Coal inventories have increased significantly, and natural gas has accelerated its reserves and production
Stabilize energy supply and guarantee energy demand (Industry Economics Observation·Ensure the Safety of Industrial Chain Supply Chain ②)
Our reporter Ran Yongping and Ding Yiting
"People's Daily" (18th edition on December 01, 2021)
Gale, cooling, blizzard!
In late November, the third round of cold wave this winter visited many places across the country.
Huaneng Jiutai Power Plant, located in Changchun City, Jilin Province, is busy arranging coal unloading and reburning, and is doing its best to ensure the heating needs of 9 million square meters and 560,000 residents in Jiutai District, Changchun.
"The daily coal consumption is about 10,000 tons, which is much less than the previous two months. The number of days available for inventory has increased from 7 days at the most stressful time to more than 15 days." Deputy Plant Director Gu Yuehua said.
Energy security is related to development security and national security.
With the arrival of winter, frequent cold air activities and strong forces, coupled with limited hydropower output during the dry season, is there a guarantee for the energy demand of the whole society?
The reporter conducted an interview on the current progress of energy supply guarantee.
Energy supply guarantee has achieved staged results
On November 24, the power plant’s coal storage reached 149 million tons, an increase of more than 40 million tons from the end of October
“In the past, we only needed to connect the eastern part of Inner Mongolia with coal. When the supply was most tight in September and October this year, we traveled to Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and other places. Load some coal." Gu Yuehua told reporters that when coal supply was most tight in September, the daily increase of 5000 kcal thermal coal reached 100 yuan/ton, and the unit price of integrated purchase of standard coal by power plants was close to 1,600 yuan/ton, and the loss of electricity generated by one kilowatt-hour was more than 20 cents. .
According to data from the China Electricity Council, in the first three quarters of this year, the average unit price of standard coal delivered to the plant by the five largest power generation groups rose by 39.1% year-on-year.
In order to ensure a solid energy supply, relevant departments have adopted a series of measures such as accelerating the release of high-quality coal mine production capacity, advancing the increase in natural gas reserves and production, and deepening the reform of coal-fired power generation on-grid tariff marketization, to promote relevant work to achieve initial results.
Since October, the contradiction between market supply and demand has tended to ease.
Coal storage in power plants is rapidly increasing.
Since November, the average daily coal supply of power plants nationwide has reached 8.1 million tons, an increase of more than 30% over the same period last year.
On November 24, the power plant’s coal storage reached 149 million tons, an increase of more than 40 million tons from the end of October, and it can be used for 24 days.
"Since mid-October, the workshop has shipped more than 11 10,000-ton coal trains every day. Especially after November, the minimum daily loading volume is more than 1,200 cars, and the highest is more than 1,700 cars a day." China Railway Hohhot Bureau Baotou Said Liang Jian, deputy director of the Daniudi workshop of the freight center.
"In the fourth quarter, Huaneng Yimin Coal Mine added 200,000 tons of new contract volume and Shaanxi Coal Group's 50,000 tons of coal..." Gu Yuehua told reporters that under the coordination of relevant departments, Jiutai Power Plant had a new coal source.
It is understood that the coal sources of power generation and heating enterprises nationwide have been fully implemented, and the signing rate of medium and long-term contracts has basically achieved full coverage.
Increase reserves and production of natural gas.
PetroChina’s Changqing Oilfield’s daily gas production volume climbed to 130 million cubic meters. CNOOC accelerated the expansion of 3 LNG receiving stations in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Zhuhai. The largest gas storage in central and eastern my country, “Wen 23” gas storage, exceeded the annual limit. The task of gas injection and the effective working gas volume reached 2.77 billion cubic meters...The natural gas industry companies are actively ensuring the supply. Since November, the daily natural gas supply throughout the country has reached more than 1 billion cubic meters, an increase of 11%.
From the perspective of reserves, the country can form more than 27 billion cubic meters of gas storage during the heating season. At present, major underground gas storages have begun to produce gas one after another, playing a role in peak shaving and supply in winter.
The order of electricity consumption remains stable.
As of November 6, the scale of orderly electricity consumption in the operation area of the State Grid is close to zero, except for individual provinces and local time periods for high-energy-consuming and high-polluting enterprises.
On November 4th, China Southern Power Grid did not implement orderly electricity consumption across the entire grid, which was the first time since May 10th.
The reasons for the imbalance of energy supply and demand are complex
The release of some coal production capacity in the early stage was affected, and the demand for thermal power increased rapidly
Since September, domestic coal prices have continued to rise and hit new highs repeatedly.
Why is coal supply and demand suddenly tense?
According to Shi Ying, the vice chairman of the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association, this is actually a cumulative process.
In terms of demand, my country's economy has continued to recover steadily this year, and electricity demand has grown rapidly.
Unfortunately, this year's water and electricity supply is relatively dry and the output is obviously insufficient. Thermal power has assumed more protection functions, which in turn stimulated the growth of coal consumption.
Data show that as of the end of October, hydropower generation in that month had a negative growth for five consecutive months.
In the first 10 months of this year, the thermal power generation of power plants above designated size across the country increased by 11.3% year-on-year, and thermal power units accounted for more than 70% of the power generation with less than 60% of the installed capacity.
In contrast, the growth rate of raw coal production in the first 10 months was only 4%.
"-0.2%, -1.8%, 0.6%, -5%, -3.3%, 0.8%, -0.9%, 4%", this is the growth rate of raw coal production in each month since March this year.
Except for October, other months have either negative growth or weak positive growth.
