Sino-Singapore Jingwei, November 29. On the 29th, the three major A-share indexes opened lower. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.99%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.96%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.38%.
A screenshot of Wind at the opening of A shares on the 29th
Opening on the 29th, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.99% to 3,528.67 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.96% to 14,635.48 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.38% to 3,455.61 points. The new crown testing, biological products, and biological vaccines led the rise by two. The city, airport shipping, digital currency, attractions and tourism sectors were among the top decliners.
The ratio of all trading stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen stocks was 427:4044. The two stocks had a daily limit of 11 and a limit of two.
As of November 26, the balance of margin trading and securities lending in Shanghai and Shenzhen stocks was 1.85 trillion yuan.
The balance of financing on the day was 1.72 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.493 billion yuan from the previous trading day; the balance of securities lending that day was 131.491 billion yuan, a decrease of 972 million yuan from the previous trading day.
In terms of individual stocks, the daily limit shares during the call auction period are as follows: Xinli Financial (10.02%), Orient (10.01%), Huasu (10.05%), Fujia (10.02%), Changlu (10.02%).
The lower limit shares are as follows: Zhenyang Development (-9.98%), Guofa shares (-9.95%).
"Omi Keron" hit the global stock market
The mutated strain of the new coronavirus has touched sensitive nerves around the world.
On November 26, the World Health Organization issued a statement, listing the B.1.1.529 new crown variant strain that appeared in South Africa as a variant of concern (VOC, VariantofConcern) and named it Omicron (Omicron).
The mutant strain was first reported to WHO from South Africa on November 24, 2021, and the first known confirmed sample can be traced back to November 9.
The WHO said on the 28th that it is still unclear whether the Omi Kiron strain will cause more serious diseases. It is cooperating with experts to understand the impact of the Omi Kiron strain on current epidemic prevention measures, including vaccination.
Affected by this, the global market fluctuated drastically on November 26. The S&P 500 fell 2.27%, the Dow fell 2.53%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.23%; Britain’s FTSE 100 fell 3.5%, Germany’s DAX fell 4.2%, and France’s CAC40 fell 4.8. %, the VIX panic index soared 54.04%.
The commodity market is also affected.
What is the impact of the spread of new strains on A shares?
Economist Guan Qingyou believes that the overall shock will still occur, but the impact may not be too great.
The global stock markets, including the Chinese stock market, will respond to the mutation of new strains, but the overall resistance to the epidemic has emerged. It is becoming less and less sensitive to this matter and more and more able to absorb these negative shocks.
Guan Qingyou believes that the trend of A-shares this year is obviously different from that of the US stock market, and the US stock market has shown an overall upward trend.
The A-share market is clearly a structured trend this year, and the sector is moving very fast, so it is more difficult to make money this year, but in fact, the expectations for economic operation and the epidemic have been reflected in the structural changes.
Top ten securities firms study and judge the impact of new strains
A number of securities firm research reports also made judgments on the impact of new strains on the stock market:
Haitong Securities: The spread of new strains may have limited impact on A shares
When the news of the Omicron strain was fermented, after the A-share market closed on Friday, the FTSE A50 futures index in night trading fell only 0.18%.
We believe that my country's current rapid response and dynamic zero-clearing strategies can fully cope with various complex situations, and the spread of new strains may have limited impact on A shares.
China Merchants Securities: have a greater negative impact on the current capital market
Omicron has a relatively large negative impact on the current capital market. A-share volatility may also be triggered by this, but the adjustment will not be too large and the time will not be too long. It is necessary to pay close attention to the latest research progress and impact, including the prospects for global economic recovery. A series of influences such as the monetary policy of developed countries in Europe and the United States.
The central bank's monetary policy implementation report released a positive signal of future monetary policy, indicating that future liquidity may be gradually loosened.
The fourth-quarter performance will rebound due to the low base, but it is expected that the growth rate of the first quarter of 2022 will drop significantly.
Against the background of gradual decline in fundamentals and expectations of gradual easing of liquidity in the future, it is difficult for the market to present systematic opportunities and risks.
Northeast Securities: Will boost medicine and growth
The new virus strain Omicron will not change the A-share market for the new year, which will boost medicine and growth, and suppress pro-cyclicality.
In reviewing the past few repeated epidemics, the impact of this Omicron strain is as follows: (1) The impact level on market sentiment is similar to the three repeated epidemics this year, and will be significantly smaller than February-May 2020 and June 2020. From September to September, it was mainly due to the declining mortality rate caused by vaccination.
(2) Due to the pressure of high inflation, the market has strong expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates next year, and the new virus strains are likely to weaken the inflation pressure and thus weaken the interest rate hike expectations; but referring to the 2014 QE3 withdrawal, there is no interruption in the middle, and new strains are expected Will not reverse the execution of Taper.
