(Economic Observation) The global economy may continue to recover in 2022. Epidemic and inflation become key "variables"

  China News Service, Beijing, November 29 (Reporter Xia Bin) In the latest issue of the International Monetary Fund (hereinafter referred to as "IMF") global economic growth forecast, next year's global economic growth rate has slowed to 4.9% compared with this year. .

How will the global economy go in 2022?

At the recent "Finance" Annual Conference 2022, many guests mentioned in their speeches that the global economy will continue to move forward on the road to recovery next year, and the epidemic and inflation have become the key "variables" that influence the economic situation.

  Zhu Haibin, chief economist of JP Morgan China, said bluntly that in 2021, the global economy has achieved the strongest recovery in the past 40 to 50 years. It is expected that the global economic recovery will continue in 2022, but the growth rate will be lower than in 2021.

  In his view, the consumer sector will begin to recover in 2021, and the global economic recovery in 2022 will further shift to the service industry and other sectors.

However, the growth rate of the global economic recovery in 2022 will slow down. The main reason is that starting from 2022, many countries or regions outside of China will gradually adjust the policies implemented during the epidemic prevention and control period.

  "The international community must work together to ensure the recovery of the global economy." IMF Chief Representative in China Steven Barnett said that the new crown pneumonia epidemic has affected many countries, which also highlights the importance of countries working together to recover the global economy.

He believes that the primary policy of all countries in the world is to speed up vaccination, which can save many lives, prevent the risk of new virus mutations, and support the recovery of the global economy.

The IMF has a proposal that at least 40% of the population in each country will be vaccinated by the end of this year, and 70% will need to be vaccinated by mid-2022.

  "In general, the world economy will continue the recovery process next year, but it will also continue the uneven and unstable recovery that has begun this year." Long Guoqiang, deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council of China, believes that the epidemic will still affect the world economy next year. The main factor is that the repeated fluctuations of the epidemic will have a great impact on the operation and expectations of the world economy.

  Long Guoqiang also pointed out that global inflationary pressures may push the Fed to adjust its monetary policy.

Other countries should pay special attention to the spillover effects of the macroeconomic policies of major powers.

The supply side will improve next year, and the shortages and price increases faced this year will all be eased.

  Yu Xuejun, a former deputy minister-level cadre of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, expressed more concern.

He judged that due to the global central bank's large-scale release of water, global liquidity has been too loose, so since the second half of last year, various commodities have begun to rise in price, and this year they have risen sharply or even exponentially, becoming a cause of global inflation. Major issues.

The sharp increase in prices of bulk products and the resulting global inflation expectations are a prominent issue in global economic growth next year.

  Regarding this, Sun Wei, co-CEO of Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific and CEO of China, analyzed that one of the reasons for inflation is the shortcomings of the supply chain, which naturally formed after the outbreak of the epidemic. The global economy has withstood the early stage of the epidemic. After the shock, it rebounded rapidly, and the surge in demand caused prices to rise sharply, which finally led to a huge imbalance in supply.

  "This imbalance will have two possibilities next year." Sun Wei said, first, the shortcomings of the supply chain have been effectively improved, the economy will continue to accelerate the pace of development, and the threat of inflation will become smaller and smaller. In this case Next, fiscal policy is likely not to accelerate the tightening, but will slow down the pace of tightening.

  Second, the shortcomings of the supply chain cannot be effectively resolved, which has slowed down economic development, resulting in more serious inflation, and forcing countries to further tighten their policies.

"Our research department made a rough estimate. Now when the supply chain problem is the most serious, looking forward, the situation will be improved a lot. Especially by the end of next year, the balance of supply and demand may tend to normalize. ." Sun Wei said.