansion.

  The overall recovery of the service industry has slowed down.

According to Zhao Qinghe's analysis, this round of multiple epidemics spread to more regions, and some industries were greatly affected. The business activity index of the service industry was 51.1%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month.

From the perspective of the industry, the business activity index of the producer service industry, which is closely related to manufacturing activities, is located in the high boom range of more than 55%. Among them, the total business volume of information services, financial services, business services and other industries has increased rapidly; and contact consumption The closely related business activity index of the life service industry fell below the critical point.

In terms of market expectations, the business activity expectations index is 58.2%, which continues to be in a relatively high business range, indicating that most companies have generally stable confidence in the recent service industry market recovery.

  The comprehensive PMI output index continued to expand.

In November, the comprehensive PMI output index was 52.2%, indicating that the overall expansion of the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises has accelerated.

Among them, the manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index, which constitute the comprehensive PMI output index, are 52% and 52.3%, respectively.

  Xu Peiyu

Keywords: