Chinanews client, Beijing, November 24th (Zuo Yukun) Recently, the rapid cooling of the real estate market has attracted much attention.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in October, the price of new homes continued the downward trend in September. The price of new homes in 70% of the 70 large and medium-sized cities fell month-on-month; the price of second-hand homes has fallen for three consecutive months since August, 70 Second-hand house prices in over 90% of cities in the city fell month-on-month.
In just a few months, the number of cities where housing prices rose and fell was completely reversed. The full-line decline in housing prices in core cities has not been seen for many years, and even more than 20 cities have issued "restriction orders" for housing prices.
Why is the property market rapidly cooling down?
What will happen to the property market in the future after housing prices appear "inverted V-shaped" in 2021?
In 2022, will house prices continue to fall or turn to rise?
Recently, Zou Linhua, the leader of the housing big data project team of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of Financial Strategy, accepted an exclusive interview with the "China New Observation" column of Chinanews.com for interpretation.
Drawing: Ni Wenbing
Excerpts from the interview are as follows:
Chinanews.com: In 2021, the property market will first continue to heat up, and then there has been a significant cooling in the past two months. The quarter-on-month data on housing prices in 70 cities also rose first and then fell. Why does this happen? If you made a summary of the housing market in 2021, how would you evaluate it?
Zou Linhua: The
property market has cooled down in recent months due to two factors.
First, after the market heats up too fast, there is a need for adjustment in the short term.
The increase (in part) is due to the lack of timely follow-up of relevant regulatory policies after the epidemic, and economic stimulus policies have also played a certain stimulus effect on the real estate market.
Of course, this effect is not sustainable, and the subsequent cooling is also predictable.
Second, the real estate market regulation and control policies, especially the follow-up of financial policies in the second half of the year, have a great effect on curbing housing investment speculation.
With the lengthening of the housing credit application cycle, the frequency of transactions has also decreased significantly, which has a significant cooling effect on the market.
Generally speaking, in 2021, the real estate market will show a trend of "rising first and then falling, first rising and then falling, with steady but then falling".
Although some (real estate) companies have experienced staged operating difficulties, the real estate industry is still within a reasonable and risk-controllable operating range.
Data map: There are many buildings in the city.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Wang Dongming
Chinanews: What do you think of the current cooling of the property market? What are the characteristics of the property market in first-, second- and third-tier cities?
Zou Linhua:
As a cyclical industry, real estate will not only rise or fall, nor will it only fall without rising.
Rise and fall are normal market phenomena and should be viewed with a normal market perspective.
There is no need to be overly pessimistic or optimistic. This is irrational and does not conform to China's objective reality.
The moderate cooling of the property market is conducive to the stable and healthy operation of the market.
Control policies should also maintain a certain degree of determination.
In the past three months, temperatures in tier 1, 2, 3, and 4 cities have cooled.
Relatively speaking, first- and fourth-tier cities have fallen less, and second and third-tier cities have fallen relatively more. This shows that the fundamentals of the property market in first- and fourth-tier cities are better than those in second and third-tier cities, which also reflects China’s urbanization and population. The basic pattern of mobility.
The first-tier cities are due to the trend of urbanization, and the fourth-tier cities are mainly due to the rigid demand brought about by in-situ urbanization.
Chinanews.com: According to past experience, how long will the general property market cool down? Looking forward to 2022, what do you think about the trend of housing prices and the overall trend of the property market?
Zou Linhua:
According to past experience, China's property market is mainly showing a trend of impulsive rise.
In this situation, the small cycle is about 5-6 years, of which the rising time is 1-2 years, and the adjustment or stabilization time is 3-4 years.
But for the moment, China's property market has entered an era of great differentiation, and it doesn't make much sense to talk about the overall ups and downs.
For 2022, the market as a whole should be stable, and the probability of a big rise or fall is very small. Because the market is huge and the regional development is uneven, there will be no big rises and falls.
Moreover, the government can follow up the regulation in a timely manner, and it can also control abnormal market fluctuations.
Of course, it is not ruled out that some individual abnormal rises and falls (situations) occur locally.
Data map: real estate.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Bin
Chinanews.com: We have seen that more than 20 cities have issued “restriction orders” for house prices, especially in third- and fourth-tier cities. Under the general tone of "housing to live without speculation", to maintain the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, what countermeasures do you have?
Zou Linhua:
First, we must insist on "no speculation in housing and housing", continue to curb housing investment speculation, maintain policy continuity and stability, avoid artificial policy fluctuations, and promote the stability of market expectations.
Second, with the goal of market stability, timely and moderately pre-adjusted and fine-tuned according to changes in the market situation.
The third is to strengthen the monitoring and prevention of the risk of abnormal market volatility, especially the risk of regional coordinated volatility.
The fourth is to strengthen the smoothness of policy implementation and reduce policy-related market fluctuations.
The fifth is to improve the basic system and market supervision system, such as strengthening the supervision of pre-sale funds to ensure the basic rights and interests of consumers.
Sixth, in accordance with changes in the market situation, timely clean up some unscientific and untimely temporary policies, such as some temporary price-limiting policies, and avoid the long-term use of short-term policies.
Chinanews.com: At present, the development of affordable rental housing and other fields has attracted much attention. In 2022, under the guidance of the goal of "housing to live", what key areas in the housing market need to be breakthroughs?
Zou Linhua: The
first is to improve control policies, improve the smoothness of policies from formulation to implementation, promote market stability, and prevent market risks.
The second is to continue to develop the rental market, promote the same rights of rent and purchase, and achieve simultaneous rent and purchase.
The third is to make good use of policy support for affordable rental housing, revitalize the stock of land resources, and vigorously increase the supply of affordable rental housing.
The fourth is to promote the reform of housing land supply and increase land supply channels.
The fifth is to promote the transformation of old communities and continuously improve the living conditions of households.
(over)
Brief introduction of interviewed guests:
Linhua Zou is the leader of the housing big data project team of the Institute of Financial Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the deputy director of the Competitiveness Simulation Laboratory of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and the founder of Weifang Index. He has long been engaged in housing market monitoring and policy research.
Visiting scholar at Baruch College, City University of New York (2011-2012), director of the World Chinese Real Estate Society.
Presided over a number of important research projects such as the major national research projects of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the National Natural Science Foundation of China.