Macroeconomics Jug of cold water from Brussels: growth forecast for Spain sinks 1.6 points this year
The Spanish economy will rebound below 5%, therefore far from the 6.5% maintained by the Government.
This is what the European Commission announced last week and what
the Funcas Panel
confirms today
, which foresees a 4.8% rebound
.
This figure is the average of all the forecasts that are included in the aforementioned panel, and in which BBVA Research, CEOE, Repsol, the Spanish Chamber of Commerce or Funcas itself are present. That is, organizations, entities and firms of great relevance and prestige, and which usually offer a very accurate vision of the situation in Spain.
"The INE has sharply revised down the GDP growth figure for the second quarter, from an initial 2.8% to 1.1%. It has also published the third quarter result, provisionally placing it at 2% Both results are
well below expectations, which anticipated that Spain would be one of the main engines
of growth in the EU. Added to this is a fourth quarter that will be marked by rising inflation and the continuation of the difficulties of supply ", they explain in Funcas.
As a result, they add "the expected rate for GDP growth in 2021 is now 4.8%, which is a 1.4 percentage point cut from the forecast published in September."
And
"all the panelists", the document emphasizes, "have revised their growth forecast downwards."
And for 2022, "the forecast has been lowered from 6.1% to 5.7%", is added in the document published this Thursday.
The data, in addition to the aforementioned reduction, means moving away even more than the 7% expected by the Government and the set of figures show, once again, that the forecasts on which the Executive has made the macro table as well as
the General Budgets of the Estrado are totally out of date
.
Rebound in public debt
Almost at the same time, the Bank of Spain has published data on public debt for September, which shows a notable rise of 12,885 million, with which liabilities now
reach 1,432 billion euros
.
It is, of course, the highest figure in history and much higher, for example, to the 1.308 trillion of September last year.
If viewed in relative terms, that is, with respect to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a whole, the figure moderates very slightly to
122.1%
.
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