Sino-Singapore Jingwei, December 1st (Wu Xiaowei) On the last night of November, there was news that "the average ex-factory price of the eighth generation Wuliangye increased to 969 yuan, an increase of nearly 9%." According to the dealer, the new price increase The policy is expected to be officially announced at the Wuliangye distributor conference on December 18 this year.
Why is the price of the eight-generation general five increase?
"V View Financial Report" (WeChat ID: VG-View) received news. The specific details are "The planned price of contracted dealers remains unchanged, and the unplanned price is increased to 1089 yuan, an increase of 90 yuan/bottle, and the ratio of inside and outside the plan is 3: 2. The unplanned proportion has increased from about 30% to 40%. It is expected that dealers will finally determine that the comprehensive payment cost will be 969 yuan per bottle."
This year is the third year of the launch of the eighth generation Wuliangye.
In 2019, the product was officially launched, and the ex-factory price was set at around 889 yuan.
Talking about the price increase of Wuliangye, Baijiu analyst Cai Xuefei analyzed the "V View Financial Report" and said that firstly, Wuliangye will raise prices at the end of the peak sales season for the branded Moutai liquor products; secondly, the current leading brand of Chinese liquor will have the potential As Wuliangye is a leading wine company, the brand value needs to be increased through price increases.
Zhongtai Securities believes that under the unboxing policy of Moutai in the first half of the year, box mao is very scarce and the price is high, making consumers' high-end gift-giving demand flow into Classic Wuliangye, helping Classic Wuliangye to gain a foothold, and consumers also recognize the product's brand value.
At present, the channel has reported that the annual sales volume of Classic Wuliangye is about 2,000 tons, and the approval price has risen to around 2,000 yuan under the manufacturer's cost control strategy, and the sales are benign.
The fluctuation of the previous approval price was mainly caused by the supply side disturbance. Based on the current inventory has been basically digested, this year's sales volume is considerable, it is estimated that 950 yuan has been the bottom of the approval price.
The performance of the classic Wuliangye proves that Wuliangye's brand power is ahead of other brands except Moutai. As manufacturers' ex-factory prices move upward, there is still room for substantial increase in the prices of general five batches in the future.
Shen Meng, executive director of Xiangsong Capital, told the "V View Financial Report" that Wuliangye's price increase was due to the increase in upstream raw materials and production costs in the industry, but from the perspective of operating costs in Wuliangye's financial report, there is enough room for profit to temporarily absorb the cost. Fluctuations, price increases are not necessary.
The price increase of Wuliangye may drive the entire liquor industry into a price increase cycle.
Earlier, at the forum of the top 50 industrial enterprises in Sichuan Province, the relevant person in charge of Yibin Wuliangye Group Co., Ltd. had stated that he would strive to exceed 140 billion yuan in annual sales revenue.
Judging from the financial report, Wuliangye achieved operating income of 49.721 billion yuan in the first three quarters.
Among them, the operating income in the third quarter was 12.969 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.61%; the net profit attributable to the parent was 4.127 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.84%.
In this regard, Essence Securities believes that Wuliangye's third-quarter income rhythm adjustment has caused the growth rate to be lower than expected.
Does Moutai follow?
It is worth noting that Wuliangye's price increase has triggered the market's imagination of Maotai's price increase.
Ding Xiongjun, chairman of Kweichow Moutai, has publicly stated that he will follow market rules to do a good job in the pricing of Moutai.
"I think the price increase of Wuliangye will push the price of Moutai." Xiao Zhuqing, an expert in the liquor industry, further pointed out that if the price increase of Wuliangye drives the price of Moutai, Maotai above 2,000 yuan, Guojiao 1573 above 1,000 yuan, and Wuliangye form new high-end liquors. Ranks.
Xiao Zhuqing said that the ex-factory price of Moutai is now 969 yuan, and the terminal market price is around 3,000 yuan. The huge channel profit margin makes the scalpers happy to speculate.
He believes that increasing the ex-factory price of Moutai can also reduce the spread of Moutai's channel spreads, crack down on the scalpers' enthusiasm to speculate Moutai, and really benefit those consumers who just need Moutai.
Cai Xuefei believes that Moutai may not directly increase prices, but it will increase the proportion of direct sales, expand the scope of online sales, implement price increases in disguise, and increase the profit margin of the entire product to achieve the goal of improving overall performance.
Zhongtai Securities previously issued a research report and mentioned that channel feedback dealers have received about 180 boxes of 53-degree flying Maotai from the winery, which is expected to total about 750 tons.
This increase is a one-time incremental plan. The quota varies according to different distributors. The national supply is about 750 tons. It is not clear what the sales requirements of this batch of goods are.
At present, the batch price of Sanfei has dropped to 2570-2590, and the original box price has remained stable.
On the one hand, the increase in allocation has enhanced the company's performance, and on the other hand, it is also an attempt to raise prices.
Second and third line famous wine welcomes good
For second- and third-tier wines, the price increase of Wuliangye also brings benefits.
"Wuliangye is the top famous wine. The price increase of his leading products will inevitably leave price opportunities for other second and third-tier famous wines. During the Spring Festival sales season, it may stimulate other famous wines to increase prices." Cai Xuefei said.
Looking back on November, many wine companies have adopted the means of raising prices and controlling goods to adjust product prices.
The ticket price of Jiannanchun will be increased by 20 yuan per bottle; Jingzhi’s high-end division 4 series and 14 series products of the public division will increase in price; the retail price of Shuijingfang Collection Master Edition 52% 500ml will increase by 200 yuan/bottle, and the retail price of 38% 500ml will be increased. An increase of 100 yuan/bottle.
In addition, Guotai 15 years, Guotai Longjiu, Hengchang Shaofang Classics have taken measures to stop the goods.
How to see the market outlook for liquor stocks
From the perspective of the secondary market, on November 30, northbound funds sold a net 3.411 billion yuan, liquor stocks continued to be sold, Kweichow Moutai net sold 936 million yuan, and Wuliangye net sold 558 million yuan.
Kaiyuan Securities stated that there is still a good start to the Chinese New Year liquor in 2022, mainly considering that the current overall inventory of liquor is not high, and the structural upgrade continues, the industry is still concentrated in leading enterprises, and both high-end and sub-high-end liquor will benefit.
Zhongtai Securities believes that, based on channel survey feedback, leaders in subdivisions such as condiments, yeast, and liquor are expected to increase product prices to ease the company's performance pressure, reflecting that the competitive landscape is better than previous market expectations.
Taking into account the low base this year and the relatively adequate destocking of industries, growth is expected to accelerate next year.
At the opening on December 1, liquor stocks generally rose. Among them, Wuliangye rose more than 2% to lead the gains, and Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Gujing Gongjiu followed the rise.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
(The opinions in the article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)