Meta-universe boom: a game with both technological breakthroughs and bubbles
In a sense, the meta-universe is a possible path for us to explore the needs of our inner world, and it embodies our yearning for a smart social life.
In response to a series of problems arising from the current meta-universe boom, we need to adopt a positive and cautious attitude to steadily promote the healthy and orderly development of the meta-universe industry.
Not long ago, the global technology giant Facebook announced that its business layout was shifting to Metaverse, and even changed its company name to Meta, which aroused strong attention from all walks of life to Metaverse.
And this is just a microcosm of the meta-universe upsurge set off by the capital market.
In March of this year, Roblox, the game known as the best embodiment of the meta-universe concept, received US$520 million in financing. The developer of the game, Roblox, had a market value of over US$40 billion on the first day of listing, an increase from its valuation a year ago. 10 times; ByteDance also acquired the VR startup Pico at a price of nearly 10 billion, demonstrating its determination to deploy the meta-universe... The major domestic and foreign technology giants have started the pace of exploring the meta-universe, but the same meta-universe track However, the way of "racing racing" is quite different.
Different entry modes on the same track
Judging from the current situation, the major technology companies mainly rely on their existing advantages to deploy the meta-universe field, which can be divided into three modes:
The first is to focus on core components and basic platform areas, and accelerate the deployment of Meta Universe hardware portals and operating systems, with international digital technology giants such as Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft as the mainstay. Domestic companies such as ByteDance are also accelerating the advancement of Meta Universe. Research and development of related hardware.
The second is to focus on business models and content scenarios, and explore the landing of related application scenarios of Metaverse, focusing on domestic digital technology giants. For example, Tencent stated that it will accelerate the research and development of Metaverse in the fields of games and social networking.
The third is the government's promotion of enterprise entry mode, mainly Korean enterprises.
South Korea is one of the most active countries in the world to promote the development of the metaverse industry. Its capital, Seoul, announced in November this year as the first city government to join the metaverse. At the same time, the development of the metaverse industry in Korea is mainly led by relevant government departments, guiding and Promote Samsung, Hyundai Motor, LG and other companies to form a "metauniverse alliance" to form a joint force for the development of enterprises in the metauniverse field, so as to promote the realization of a larger-scale virtual reality connection, and establish a national-level metauniverse development platform in Korea.
It should be noted that the battle for the meta-universe field at home and abroad is already in full swing, and the global imbalanced development of the meta-universe industry is gradually taking shape. Under this scenario, Chinese companies should strengthen the scientific and technological hard power of the meta-universe industry.
Landing requires two technological breakthroughs
Technical limitations are currently the biggest bottleneck facing the development of Metaverse.
The maturity of related technologies still has a certain gap from the requirements of Meta Universe landing applications. Therefore, the existing Meta Universe technology display scenes are mostly experimental, local and limited applications, and the display cost is very high.
For example, in the 15-second "Digital Huang Renxun" shown by NVIDIA at its press conference in April this year, nearly 50 R&D personnel have been invested and 21 versions have been produced.
As a comprehensive integrated application of multiple digital technologies, the meta-universe scene needs to achieve two technological breakthroughs from concept to actual implementation: the first is a breakthrough in single technologies such as XR, digital twins, blockchain, and artificial intelligence. The dimension realizes the basic functions of meta-universe applications such as stereo vision, deep immersion, virtual avatars; the second breakthrough is a breakthrough in the comprehensive application of multiple digital technologies, through the superposition and compatibility of multiple technologies, interactive fusion, condensing and forming a technological synergy to promote the stability of the meta-universe Orderly development.
In addition, data also plays a key role in the development of the meta universe.
On the one hand, the development of related technologies and scenarios of Metaverse will have higher requirements on the volume and dimensions of data, and more personal information needs to be collected from users; on the other hand, data security is important for the healthy and orderly development of Metaverse. premise.
In order to balance data use and data security, it is necessary to proactively build the collection and use specifications of meta-universe-related data.
Future applications are closely related to work and life
From the perspective of the nature of technology, the meta universe is a technological means that allows us to better integrate with our environment.
