Back to more than 10 yuan! The price of pork has risen by more than 30% in five weeks because...

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　　Editor's note:

　　This is the People's Livelihood Investigation Bureau, which has never seen people's livelihood and investigates changes in people's livelihood.

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　　Chinanews client, Beijing, November 21 (Reporter Xie Yiguan) "The winter wax is pickled in wind and stored for the winter."

Entering November, along with the upsurge of curing meat, pork also ushered in a wave of price increases.

Data map: dried sausages.

Zhang Yuanshe

Pork wholesale prices rose more than 30% in five weeks

　　According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in the 45th week of 2021 (November 8-November 14), the weekly average price of pork in the wholesale market was 24.02 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 3.8% from the previous month, which was a five-week increase, with a cumulative increase of 34.9%. This is 39.0% lower than the same period last year.

　　The wholesale price has risen by more than 30% in more than a month, so has the retail price changed much?

　　At a pork stall in a vegetable market in Xicheng District, Beijing, the big five flowers are priced at 18 yuan per catty, the front and rear tip is priced at 16 yuan per catty, and the front elbow is priced at 13 yuan per catty.

　　"The meat has gone up a bit recently, like when the front and back tips were cheaper than before, it went up by two or three yuan." The merchant said.

　　A reporter from Chinanews.com noticed that the price tag on the front and rear tip still left 15 yuan to 16 yuan, and the front elbow was directly changed from 12 yuan to 13 yuan.

　　In a supermarket in Xicheng District, Beijing, the front and back price is 15.8 yuan per catty, and the pork belly is 18.8 yuan per catty.

In mid-October, the front and back price here was still 11.8 yuan per catty, and the price of pork belly was 17.8 yuan per catty.

A pork stall in a supermarket in Xicheng District, Beijing.

Photo by Xie Yiguan, a reporter from China News Service

　　“Pork prices have risen a little while ago, but they have fallen again recently.” The supermarket staff said, “In fact, pork can’t be too cheap. No matter how cheap it is, farmers will have to complain. After all, feed prices have gone up.”

　　Benefiting from this wave of price increases, "Judging from the latest pig feed ratio data, the average profit of pig farmers in the future is 238 yuan, which has turned from loss to profit." Zhuo Chuang Information analyst Niu Zhe revealed to reporters.

Why did the price of pork go up?

　　"The main reason is that after the cold weather, demand has picked up, coupled with a slight decrease in the number of new born piglets this summer, prices have risen slightly under the influence of both ends of supply and demand." Live pig industry analyst Feng Yonghui told reporters.

　　"From the consumer side, the weather turned cold in November, and the enema in the north and the cured wax in the south began one after another, which supported the increase in live pig prices." Niu Zhe said.

　　"From the supply side, from June to August, there was a wave of African swine fever in the south, which caused the production of some live pigs to be damaged. In addition, the live pig market had been at a loss in the early stage, and some retail investors and group pig farms began to reduce their slaughter weights. Niu Zhe said that in the current peak consumption season, fat pigs of more than 140 kilograms are extremely needed, but the market is out of stock, which drives this wave of live pig prices to rise.

Data map: Breeding pigs imported from overseas in Jilin Province.

Photo courtesy of Changchun Customs

What will happen to pork prices in the later period?

　　Seeing that the price of pork has returned to more than 10 yuan per catty, many people worry that the price of pork will continue to "climb the stairs."

　　In this regard, Feng Yonghui believes that pork prices have rebounded only because of the rebound in demand.

"According to official data, this wave of rise is not cyclical and trendy. The current pig production capacity is still at a high level, so it is only a phased rebound."

　　"By December, the price of pigs may be facing a trend of high decline." Niu Zhe predicted that at the end of the year, some leading companies and live pig listed companies, in order to complete the annual sprint task, may focus on increasing the volume in December.

　　In addition, “due to the recent increase in the price of live pigs, some retail investors are reluctant to sell them. They may also wait until December, when the overall supply of live pigs may increase.” Niu Zhe pointed out.

　　In Niu Zhe’s view, affected by the weather this year, the enema in the north and the cured meat in the south were opened almost a month in advance. The consumption is in an early state. The peak season for pork consumption may be concentrated in November or early December, and it will be in late December. It is estimated to be at the end of consumption.

When the time comes, the supply of pork will be oversupply, which may lead to a trend of high prices and a downward trend.

　　Has your family been marinating bacon and enema recently?

Has the price of pork gone up?

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