According to industry analysts, there are many reasons behind this: increased safety and environmental protection supervision has prevented some coal mines from over-capacity production in the past; individual localities have been campaigning to reduce carbon emissions, and some coal development and construction and production capacity release have been restricted. ; Some financial institutions have restricted and drawn out loans to coal companies since the beginning of this year. It is difficult for the coal industry to raise funds and it is difficult to effectively release part of its production capacity.
In the past, from mid-to-late September to October each year, the peak summer of the energy industry basically ended, and the peak of winter power consumption has not yet arrived.
Why is coal supply tight during this period of this year?
"September and October are the period of winter guaranteeing supply and storage. In the early stage, coal supply exceeded demand. Traders, ports, power plants and other links were all "eating" inventory. By September, coal storage in power plants had reached the lowest level in the same period in history. All parties are very anxious and joined the ranks of'grabbing coal', making the supply and demand situation even more tense, and prices will rise accordingly." Shi Ying also added that this round of coal price increase has also led to a significant increase in imported inflationary pressure under the situation of international monetary easing. The big factor.
Indeed, not only domestically, but international oil, natural gas, coal and other commodities prices have generally risen since the beginning of this year.
The price of thermal coal at Newcastle Port in Australia was as high as US$253.6/ton, which was four times the low of 2020; crude oil rose from the minimum of US$40/barrel in 2020 to more than US$80/barrel; at the end of September, the price of natural gas in the United Kingdom rose year-on-year More than 2.5 times...
"During the epidemic prevention and control period, the global economy pressed the'pause button', energy demand fell off a cliff, and energy production and investment fell sharply. Since the beginning of this year, the world economy has continued to pick up, coupled with frequent extreme weather, and energy demand has repeatedly climbed to new highs. Leading to global imbalances in supply and demand and rising prices." Guo Jiaofeng, a researcher at the Institute of Resources and Environmental Policy of the National Research Center, believes that although many countries have taken measures to deal with energy shortages, the stimulus effect of rising prices on global energy supply is slightly lagging. The fundamental imbalance between supply and demand may continue in the coming months.
Stable energy supply has a foundation
Nuclear increase in coal production capacity, strengthen transportation coordination, and develop clean energy
Late at night in early winter, in Pinglu District, Shuozhou City, Shanxi, the temperature dropped to minus 16 degrees Celsius.
However, in the Pingshuo East Open-pit Mine of China Coal Group, more than 300 operators in piercing, blasting, mining, transportation, dumping and other links, as well as more than a hundred large-scale special engineering equipment, are doing a lot of work.
The coal mined 200 meters underground will be sent to the port of Qinhuangdao by rail.
"On November 20, the highest record of 10 outbound trains in a single day was created. At present, there are more than 300 vehicles transporting coal out of the country every day, with a year-on-year increase of 23%." Dong Shubin, the production and mine director of the East Open-pit Mine, told reporters.
Recently, as the temperature drops, northern my country has entered the peak period of coal consumption in winter.
The Meteorological Department predicts that due to the "La Niña" phenomenon, the probability of low temperatures in most of the central and eastern regions in winter is higher.
Shi Ying analyzed that it is expected that coal demand, especially coal demand for power generation and heating, will be relatively strong this winter and next spring, and the supply and demand in some areas during peak hours will be tight. It has laid a solid foundation to ensure a stable supply of thermal coal."
According to Meng Wei, spokesperson of the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Development and Reform Commission will further give play to the role of the inter-departmental coordination mechanism for coal, electricity, oil and gas transportation guarantees. Under the premise of ensuring safety, it will supervise and urge nuclear-increased coal mines to organize production according to the nuclear-increased production capacity; strengthen coal Supervise the performance of medium and long-term contracts to further improve the level of performance; strengthen transportation coordination to ensure that coal is transported to where it is needed, and to ensure that the masses of the people stay warm through the winter.
Affected by the current tight global natural gas supply and demand situation and skyrocketing gas prices, it is expected that the overall national natural gas supply and demand will be tightly balanced during the heating season this year, and the contradiction between supply and demand in some areas during peak hours may be more prominent.
"Next, we will strengthen the gas supply guarantee for heating areas in the north. During the peak period, we will increase the supply of resources in the northern region by organizing the'south gas to the north' and increasing the use of gas storage to increase the supply of resources in the north, and strengthen dispatch guarantees for areas with tight supply." Meng Wei said.
In addition to coal and oil and gas, there is also a batch of clean energy "ready to go" to help ensure energy supply.
Not long ago, SPIC "Nuanhe No. 1" was put into operation in Haiyang City, Shandong. Nuclear energy heating covers the entire city of Haiyang, benefiting 200,000 residents. Haiyang has also become the country's first "zero-carbon" heating city.
Recently, a number of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base projects have started in Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and other places, with a total installed capacity of nearly 30 million kilowatts, which is larger than the installed capacity of the Three Gorges Power Station. After commissioning, it will provide more for economic and social development. High-quality green power support.
At the same time, it should be noted that there are many types of energy systems, and in the context of promoting green and low-carbon transformation of energy, it is necessary to grasp and balance the positioning of various types of energy in different periods.
"Achieving the'dual carbon' goal requires long-term efforts. At present, the randomness and volatility of new energy have not yet been completely resolved, and my country's energy resource endowment is still dominated by coal." Guo Jiaofeng believes that the growth of coal consumption must be strict. However, it is also necessary to avoid "one size fits all" power restriction and production or sports "carbon reduction".
"With the advancement of industrialization and urbanization, my country's energy demand will continue to grow. At present, to increase the proportion of clean energy and promote the large-scale application of advanced energy storage technologies, we cannot ignore the clean utilization of coal, domestic oil and gas exploration and development, and the construction of storage capacity. In short, The energy job must be in your own hands." Guo Jiaofeng said.