LPR "Stay on hold" for 19 consecutive months-the role of credit market structure adjustment has become more apparent


　　 Our reporter Yao Jin

　　On November 22, the latest loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) was released.

The People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to announce that the 1-year LPR is 3.85%, and the 5-year or more LPR is 4.65%.

The quoted interest rates of the two loan markets have been at the same level for 19 consecutive months.

　　Regarding the reason why the LPR quotation remained unchanged in November, Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Oriental Jincheng, said that on November 15, the central bank continued to make a one-year mid-term lending facility (MLF), and the bidding rate was 2.95%, which was the same as last month. , Which shows that the reference basis of LPR quotations in November has not changed.

It can be seen that since September 2019, the 1-year LPR quotation and the 1-year MLF bidding rate have always been adjusted simultaneously, and the spread is fixed at 90 basis points (0.9 percentage points).

In addition, data shows that the bank's net interest margin at the end of the third quarter was the same as at the end of the previous quarter, and continued to stay near historical lows, and various profit indicators were under pressure.

As a result, commercial banks have insufficient incentives to lower their key loan interest rate pricing reference benchmarks.

　　"LPR quotations can comprehensively reflect the views and attitudes of the central bank and banking financial institutions on the current supply and demand of the credit market. LPR continues to remain stable this month, reflecting the current level of interest rates in the credit market at a desirable level. Financial data released in October previously showed that M2, social finance The growth rate basically matches the nominal GDP, reflecting that the supply of money and credit is reasonable and appropriate. In addition, the continued stability of LPR will also help stabilize the real estate market expectations.” said Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of Everbright Bank.

　　In my country's current interest rate system, LPR quotations belong to the category of market interest rates, but they have strong policy signal significance and are widely concerned by the market.

Wang Qing said that the LPR quotation has remained stable continuously, showing that monetary policy has adhered to the keynote of stability, focusing on the use of structural policy tools such as small refinancing and carbon emission reduction support tools. Under the background of controllable economic downward pressure, Focus on increasing support for weak links in the national economy and advance structural reforms.

　　Zhou Maohua also believes that the current domestic real economy is recovering from imbalances, some industries and enterprises are facing challenges, and structural problems are still prominent.

In this case, in order to better balance stable growth and prevent risks, it is expected that the management will rely more on policy tools such as structure and direct access to improve the quality and effectiveness of financial support policies while ensuring a reasonable and appropriate growth in the total credit volume.

　　The October macro data released last week showed that, driven by the increase in coal production and supply, and the weakening of the impact of the epidemic on consumption, the macro economy has recently achieved "weak stabilization", halting the relatively rapid downward trend in the previous few months.

However, both ends of the current macroeconomic supply and demand are still weak.

Since November, all localities and departments are deploying measures to stabilize growth.

The "Report on the Implementation of China's Monetary Policy for the Third Quarter of 2021" recently released by the Central Bank also pointed out that "the recovery and development of the domestic economy is facing some phased, structural, and cyclical constraints, making it more difficult to maintain a stable economy."

In addition, October price data showed that PPI rose to 13.5% year-on-year, and the "scissors gap" between PPI and CPI expanded to 12 percentage points, a record high.

　　"These are evidenced by the increasing downward pressure on the domestic economy since the third quarter. In the context of more difficult operations for most mid- and downstream small and micro enterprises, this means that the demand for financial support for the real economy will increase for some time in the future." Wang Qing said.

　　In fact, the management has recently been taking targeted and targeted support measures to increase support for small and micro enterprises, including an increase of 300 billion yuan in small re-loan lines, 200 billion yuan in tax deferrals, and optimization of the business environment Wait.

Wang Qing believes that, taking into account the downward pressure on the economy, it is expected that the supervisory authorities will take further measures to encourage banks to lend, guide financial institutions to further make reasonable profits to the real economy, and reduce loan interest rates for small and micro enterprises.

　　According to the "Report on the Implementation of China's Monetary Policy for the Third Quarter of 2021", in September, the weighted average interest rate of loans was 5.00%.

Among them, the weighted average interest rate of general loans was 5.30%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.01%.

The weighted average interest rate of corporate loans was 4.59%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points year-on-year, and was at a historically low level.

　　"Driven by the LPR reform, the weighted average interest rate of corporate loans has dropped significantly, and it is now at a historically low level." Zhang Xu, chief fixed income analyst at Everbright Securities, said that before the LPR reform, the loan interest rate had a floor price, so The cost-effectiveness of lending to large enterprises is significantly higher than that of small and micro enterprises.

After the LPR reform, the implicit lower limit of the loan interest rate was broken, and the advantage of banks in lending to large enterprises was no longer obvious. This increased the willingness of financial institutions to provide funds to small and micro enterprises, and correspondingly improved the competitiveness of the credit market for small and micro enterprises. As a result, the actual loan interest rate for small and micro enterprises has continued to be stable with a slight decrease.

It is expected that the structural adjustment effect of the LPR reform will be more fully manifested in the next stage.

Yao Jin