Therefore, the landing of meta-universe-related applications will be closely related to our daily work and life, which mainly includes four forms: one is "metaization" of work, that is, a large number of work scenarios such as meetings, design, monitoring, etc. will occur in the meta-universe; The second is the "metaization" of life, that is, a large number of life scenes such as shopping, leisure, entertainment, etc. will be transferred to the meta-universe; the third is the development of "metaization", the virtual world will break the physical rules of the real world that we are accustomed to, from a brand new The perspective promotes R&D and innovation, and Metaverse may become a new type of laboratory for research and development; the fourth is the "metaization" of social governance. The development of Metaverse will further promote the construction of smart cities and promote the efficiency and level of social governance.
At present, many internationally renowned consulting institutions such as PricewaterhouseCoopers have optimistic expectations for the future development of Metaverse. At the same time, industry insiders generally believe that Metaverse is likely to be a new direction for future Internet development.
From the current scale of the Internet segmentation industry, it can be seen that with the development and evolution of Metaverse, different types of enterprises can seize the opportunity of "metaization" and achieve a good connection with the development of Metaverse, and they will be able to occupy a place in the future Metaverse market.
Although Metaverse has broad market prospects, from the perspective of the current computing power conditions, network technology and virtual reality technology related to the development of Metaverse, the realization of its basic scenarios will take about 10-20 years.
Meta Universe is still in its embryonic development period, and the related application scenarios surrounding it are almost all on paper. The market scale at this stage is relatively small and full of uncertainty.
The meta-universe boom may bring negative effects
Since the beginning of this year, major global investment institutions have increased their deployment in the field of Metaverse, which has promoted the continuous increase in the degree of attention and popularity of Metaverse.
On the one hand, this upsurge has promoted the development of Metaverse related technologies such as XR, digital twins, and artificial intelligence, and strengthened the development momentum of Metaverse related industries, which has certain positive significance.
On the other hand, this craze has also produced some negative effects, and may even mislead the development direction of the meta-universe industry, which is mainly reflected in the following three aspects:
First, companies have gathered together and poured into the meta-universe field to create "meta-universe man-made designs" one after another.
Since the realization of Metaverse application scenarios requires the comprehensive integration of multiple digital technologies, some technology-related companies quickly packaged themselves into a Metaverse enterprise or changed the original business of the company to be related to Metaverse when the concept of Metaverse was on fire. .
This kind of behavior that caters to the concept boom and deviates from the original technological development path may not be very helpful to the enterprise, or even backfire.
Second, some technological bubbles have been added, and some new routines and scams have even been born from this.
The favor of technology giants and venture capital for Meta Universe has led to a surge in related concept stocks, which has increased the Meta Universe bubble to a certain extent.
For example, in the current market squatting of Metaverse related trademarks, some of the businesses' businesses have almost nothing to do with Metaverse.
There are even illegal companies and individuals under the guise of Metaverse, doing things that "take loopholes", and this has spawned some routines and scams.
The third is to sell anxious and wealthy pie, and harvest the "IQ tax."
Some organizations and individuals often use exaggerated words such as “ultimate”, “last time”, and “future channel” to describe Metaverse. "IQ Tax".
In a sense, the meta-universe is a possible path for us to explore the needs of our inner world, and it embodies our yearning for a smart social life.
In response to a series of problems arising from the current meta-universe boom, we need to adopt a positive and cautious attitude to steadily promote the healthy and orderly development of the meta-universe industry.
The first thing that needs to be clear is that technical limitations are the first problem that Metaverse needs to solve.
All discussions or layouts around the meta-universe related modes can only be realized after a real breakthrough in technology.
Solidly advancing basic digital technology research is the most effective strategy for the layout of the meta-universe track. Only by continuously enhancing technological innovation capabilities and steadily improving technological maturity can we win the commanding heights in the development of the meta-universe industry and truly promote the maturity of the meta-universe industry.
Secondly, the meta-universe industry is still in its infancy, and its commercial value will take a time to manifest.
Practice has long proven that technological innovation cannot deviate from commercial value, and commercial value cannot exist independently of technological innovation.
In the face of the meta-universe boom, we must maintain rational behavioral cognition and correct market orientation, and beware of technology and concepts that give rise to a technology bubble.
Finally, from the perspective of individual users, it is necessary to be curious and pragmatic when dealing with a new thing that is rapidly developing Metaverse, and to remain calm and vigilant against the hype related to Metaverse in the market.
(The author is an associate researcher at the Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)