The future economy needs to be wary of "black swan" and "gray rhino"

　　News from our newspaper (Reporter Pan Fuda) The global economy is embarking on a difficult road to recovery. It is the common task of the international community to explore a new global governance system and new impetus for economic recovery.

This past weekend, the "Finance" Annual Conference 2022 was held in Beijing. Guests from the political, business and academic circles at home and abroad deeply analyzed global hotspots, and comprehensively looked forward to 2022 and the future new trends in the global and Chinese economy, politics, society, and technology.

　　Talking about the trend of the global economy next year, Huang Yiping, deputy dean of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, said that due to factors such as the epidemic, a new normal will emerge in the global economy next year. It is more important for my country to use policy space to stabilize economic growth.

　　Li Daokui, Dean of the Chinese Institute of Economic Thought and Practice at Tsinghua University, reminded at the forum that next year and for some time to come, the global economy needs to be alert to one "black swan" and three "gray rhinos": in addition to the epidemic "black swan", The three "gray rhinos" are the debt recession, the reorganization of the industrial chain, and low carbon costs.

Specifically, in the process of responding to the epidemic, countries have used a lot of fiscal policies and issued a lot of national debt; after the epidemic has eased, developed countries will find ways to move part of the industrial chain back, which will lead to higher production costs, and Inflationary pressures have brought negative impacts on the economies of many countries. As new technologies to replace traditional energy sources are not yet mature, low-carbon will definitely bring about a rise in costs, and we must be mentally prepared.

　　When talking about China's response, Li Daokui said that while dealing with the legacy of the old growth model, we must find ways to create new growth points.

At present, there are 1 billion people in China who have not yet entered the middle-income group. They are the hope for new growth points.