(3) Foreign capital may flow out of A shares in the short term, but it will not continue and will not affect the A-share market for the new year.
(4) At the industry level, the pharmaceutical and growth industries will be boosted, and procyclical may be under pressure.
CITIC Securities: The impact of new strains brings opportunities for layout
The new South African virus strain will have a short-term impact on market sentiment, but it will also bring a good opportunity to lay out the blue chip market for the new year. Under the medium-term incremental capital layout and the end of the year institutional game, the differentiation of individual stocks in various industries is greater than that between industries. The blue-chip main line represented by the leading varieties will be clearer.
It is recommended to continue to resolutely focus on the products whose fundamentals are still expected to be at a low level, those whose valuations are still at a relatively low level, and the types of high-prosperity products that are at a relatively low level after adjustment.
CICC: A shares may be more resilient than overseas markets
The A-share market may also be affected by overseas sentiment in the short term. However, under the new variables of the epidemic, A-shares may be more resilient than overseas markets. The policy expectations of stable internal growth may be a more critical factor dominating market performance.
We have a positive view on the overall market performance from now to the end of 2022, and we are optimistic about marginal changes in policy or areas that are potentially supportive (including the industry chain related to stable real estate demand), mid- and downstream consumption, and high-prosperity manufacturing directions.
Essence Securities: Configure a high-prosperity long track
At present, it is not clear that the spread and destructive power of the new mutant strains, let alone the loose expectations brought about by it, so the current research judges that its impact is neutral, but the uncertainty has increased. It is recommended to watch more Do not move, and wait and see.
If there is a short-term sharp drop in the market, you can be more optimistic about the market outlook.
In terms of configuration, attention will be paid to the stability of next year's performance and the certainty of high prosperity, and it is recommended to temporarily avoid some industries that may be affected by the epidemic.
Guotai Junan: No need to panic too much
The risk of this round of mutant viruses still needs to be dynamically observed, but in view of the domestic prevention and control experience and the historical interpretation of the epidemic, there is no need to panic about its impact on the capital market.
Under the background that risk appetite continues to be at a low level, the research and judgment of risk evaluation has become more important than risk appetite. Under the "economic downturn + easing restraint", the investment perspective requires more certainty of profitability.
Continue to be optimistic about the high-prosperity track and the financial sector with low valuations, and orderly layout the consumption style switching.
Tianfeng Securities: Mainly depends on the extent to which the new strain surpasses Delta
In retrospect, if the new strain is similar to Delta virus, it will have a limited impact on A shares and may only be a one-time impact.
If the new strain far surpasses Delta, the impact of the linkage of short-term risk appetite from overseas markets may be even greater.
In the medium term, if this is a more serious virus invasion, then on the one hand: domestic control will be stricter, which is not conducive to the recovery of some service consumption; on the other hand: it will impact the global supply chain, but it is essential for the country. The above is positive, because it helps domestic companies increase their global share, which is reflected in that the export side continues to exceed expectations. At the same time, the policy level may continue to use the export→manufacturing→employment environment and window to make the real estate industry risk as soon as possible Clearance is reflected in credit, which is more structurally lenient credit and non-comprehensive stimulus.
Southwest Securities: Three directions can be paid special attention
In response, we need to allocate sectors that can avoid these risks while maintaining their own steady growth.
Specifically, we believe that there are three directions that deserve special attention: First, the medical sector deserves special attention.
Because the pre-adjustment of the pharmaceutical sector is relatively adequate, and on the policy side, the consequences of excessively strict medical insurance fee control are gradually appearing. It is expected that the medical insurance fee control policy is expected to gradually ease in the future, and the profitability of pharmaceutical companies is expected to gradually recover. At the same time, the population aging trend and the new crown epidemic Certainty has increased the demand for the pharmaceutical sector.
Second, the military industry sector that can avoid economic downside risks is still worthy of attention.
The military sector has a certain early correction, and the overall valuation is more than 50 times, which matches the performance growth rate in 2022. The performance growth of the leading target is expected to double in 2022, so it still has a relatively high cost performance.
Third, a mandatory consumer sector with a price transmission mechanism and relatively stable demand.
Huaan Securities: No need to worry too much about the impact of the epidemic on risk appetite
The impact of the Omi Keron strain on the market is expected to be short-lived and will not form continuous risk appetite constraints.
We expect that under the fear of the epidemic, especially in the feedback of a significant decline in overseas indexes, A-shares may further feedback on this, but such feedback is likely to be short and fast, such as within 1-2 trading days. The completion of the feedback will not continue to form a risk impact and restraint on the global stock market and A-shares.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
(The opinions in the article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)