Li Daokui: China creates new growth points to respond to the "black swan" and "gray rhino" of the world economy

　　China News Service, Beijing, November 28 (Yang Shihan) "Finance" Annual Conference 2022: Forecast and Strategy" was held in Beijing from 27th to 28th. Li Daokui, Dean of the Institute of Chinese Economic Thought and Practice, Tsinghua University, attended the meeting He said that there may be one "black swan" and three "gray rhinos" in the world economy now, and China must work hard to create new growth points to deal with these crises.

　　A "black swan" refers to the epidemic.

Li Daokui believes that if the epidemic repeats, it is likely to cause the largest worldwide economic downturn or recession since World War II.

　　Regarding the three "gray rhinos", he pointed out that the first one is the debt recession. In the process of responding to the epidemic, countries have used a lot of fiscal policies and issued large-scale national debts. After so many debts, there will always be one trouble.

　　The second is the re-layout of the industrial chain.

Li Daokui said that after the epidemic eases in the future, developed countries will find ways to move part of the industrial chain back. From the perspective of the global economy, this will increase production costs and increase inflationary pressures, which will cause negative impacts on the economies of many countries.

　　The third reason is that because the new technology to replace traditional energy is not yet mature, low-carbon will definitely bring about a rise in costs, and we must be mentally prepared.

　　How should China respond?

Li Daokui said bluntly that while dealing with the problems left over from the old growth model, in accordance with the new development concept, we must conscientiously create new growth points and transform the growth mode.

　　In his view, the new growth point includes two aspects. One is that there are 1 billion people in China that have not yet entered the middle-income group. They are the hope for the new growth point. The second is to cultivate new markets and let the market play a role. Carbon market.

　　He believes that if it takes 15 years to turn 400 million of the 1 billion people into middle-income people, the number of middle-income people in China will double, and a dual-cycle pattern will truly take shape.

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