Why the cement industry is not busy during the peak season
Our reporter Zhu Junbi
In the fourth quarter of this year, cement demand plummeted.
The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that from January to October this year, the country’s cumulative cement output was 1.973 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, and the growth rate was 3.2 percentage points lower than that from January to September. In October, the national monthly cement output was 201 million. Tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.8%. Excluding the impact of the high base in the fourth quarter of 2020, compared with 2019 and 2018, they also fell by 8% to 9% respectively.
The reporter learned from the China Cement Association that October is the traditional peak season for demand in the cement industry, and a single month's cement production fell unexpectedly by more than double digits year-on-year.
The overall market demand this year was high and low, which was in line with expectations, but the magnitude and speed of the decline exceeded expectations.
Kong Xiangzhong, executive chairman of the China Cement Association, believes that the decline in cement demand requires staggered production. Energy dual control must save energy and reduce carbon. "Investment fluctuations and changes in the energy supply chain have caused some engineering projects to stop and wait for work, which affects cement demand in the short term. The main reason for the decline".
Kong Xiangzhong analyzed that, first of all, the demand for cement plummeted due to the new start of real estate and the decline in sales.
Data shows that the country’s newly-started area has experienced negative growth for 4 consecutive months. In October, the sales of new homes were cold, and developers further slowed down the pace of new construction.
According to a survey by Digital Cement Network, real estate projects across the country have shown weakness in response to the demand for cement.
Second, the issuance of special bonds has accelerated, but new projects have not yet been launched.
Speeding up the issuance of local government bonds and further optimizing the investment areas will help stabilize investment, stabilize growth, and make up for shortcomings.
Judging from the follow-up investigation of the Digital Cement Network, the new special bonds are actually less heavily invested in newly-started projects.
On the one hand, the special debt funds open a supervisory account, which requires strict supervision and review and slow payment; on the other hand, most construction projects in progress have a large amount of debt in the early stage.
Third, the shortage of funds and rising raw material prices have slowed down the progress of construction projects.
It is understood that from late October to early November, some construction sites voluntarily ended construction, resulting in a significant reduction in the demand for cement and other raw materials.
Finally, "dual control of energy consumption" and power shortages have caused cement companies to reduce production.
"Overall, the sharp decline in demand is not a single influencing factor, but a trend decline caused by a combination of factors. As the weather improves and the construction in progress in the southern region rushes, demand will improve month-on-month." Kong Xiangzhong emphasized, "Cement Enterprises must learn to adapt to the changes in the new green and low-carbon situation, and high-quality development will inevitably drive the continuous upgrading of the upstream supply chain."
The situation encountered by the cement industry highlights the urgency of promoting energy conservation and carbon reduction.
A few days ago, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued the "Several Opinions on Strict Energy Efficiency Constraints to Promote Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction in Key Fields", and its annex "Strict Energy Efficiency Constraints in Key Industries of Metallurgy and Building Materials to Promote Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan (2021-2025)" requirements By 2025, the energy efficiency of the cement industry will reach a benchmark level of production capacity of more than 30%. The overall energy efficiency of the industry will be significantly improved, the carbon emission intensity will be significantly reduced, and the green and low-carbon development capacity will be significantly enhanced.
Kong Xiangzhong said that the "Several Opinions on Strict Energy Efficiency Restrictions to Promote Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction in Key Fields" has included the cement industry in the first batch of key energy conservation and carbon reduction industries. China Cement Association and large enterprise groups will actively cooperate with government authorities to study and formulate specific Action plan, clarify the main goals and key tasks of energy conservation and carbon reduction.
First, we must strengthen scientific and technological innovation, carry out demonstration transformations for energy conservation and carbon reduction, benchmark international advanced levels, accelerate the transformation and upgrading of existing projects, and eliminate outdated production capacity through energy efficiency standards.
The second is to insist on supply-side structural reforms and encourage enterprises to implement mergers and reorganizations under the premise of implementing capacity replacement and other requirements.
"On the premise of not adding new production capacity, the new round of industrial restructuring of the cement industry, marked by increased regional industrial concentration and newly built large-scale intelligent cement projects, has already begun with the promotion of the'Policy Combination Fist'. "China Cement Association Deputy Secretary-General Li Chen said, "The country's new requirements for energy efficiency will force the cement industry to accelerate the improvement of energy management and technology levels in the next five years, and reduce the total amount and intensity of energy consumption."
Zhu Junbi