The Deutsche Bundesbank has apparently raised its forecast for inflation in Germany again.
She now even expects inflation of just under 6 percent for the current month.
This emerges from the current monthly report.
For a long time the central bank had taken the view that inflation in Germany would move "in the direction of 5 percent" over the course of the year.
Most recently, Bundesbank chief economist Jens Ulrich wrote on the Twitter news service that the inflation rate in Germany could even be more than 5 percent in November.
So now the forecast is almost 6 percent.
The Bundesbank also emphasizes that it does expect inflation rates to fall next year.
However, it could continue to be significantly more than 3 percent for a longer period of time.
Two special effects
Christian Siedenbiedel
Editor in business.
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In October prices rose sharply again, writes the Bundesbank.
The inflation rate rose from 4.1 percent in September to 4.6 percent.
In the current month it could even amount to just under 6 percent, of which a good 1.5 percentage points can be attributed to two special effects.
The effect that the value added tax was temporarily lowered in Germany last year alone accounts for around 1.25 percentage points.
Therefore, prices from last year with the lower tax rate are compared with prices from this year with the higher tax rate.
That also drives inflation.
On the other hand, the usual seasonal high in prices for package tours in summer - especially in July and August - had significantly less impact than in the previous year because package tours in the Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP) had fallen.
That initially reduced the rate of price increases.
"The statistical special effect now works in reverse and increases the rate of inflation by a good 0.25 percentage points," writes the Bundesbank.
It lapses in December and the VAT base effect in January.